One of the criteria for identifying the main threats is the degree to which the implementation of risk can lead to a snowballing chain processes of decay, death, threatening the whole. These dangers can be considered critical. The word "death" in the appendix to this great system, as a civilization, country, folk, almost always need to be aware of as a metaphor (except in the case of natural disasters that threaten the very existence of a habitable Earth).
In the course of a long discussion we compiled a list of a dozen such basic threats.
1. The threat of collapse (dismantling) of the people and the disintegration of society
This breaking of bonds that connect people to people, and damage of devices that weave these connections, "repairing" and updating them. Peoples — a product of culture, the result of the creative work of many generations. Communication, people are pulling together in people, lend themselves to the study, and means and influence for the purpose of easing the conversion and tear. Modern anthropology provides the scientific basis for the creation of technology such impacts.
The core of — the Russian people, which itself has absorbed a lot of tribes. Their "fused" Orthodoxy common historical destiny with its dangers and wars, the Russian government, language, and culture. By the mid-twentieth century, the historical people of the Russian Federation was formed in the multi-ethnic civilization plainclothes — Russian people. The operation to dismantle the Russian people since the late 1980s, first knocked on his Russian core, but also on the connectivity of other peoples of the Russian Federation. This operation creates and runs home to this day threat to Russia.
People — the subject of history and the holder of the country. Loosening it deprives him of connectivity transpersonal memory, reason and faith. Hence — the crisis of all other systems. Namely, there is the potential degradation of the major socio-cultural communities of. There is a rich declassing process large numbers of workers and the collapse of many communities prof. So, already there have been dramatic quantitative reduction and loss of system parameters communities and skilled industrial workers organized workers in agriculture, scientific and technical intelligentsia.
Anomie (literally lawlessness beznormnost) — is a spiritual and social pathology, the disintegration of human relationships and the disruption of public institutions, the general deviant and criminal behavior. This is a condition in which a significant portion of society deliberately violates the known standards of ethics and law. They say that "in the past of their own forms of anomie means destruction of society."
Entire social groups in the state of anomie cease to feel their involvement in the community, is their alienation, the new social norms and values are rejected by members of these groups. The uncertainty of social status, loss of a sense of solidarity lead to an increase in deviant and self-destructive behavior.
Trigger this chain process has become a "cultural trauma" inflicted population structural changes. As a basic premise of anomie called social and economic upheavals and the depletion of a large portion of the population. Often specified as a sense of injustice and the inability to influence the course of events. In sociology, describes a wide range of manifestations of anomie, from the Myagenko — conformity and mimicry to unmotivated murder and suicide. These manifestations have begun in the early stages of reform, and the society was not ready for them.
3. The threat of the collapse of the system of international relations ("living people")
Our home for four centuries has made a special type of co-existence of a huge number of people and nationalities in one state. It is fundamentally different from the models of other civilizations. Eastern Slavs, connecting to the Russian people, found a method to collect on the tremendous space of non-colonial empire type.
There were no ethnic cleansing and genocide of peoples even more so, there was no systematic of forced assimilation was not created "ethnic melting pot," melds all peoples and nations in the modern civilization, there was no apartheid, fixing different peoples in different niches of civilization.
Since the late 1980s, the mechanism of the glue that held this system is in crisis. One of the main shock, which aimed at the transformation of Russian living arrangement has been focused on the mechanism of the glue that held together the system of ethnic communities of.
4. The threat of degradation of the optimal culture of thinking
For the life of the industrial countries, a general mastery of the tools of optimal thinking — the appropriate language of contemporary reality, logical reasoning abilities, "the spirit of prudence" (measure), and the design skills of reflection. All of these tools and capabilities were very damaged in the process languid long crisis.
At the moment the consciousness of society, including its economic and political elite, randomized and sovladevaet with puzzles that put the imperatives of reconstruction and development. Sharply decreased the quality of decisions and management, appeared anomalous areas where decisions are the worst of all possible solutions. Inadvertent damage will not occur, the inertia of the optimum degradation of consciousness big. The future development of this process — a universal threat.
5. Deteriorating health and reduce the cultural level of the population
The reform has caused heavy damage to the population. Aggravated by physical and mental health of most people of all ages and RF social groups: people sick, literally. Very high fraction of kids who appear unwell or become ill after the birth. Incidence rises "social" diseases, particularly tuberculosis.
Fall formal and high performance level of education, there are niches of ignorance and obscurantism. Fell to reddish features and falling qualification main groups of workers. There are communities, "gnaw" structures of civilization. There comes a "civilization slums" where people are accustomed to their own contemporary culture.
These processes do not stop or stabilize at the very highest level of danger.
6. "Introduction" of the system needs to disparate realities of the Russian Federation
"Export needs" — one of the main tools in the civilizational wars of the West against the "barbarians." Now it is used against Russia. Two decades is a rich ideological campaign to discredit the values unassuming, means of mass-culture stereotypes embedded in Western society, with its use of the prestige scale. Advertising standards imposed by hard-drinking and unfulfilled desires cause massive frustration and deviant behavior, especially among young people.
The operation of information-psychological war against Russia, and takes breaks the bonds of human solidarity, without which overcome the crisis.
7. The threat of degradation of the system of powe
r and control
Country — the plane, and the power and control — his crew. From his training, health and conscience of life depends on the country.
Over the 90 years left the deepest drop features and high-quality management personnel, and the entire system of governance in general. At the highest positions people came who had no idea of the systems in which they had to manage. Due to the continuous adjustments and administrative staff to move these people do not connect their future with a certain object of control and master the knowledge of him. Often they are forced to take brutal attitude towards the spice that adds the quality of decisions.
Of all the social groups particularly at the higher echelons of management thinking is accompanied by a loss of optimal sharpest separation from common sense. This is exacerbated by the enlarged reproduction of corruption.
Municipal officials instinct forces pull the strap, but the threat is built up, as the process of degradation reached the self-acceleration mode, and healing programs from there.
8. The crisis of legitimacy of power and the threat of the "orange" revolutions
The post-Soviet power can not overcome the crisis of legitimacy — a lack of authority, convincing people that this government guarantees the life of the country and the people. As a result, insufficient active support of government by the majority. Up to a maximum narrowed social base of power: its cadres are selected from a narrow layer of "their".
The crisis of legitimacy was softened by the arrival of Vladimir Putin, who received a great credit. It served as a stabilizing factor in the government and is a principal resource in overcoming the crisis. But this resource is wasted, and the crisis deepens, while in a latent form, but with unsafe breakdowns. The highest rating of the president or the prime minister at a very low confidence in the government (the formula of "good government — evil ministers") — a symptom of risk.
A huge number of surveys in recent years have shown a high degree of alienation of the population from the government. For many dilemmas in the mass consciousness formed the view that the power is not acting for the benefit of the population, and to the detriment of him.
There was a delicate balance, destabilization which can be achieved is comparable small impacts. Culture and characterization of a peremptory top of her mental and teams do not meet the challenges that are contained in the current "orange" developments.
These technologies make it possible with a relatively small cost to create a controlled political crises. The only method for the government to overcome this danger — go for honest and open public dialogue, but it is associated with a number of difficult political and methodological problems.
9. "Disclosure" of the Russian Federation and the threat of an outflow of resources it needed for its own reproduction
Until next time, the economy of the Russian Federation was formed by the type of "family farms", which fundamentally differs from the "market economy". The family resources and efforts are not bought and sold, and the stack. The reform of the past 20 years have not yet been able to completely convert the type of economy of. But the economy of the family can not "disclose" outside the market, acting on the principle of profit maximization businessman — he would suck out of the "family" by all means.
Outside trade should be regulated on the basis of the principle of maximizing the benefits of the whole (of the country). Since the beginning of reform over the limit were to cross the huge amounts of resources are scarce for the development and maintenance of even the Russian economy, especially the capital, raw materials and energy in various forms — oil and gas, metals and fertilizers. The financial system was set up to sub-optimization of individual companies. Adoption of the rules of the WTO in the current state is fraught with increased this trend. There is a threat of loss of a number of strategic industries and areas of scientific and technological activities.
10. The threat of loss of education and science
School — "genetic mechanism" of the state of culture. Its main task — no training in technical abilities, and education — the transfer to the next generation of implicit cognition and moral values, accumulated over centuries by the people. Russian school, in which the base on a model developed during a half-century Russian culture, builds and plays a huge Russian civilization. The attempt of breaking the public school leads to severe cultural crisis and long-term chaos. Such an attempt is made and in Russia since the beginning of the 1990s. Even personal, though fundamentally reform element — USE — caused great tension in society and sustainable conscious rejection.
The meaning of school reform — to change the cultural and social type of the Russian school of the type of the western school, worked out in the course of the French Revolution stateliness. Western School plays no people, and the classes. This is a "school of 2-corridors" — one for the "elite" and the other — for the "masses." People get out of school 2-different cultural types. Elimination of the Russian school of resisting both teachers and ancestors. This resistance is spontaneous and unorganized, but stubborn. If it wins, it will cause very great harm to the Russian Federation.
The same can be said of the higher education and science. We grew their homeland 300 years. They are arranged in a different way, if the West. Thus, the Russian universities "produce" specific type of spices — the Russian intelligentsia. The transition to the Bologna system, the configuration of the social order requiring the university and training programs, thus changing the cultural genotype educated stratum of.
Similarly, the social organization of science and the way of, the adequacy of its culture and statehood, provided the ultimate viability of the scientific society in the most demanding criteria and specific "Russian style", allows us to solve large problems with very modest means. He made a plausible and achievements in the development of, and its military victories. Russian science — a remarkable cultural phenomenon, the wealth of the world population.
Now science — one of the necessary foundations of the Russian Federation as a civilization, without it we will not survive. Too many kinds of knowledge, which is extracted and stored scholars of, can not be purchased abroad for any money. For 90 years our science almost suffocated, but it can still be revived. But it starts a new round of "reform" in order to break down the cultural genotype of Russian science and reincarnate it into a "profitable small business."
The loss prevailing in Russia higher education and science threatens the deepest strain of society and the loss of cultural independence with uncertain prospects.
11. The threat of degradation of the production system and life-support systems
The reform has led to a decline in production at about two times (in mechanical engineering — 6 times). The last 8 years (except for the period beginning in 2008, a new crisis) experienced growth — thanks in the main load of idle capacity. But the parallel is inexorable process of aging and retirement of fixed assets and capacities in the absence of investment, sufficient for them to Polga repair, refurbishment and modernization.
Investments in the past 20 years, commensurate with the scale of the failure. Patching holes and extraordinary emergency measures do not compensate for the energetic processes of aging and degradation. Recovery programs from major foundations and the whole industrial fabric of the country do not. State of many systems close to critical, and at any
moment could start snowballing process failures and accidents with languid consequences.
The degradation of the life support systems of their own type — this is the same process as the destruction of the manufacturing base. The difference is that when you stop many productions we can lend a certain number of times due to the sale of oil and gas, and at a mass refusal to freeze heat on the first chilly winter. And on the verge of such failure — whole blocks of housing. During the 1990s, have withdrawn from the housing depreciation, did not maintain a complete home renovation, do not transfer water pipes and heating systems. Trying to pass these costs on the population or local government untenable in this area to attract private capital because of its heavy losses.
12. The threat of liquidation of the Russian army
Army — main support at least some of civilization, the basic subsistence of the people. His birthplace of our modern army grew as science, 300 years. In the army embodied the main meanings and codes of cultural values and worldviews. Since 1991, the samples are made to change the cultural type of Russian army, reincarnate it into a "power structure", flegmantichnuyu to the dilemma of good and evil. Army — the defender of the people want to recycle Professor "Security Company".
It is not yet possible and most likely will not work. But the pull of the spiritual core of the army, and deprive the combat effectiveness can be. So it was almost all because we do not lusted realize what our army is different from the Western armies hired, what exactly is it so keen to break. Loss of self-government army — basic threat. This threat may be in its implementation to cause the collapse of the multiplier effect of many cultural norms.