Since 2025 the PAK FA and F-35 will be non-alternative products on the world market fighters

Two experienced reference PAK FA recently performed the first public flight at MAKS-2011. The flight of fighters followed by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Both fighters made several aerobatic maneuvers, including clearance to the lowest possible height. Complex parts of the pilots did not do as well as seasoned standards through a stage of flight tests.

At the moment, in the program of flight tests involving two layout PAK FA, the next benchmark is used for static tests.

As President Mikhail Pogosyan, UAC, until the end of 2011 to join the flight test program there are two layout PAK FA.

The other day, the first major public presentation of a number of Russian PAK-FA and zabugornyh media said the needs assessment of the global market in these fighters. Namely, referring to the president KLA Misha Pogosyan told the media that the need for fighter T-50 (PAK FA) is estimated at 600., Including the Russian Air Force — 200., Indian Air Force — 200. FGFA (created on the basis of the PAK FA), another 200 aircraft will be delivered for export to other countries.

Since 2025 the PAK FA and F-35 will be non-alternative products on the world market fightersAccording to the views of TSAMTO, this estimate seems very "modest" for such a large-scale applets.

The forecast TSAMTO year ago by promising deliveries PAK FA 13 countries attended, including two countries from the region of North Africa — Libya and Egypt.

Due to force majeure events in the Middle East and North Africa that it was impossible to predict in advance, TSAMTO adjusted its economic forecasts for the supply of PAK FA. From the new forecast for the current moment, these two countries are excluded. All the same, regardless of the internal political situation in these countries, TSAMTO not rule out that at some stage they will again be included in the forecast of the supply in the longer term. In any case, these two countries will continue to be in the interests of Russia as a multi-role fighters importers fifth generation.

Another event, which was also impossible to predict in advance, was the inclusion of the South Korean agency DAPA fighter PAK FA in a tender for the purchase of 60 air force fighter of the last generation.

Agency programs, defense procurement Defense of the Republic of Korea (DAPA) wants to launch a tender for the purchase of the latest generation of stealth fighter first of next year and to select a supplier by October 2012. The project FX-3 South Korea wants to change was in service obsolete aircraft F-4E and F-5E / F.

According to an estimate DAPA, the acquisition cost of the project 60 stealth fighter fifth generation will reach 8.29 trillion won (7.86 billion dollars). As expected, the favorite of the tender will be announced in October next year.

Our homeland is included in the number of applicants with the aircraft PAK FA. In a small list of candidates also includes "Lockheed Martin" with the F-35 "Lightning 2", "Boeing" with the F-15SE «Silent Eagle" and the consortium "Eurofighter" with EF-2000 "Typhoon".

At the moment TSAMTO the chances of winning the PAK FA in South Korean tender as small, and does not include the Republic of Korea to the list of potential importers of the PAK FA. Yet, TSAMTO considering the fact of inclusion in the list of the PAK FA applicants as soon as the principal event from the standpoint of the actual start programs from advertising to promote the PAK FA in the world market.

According to forecasts TSAMTO, within the production utilities that calculated for the period of the entire production cycle, in other words until about 2050-2055 years., Will be made more than 1,000 units. PAK FA. The expected order of Russian Air Force will be from 200 to 250 cars.

To date, members of the PAK FA applets are our homeland and India. Order India projected at 250 units.

Among the probable importers PAK FA included Algeria (approximate amount Jobs — 2025-2030.), Argentina (2035-2040 gg.), Brazil (2030-2035.), Venezuela (2027-2032 gg.), Vietnam (2030 -2035 gg.), Indonesia (2028-2032 gg.), Iran (in the case of lifting the embargo on arms supplies, 2035-2040 gg.), Kazakhstan (2025-2035 gg.), China (under certain conditions, 2025-2035 gg.), Malaysia (2035-2040 gg.), Syria (2025-2030 gg.).

In general, the amount of the probable order of these states TSAMTO estimated at 274-388 cars.

Geography export PAK FA can be significantly broader than presented above, namely, through the states of the CIS. Not be ruled out as an option that a number of Western European states will become customers in the future PAK FA, adapted to their requirements.

The forecast is based on the fact that in the period from 2025 onwards PAK FA and F-35 will be non-alternative products on the world market for modern functional fighter. Maybe in some states konkurentnst Russia and the U.S. will reach China. Other countries which have declared an intention to create a fighter fifth generation, is unlikely to fail to reach the devil, close to the Russian and South American cars. This applies to both technologies and missed time (for example, on the program from the development of the euro fighter fourth generation "Eurofighter" took more than 20 years).

In 2025 the absolute majority of countries in the world that pay tribute to the development of military aviation, it will satisfy their needs in the procurement of fighter generations 4, 4 + and 4 + +, and they will face the question of the purchase of aircraft fifth generation to substitute obsolete machines fourth generation of the first batches that were set in the 1990s.

In this context, the main Competitive struggle after 2025 will unfold between the Russian PAK-FA and South American F-35 "Lightning 2".

The advantage of the F-35 is that it has previously Russian fighter enters the world market. This "handicap" is 5 to 7 years. On the other hand, this advantage is offset by the fact that many countries in the world, with its own air force in the parks decent fighter aircraft in 2025 will continue to intensively buy fighter of the 4 + and 4 + +, while the supply of F-35 in the period up to 2025 limited to only those countries that are parties to the applets. With all of this far is not the fact that these countries will buy in the coming specifically F-35, or purchase them in the amounts that were initially announced. It is related to the appreciation of applets and significant delay its schedule.

The general contractor of programs from the F-35 is the "Lockheed Martin", which sells it along with the companies, "Northrop Grumman" and "BAE Systems". U.S. partners in work on the F-35 program there in step development and demonstration of the system are 8 states — England, Netherlands, Italy, Turkey, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Australia. Singapore and Israel are cut into it as the participants do not share risk.

Trivial weakness programs from the F-35 will be that all the other countries, interested in the procurement of the F-35, will be able to receive them only through the mechanism of selling military equipment to countries on zabugornom programmke FMS (Foreign Military Sales), which does not provide for offset agreements or local verbovaniya industry, which is not very profitable to those countries that have focused on the development of state of the aviation industry.

The initial calculation was based on the fact that partner countries can buy 722 fighter: Australia — 100, Canada — 60, Denmark
— 48, Italy — 131, The Netherlands — 85 Norway — 48, Turkey — 100 and England — 150 (90 for Air Force and 60 for the Navy). Requirements 2-neriskoradelyayuschih partners — Singapore and Israel, have been identified in 100 and 75. respectively. In other words, only 897 units., And given the order the Air Force, Navy and USMC — 3340 pcs.

In view of the likely sales of the F-35 to other customers, to 2045-2050. , the total number of aircraft forecast made in the amount of 4,500 units. But at the moment due to the appreciation of the significant correction in the smallest way, first, on the part of the United States.

In the middle of possible customers, who are not party programs from the F-35, it is necessary to emphasize Spain, which had expressed its intention to purchase the F-35B.

Fighter F-35 is seen as a possible candidate to win the tenders BBC Land of the Rising Sun (up to 100 units.) And South Korea (60 pcs.).

At the moment, it is all the list of "nearest" probable customers F-35, although the "Lockheed Martin" is in talks with a number of other countries, including in Asia and the Middle East regions.

Taking into account, problems that can occur in a number of potential customers F-35 fighter jets, the company "Boeing" has developed a very experienced fighter model F-15SE «Silent Eagle", which are used in the construction of aircraft technology, the fifth generation, including reducing radar signature coverage, conformal placement of weapons systems, digital avionics, and V-shaped tail.

"Boeing" assesses the potential market for the aircraft F-15SE to 190 cars. First plane can be put foreign customer in 2012.

Budding version is designed, first, for the international market. "Boeing" wants to offer the Air Force F-15SE Land of the Rising Sun, South Korea, Singapore, Israel and Saudi Arabia, which is currently being operated F-15 aircraft. "Boeing" and hopes that intrigued in the purchase of new F-15SE will express those States Air Force, who were planning to buy fighter fifth generation F-35 "Lightning 2", but due to the significant increase in its prices can not allow itself to its purchase.

At the same time, the prospects F-15SE limited time. He can make konkurentnst other manufacturers only for the transition period, in other words, until 2025, when most of the states on the one hundred percent satisfied their need for fighters fourth generation.

This transition period, the company "Sukhoi", according to the developed long-term strategy, the main emphasis is on the promotion of the Su-35.

Su-35 — is a deeply functional upgraded super-maneuverable fighter of the 4 + +. It utilizes technology fifth generation, providing an advantage over similar class fighters.

While maintaining the aerodynamic form, suitable for family aircraft Su-27/30, fighter The Su-35 is a superbly-date machine. Namely, it has a reduced radar signature, a new avionics suite based on information and management system, the new on-board radar with a phased antenna array with an increased number immediately tracked and engaged targets at long range detection.

The Su-35 is set 117S engine with thrust vector control. This engine is created as a result of deep modernization of the AL-31F and has a thrust of 14.5 tons, up 2 tons exceeds the basic characteristics of the engine. 117S engine is the layout engine fifth-generation.

With the Su-35 Company "Sukhoi" sees its future in the coming world market fighters. This machine should take place between the functional fighter Su-30MK aircraft and promising 5th generation.

The Su-35 will allow the company "Sukhoi" remain competitive to market a fighter of the 5th generation. The bulk of export Su-35 will be in the period of 2012-2022.

From the perspective of market promotion without significance is the fact that the probable adaptation of the Su-35 under the cannon of western production.

Deliveries of the Su-35 is planned for export to South-East Asia, Africa, the Near East and South America. Among the likely customers of the Su-35 deal with such countries as Libya, Venezuela, Brazil, Algeria, Syria, Egypt, and perhaps China. Russian Air Force, in turn, plan to form a 2-3 regiment of Su-35. Total production programm Su-35 is estimated at 200 machines, including about 140 units. — For export.

Right to the end of the Su-35 deliveries to the market will begin to enter the PAK FA (from about 2020).

The claimed technical properties of the PAK FA correspond to the most perfect for today South American fighter F-22, whose task is to provide advantages in the air.

Stealth aircraft will provide its profile. In addition, the introduction of special coatings and materials, suction and do not reflect radar signals, will plane virtually imperceptible to the enemy radar.

Aircraft F-16C / E, F-15C / E and F/A-18A-F fail to properly resist the PAK FA. As to F-35, it is presently experiencing difficulty in combating SU-35 with its low ESR. At its upcoming planned decrease in the PAK-FA F-35 fighter will experience another great difficulties.

Production programm on the F-35 will end by about 2045-2050. PAK FA — to 2055. From now on, right up to the end of the XXI century, the United States and the birthplace of our focus on service supplied aircraft. Once this transition period will begin on the sixth-generation fighter features that have to be unmanned.

Full transition to these systems is inevitable, but in reality it will not begin until the 2050's. and will apply only to the leading world powers. The gradual transition to unmanned aircraft in the second half of the XXI century will be validated as technical improvement combat aircraft, as well as purely physiological constraints on management abilities of pilots fighters. Complete replacement of manned aircraft to UAVs in the leading countries of the world is expected around the end of the XXI century, in other words, at the time of cancellation of the last manned fighter fifth generation, set in the 2050-2055 years.

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