After saturation of the market previously installed tanks, sold at dumping prices in the 1990s., Armored branch relives the typical boom. The importance of the use of tanks in modern theaters of war has been proven in the course of military operations the U.S. military in Iraq.
Still, the debate about the place and role of the MBT in modern armies lasts and, above all, in the United States.
Earlier, the U.S. had planned in 2030 to abandon the use of armored units by clicking on the first combat brigade of the "Striker", and then — to the modern concept of "Future Combat Systems".
On the basis of that future U.S. military will increasingly have the character "expedition", a number of congressmen and military believe that eliminate the need to have a lot of the heavy armor type MBT. In their opinion, despite the fact that MBT M1A2 SEP «Abrams" is one of the most modern models of guns the U.S. Army, the preservation of small production of tanks in the criteria of predictable tasks undertaken by the army of the future, not economically feasible. In this regard, the views of a number of military and influential members of the U.S. Congress in the upcoming variant is possible closure of production lines for assembly of tanks "Abrams" in order to save sredstv.No on the views of the majority of professionals, the closure of production lines for MBT "Abrams" no longer economically viable as well as the resumption of production (if necessary) will be 4 times more than the cost of its folding. The evidence that the outlook on the continuation of production prevails MBT, is the fact that in July 2011 the U.S. Army has requested $ 31 million for the modernization of the next batch of tanks M1A2 SEP «Abrams."
In addition, for example, the company ATK continues to develop new tank sabot shot M829E4 within the 3-year programs from a price of $ 77 million M829E4 — it's 120mm piercing shells of depleted uranium, created for the tank M1A2 SEP «Abrams." The new shot is a fifth generation of ammunition. It provides a defeat tanks with active protection on the huge distances.
According to the views of TSAMTO, the U.S. Army is likely to abandon plans for decommissioning the M1A2 main battle tanks "Abrams" and continue the program from their upcoming upgrade to M1A3 with the extension of the service life of up to 2050
PLACE MBT in the overall structure of world exports of armored vehicles
The role of MBT in the modern theater is also confirmed by large utilities that implemented a number of states to upgrade and improve existing parks tanks. It's like a national applets and purchases on import.
The highest rate of production for export MBT confirmed by statistics. For example, by elapsed period of four years (2007-2010 gg.) The volume of world exports of new MBT, according TSAMTO amounted to $ 7.956 billion. For this indicator, the MBT occupy second place, behind only the category of "new armored vehicles" ($ 10.35 billion.), And significantly outperform the category of "new armored fighting vehicles" ($ 4.507 billion)..
It should be seen that there is a category of MBT is the highest fraction (14% of the total price of the market) in the middle of 3 types of armored vehicles for the modernization and repair of equipment, the value of which is not included in this calculation, as these applets do not pass on price characteristics like new. For comparison: under 'armored', this rate (in volume terms) of 0.4% for BBM — 10%.
In general, the period from 2007 to 2010., the volume of world exports of MBT (including the supply of new tanks, licensed programs, the supply from the sun, all the programs of modernization and repair) is estimated TSAMTO in the amount of $ 9.254 billion. BBM for this amount (taking into account all programs) is $ 5.012 billion., For armored vehicles — $ 10.39 billion.
In the coming four-year period (2011-2014 gg.) In the case of the graphs of current contracts, and licensing programs when tenders world exports of new MBT will be $ 5.87 billion. For comparison: the forecast for the category of new armored vehicles for the same period was $ 9.692 billion., Armored cars — $ 4.11 billion. In the category of most MBT remain the highest fraction of the estimated Cost of deliveries of aircraft modernization and maintenance, the value of which is not considered here.
In addition, in the category of MBT is preparing to sign a number of agreements on the part of the supplies which can be implemented in the period under review. These applets are not included in this calculation, as long as they are treated as intentions.
WORLD MARKET MBT In 2007-2014 years.
In the ranking of the number of TSAMTO planned to supply new main battle tanks in 2011-2014. Our homeland by a wide margin from rivals take first place.
In the case of the graphs of current contracts, licensing programs when necessary, and the stated intentions of the tender exports MBT Russia in 2011-2014. amount to 688 units worth $ 1,979 billion., that is provided in the main big contract with India for the licensed assembly and creation of MBT T-90S.
For comparison: in the last four years (2007-2010 gg.) Our homeland has exported (including licensed software) 603 MBT in the amount of $ 1.879 billion.
In general, the volume of Russian exports of MBT in the period 2007-2014 years. estimated in 1291, the car in the amount of $ 3.858 billion.
Indian Army are naikrupneyshim customer Russian MBT. Our homeland is implementing this long-term program from the state for the production of T-90 MBT. In 2006 an agreement was signed for the licensed establishment in India to 2019 1000 MBT T-90S tanks. The price of all programs from an estimated $ 2.5 billion.
Our homeland absolutely graduated transfer Indian defense technology MBT T-90 at the end of 2008, allows for the complete cycle of production of tanks T-90S tanks on the ground in India. The plant engineering languid HVF (Heavy Vehicle Factory) at Avadi August 24, 2009 was accomplished ceremony of transfer of Indian Army first batch of 10 MBT T-90C (Indian designation "Bishma"), one hundred percent of India built on the ground under the agreement signed with Russian license. Sent tanks entered service 73rd Regiment NE India.
According to the plans, since 2010, the company HVF in Avadi once a year for a license to produce up to 100 MBT T-90C. In other words, our native
land, even in the absence of new contracts will dominate this sector of the market until at least 2020
In addition to the license agreement was signed a number of contracts for the supply of MBT T-90S. The first contract price of about $ 800 million (36,250 billion. Rupees) for the supply of 310 T-90S MBTs Our homeland has signed with India in 2001 MBT 124 were delivered as a finished product. Another 186 tanks of the party were assembled at the company Uralvagonzavod HVF set of kits. November 30, 2007 the Government of India signed with Russia a major new contract price of 49 billion rupees ($ 1,236,600,000.) For the purchase of 347 T-90S MBT, including 124 tanks in one hundred percent assembled and 223 units in the form of kits. In May 2009, India signed an agreement with Russia on additional supply kits 50 MBT T-90S.
T-90S tanks evenly will change outdated standards, including T-55 and of early versions of the T-72. In total, by 2020 BC in India are planning to get a 1700 T-90 MBT.
Purchase of tanks being implemented within the framework of the plan to build 21 regiment manned MBT T-90S and 40 regiments, armed with will consist of modernized T-72M1 "Aja." According to current plans by 2020, the total number of MBT T-90S and T-72M1 in service NE India will be about 3,800 units.
Subsequent purchases MBT T-90S can be realized by increasing their production under license by 1000 MBT T-90S. It may be in this case, if India have difficulties with the implementation of programs from the state for the production of tanks produced by "Arjun Mk1» and «Arjun Mk2», as the delay in the implementation of development programs from the state MBT last generation.
During his visit to Russia in March this year, the delegation of the plant engineering languid HVF held negotiations to agree and sign the contract documents for the supply device in 2011-2012. at the request of the Indian side. During the meeting issues of mutual cooperation open a discussion concerning applets MBT T-90. At the current time is the spice of Russian assistance in the licensed production of large assemblies of products supplied T-90, and their warranty support the troops.
Apart from India in the period under review were the recipients of Russian MBT Azerbaijan, Algeria, Venezuela, Cyprus, Syria, Turkmenistan, and Uganda. According to the report submitted by Russia to the UN Register for 2010 for the supply of ordinary weapons and military equipment, in the category of "battle tanks" declared delivery 20 and 27 MBT India MBT Cyprus.
So Makar, Our homeland graduated delivery of finished products in India by the treaty of 2007 by 347 T-90 MBTs in the amount of $ 1.237 billion. (In 2008 delivered 24 MBTs, in 2009 — 80 units in 2010 — 20 units). The remaining tanks, in accordance with the contract, will be produced under license in India.
The Ministry of Defence of Cyprus in 2009 signed a contract for the supply of the State Guard 41 MBT T-80U/UK of $ 156 million of them, according to the report, in 2010 delivered 27 MBTs. The remaining cars are likely to be transferred first year.
In 2010, the media reported the delivery of Turkmen 6 MBT T-90, but in the UN Register of the data presented is not our homeland. In May 2011, Russia delivered to Venezuela, the first batch of 35 main battle tanks T-72B1. In September 2009, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced the purchase in Russia in general difficulties 92 T-72 tanks.
MBT feature of the global market in the period 2007-2014 years. will be a substantial strengthening of the position of China. At the moment, China's ranking in TSAMTO over the period 2007-2014 years. until the 4th place (298 MBTs worth about $ 662.5 million).
China's entry into the world market MBT has provided Pakistan with the co-operative project of the tank MBT-2000, which is also supplied in Morocco and Myanmar. Detailed disk imaging on the number of MBT, which will purchase Pakistan in the coming years, there is no (previously reported intention to produce under license additional 300 tanks), as long as payment is made in China to 2010 inclusive. Noteworthy that in the period 2007-2010. China to quantify the volume of exports went to the MBT rating TSAMTO to second place after Russia.
To date, the second place in the ranking TSAMTO over the period 2007-2014. The U.S. is (457 cars valued at $ 4,971,000,000.). In 2007-2010. were exported 262 MBTs for $ 2.376 billion. In the period of 2011-2014. predictable amount of supply will be 195 MBTs for $ 2.595 billion. The third place in the period of 2007-2014 years. is Germany (348 cars valued at $ 3,487,000,000.). Greatest results headed for Germany in the first four-year period (2007-2010 gg.) In connection with the sale of licensed production of tank "Leopard 2" in Greece and Spain. In 2007-2010. for export (including licensed programs) was delivered 272 MBTs for $ 2.671 billion. For the period of 2011-2014. portfolio while Germany is 76 new vehicles in the amount of $ 816.6 million fifth place in the period 2007-2014. delivery Malaysia MBT PT-91M «Tvardy" takes Poland (48 tanks in the amount of $ 368 million USD). This agreement was the sudden the market for new cars and, most likely, it will remain the only achievement of Poland in this area.
It must be emphasized that in the category of "tender" for the period of 2011-2014. including the intention to purchase Sun Thailand large batch of MBT. If the message about winning the competition Ukrainian tank "Hold" confirmed, Ukraine will take fourth place in the export of MBT in 2011-2014.
The following ratings, taking into account the 2015 and beyond, will also be in South Korea with the start of production under license in Turkey's new MBT K-2.
Overall, in the period from 2007 to 2010. The world was exported in 2950 OBT of $ 9.254 billion. Of this, the market for new tanks was 1483 units in the amount of $ 7,956,000,000., Representing 50.27% of the total amount and 85.97% of the price of the global supply.
In the future period of four years (2011-2014 gg.), In the case of the delivery schedules of current contracts, and the intentions of the tender, predictable sales of new tanks will reach 1,079 units, valued at $ 5.87 billion.
In percentage terms, the global market for new MBT in 2011-2014. compared with 2007-2010 years. amount to 72.8% in terms of quantity and 73.8% — in value. At the same time it is necessary to emphasize that absolutely portfolio of orders for MBT for the period of 2011-2014. not yet formed. Given the promising global market volume of contracts MBT in 2011-2014. will in fact be similar to the prior four-year period.
Following the procedure TSAMTO, in the category of "new" includes the delivery of new tanks at the cost of more than $ 2 million, license applets, also supply the Armed Forces of the MBT-exporting countries, upgraded to the level of new machines with an extended service life, the value of which at the time of delivery is more than 50 % of the price of a new tank of the same type at the same time.
During the reporting period, the supply MBT, which are not included in cost parameter in the category of "new", as implemented in Austria, Belarus, Belgium, England, Israel, Spain, the Netherlands, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Finland, Czech Republic, Chile, Switzerland and South Korea .
Larger EXPECTED IN THE CATEGORY OF PURCHASE MBT
Saudi Arabia. First of July this year, the German government approved the sale of Saudi Arabia's tank "Leopard 2". Riyadh is interested in buying up to 250 MBT "Leopard 2". Price applets estimated at $ 3 billion. euro. Besides the implementation of tanks possible agreement provides for training of personnel and service vehicles.
Initially, negotiations for the sale of Saudi Arabia tank "Leopard 2" started in Spain, then Germany intervened in the negotiations as the developer of the MBT. Talks about the ability of the Riyadh MBT made on the basis of the draft produced in Spain tank "Leopard 2A6" defense agencies 2-states started in the autumn of last year. Saudi spetsy also able to see the abilities of tanks "Leopard 2E" (an improved version of "Leopard-2A6») on the Spanish sites.
According to TSAMTO, the contract will be awarded to the Spanish company "General Dynamics Santa Barbara Sistemas," and the German "Krauss-Maffei Wegmann" and "Rheinmetall" will act as the main suppliers of the devices.
Egypt. The Agency for Defense Security Cooperation (DSCA) U.S. Defense Department in July of this year, has notified Congress of a proposed sale to Egypt assembly kits MBT M1A1 «Abrams" is also linked to the contract services and equipment with a cost of $ 1.329 billion. within applets "Foreign Military Sales."
The Egyptian government has asked the United States to request the purchase of 125 assembly kits MBT M1A1 «Abrams." The main contractor of the contract will be the American company "General Dynamics." The program can be implemented at the Egyptian Tank Plant number 200, which already has an assembly creation to produce M1A1.
Rassredotachivanie modicum of markets for new tanks in 2007-2010.
Rassredotachivanie modicum of markets for new tanks in 2011-2014.
Egypt is a major market for U.S. sales MBT (India as a market for the Russian Federation). Therefore, let us recall the history of "tank" of relations 2-states. Under the terms of the initial agreement signed in 1988 between the United States and Egypt, the Egyptian army has received 555 tanks, M1A1, 25 of which were collected in the United States by "General Dynamics Land Systems." The assembly was made up to 1996 First 2000 "General Dynamics Land Systems," received contract price of $ 156 million for the supply of an additional 100 sets of MBT M1A1, which were delivered from 2001 to 2003. In 2002, the command of armored vehicles and weapons of the U.S. Army concluded with "General Dynamics' contract price of $ 141 million to support the assembly in Egypt 2-parties" Abrams ", 200 tanks. In 2004, Egypt signed a contract to supply an additional 125 sets of MBT M1A1 «Abrams", bringing the total number to 880. In 2008 was ordered another batch of 125 MBT.
Ethiopia. According to unconfirmed disk imaging, in June this year, the Ministry of Defence of Ethiopia signed with SC "Ukrspecexport" contract for the supply of 200 T-72 MBT (of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). The deal is estimated at $ 100 million
Bangladesh. The Government of Bangladesh in June this year decided to purchase in China 44 new MBT MBT-2000, and 3 armored recovery vehicles as part of the modernization plan implemented by the country's armed forces.
Argentina. Ground forces of Argentina and the Israeli company "Elbit Systems" in May of this year signed an agreement to supply equipment for the modernization of tanks 230 TAM (Tanque Argentino Mediano — Argentine Medium Tank).
Thailand. Command of the Armed Forces of Thailand in March this year decided to purchase the Ukraine party of 200 MBT "Hold." Purchase price is estimated at $ 7 billion. baht (about $ 232 million).
In conclusion, it must be emphasized that the work on the development of state of the last generation MBT lead our homeland, India, Turkey, South Korea and some other countries. A huge number of states are working to upgrade their existing armed with the most modern models of MBT (USA, France, England, Germany). Because we talk about "sunset" era tanks appear early.
Vladimir Y. Schwartz — Deputy Director of the Center for Analysis of World Trade instrument (TSAMTO)