Sun — like a spinning spacecraft, which are the most powerful guns. From time to time they are unpredictable shoot into space. If we are not lucky enough to accurately hit a volley into the Earth, will not find it. Once this has been, when, due to a jump in solar activity disrupted electricity in Canada and the United States. In addition, the moon affects can be, not only on the tides. And little by little, in centimeters per year, moving magnetic poles. If this process is accelerated, then the world may well be like in the song: "And where the pole was there tropics, where New York — Nakhichevan." Earth's magnetic field protects us from the same solar and cosmic particles. It will switch from plus to minus — and the climate may change completely.
Georgy Grechko, a cosmonaut, led forecast for ORT
Head meteorologist Roman Vilfand: This winter is frosty
Forecasters claim that they can predict the weather. Why did her whims take us by surprise?
Recently in Italy, was sentenced to a prison term of seismologists … for the incorrect prediction! The authorities accused them of what they have calmed citizens before the devastating earthquake in L'Aquila. And the court was not convinced by the many expert opinions that the earthquake is almost impossible to predict … We have to planting has not yet come. However, for the unexpected by meteorological hail threatened to sue local sinoptikovglava Kemerovo Governor Aman Tuleyev — but the only shrugged: Well, there is one hundred percent accuracy in predictions! But is this really what we expect in the near future and why the forecast helps those who help themselves — this experts told the "AIF".
About Weather anomalies, and the coming winter as a forecast of "AIF" has talked with the director of Russian meteorologist Roman Vilfand.
Everything goes out of the ocean
"AIF": — The number of accidents in the natural world increases. This is due to global warming?
RV: — Climatologists say the real, albeit rather slowly, the upward trend in the number of hazards. And quite heterogeneous: droughts, heavy precipitation, tropical cyclones, and the most dangerous — storms, squalls. Scientists generally compare the trend of global warming, explaining that in the surface temperature rises, the energy of the atmosphere increases, and therefore, a dangerous phenomenon, often associated with the movement of air masses in the vertical. In the world, of course, there are regions in which the trend is not observed, and even the temperature is about the same. But there is increasing variability events. That is, within one year of very strong heat, for another — a significant cold. As an academician Golitsyn said in a warming atmosphere becomes more nervous.
"AIF": — Recently for Hydromet for huge money was acquired supercomputer. But the forecast for the summer did not materialize. Money spent in vain?
RV: — You're talking about the long-term prognosis. But they are almost independent of the supercomputer. For improving long-term forecasts are needed in the first permanent research and development. Plus require detailed study of the processes in the oceans. Because that's where the heat comes, which is the main driver of change in the long term forecast. Over the past 20 years, the quality of weather forecasts for the month improved by about 15%. Much. And today it is 70%, ie, in two out of three opravdyvaetsya.Kstati forecast, the forecast for the summer — 2012 just come true. And the most meaningful, significant progress we have achieved thanks to a supercomputer in the forecast for 5-6 days. Now, we're more accurate predictions, especially in terms of rainfall — from the 2010 success in European Russia have higher than for other foreign models. Well, expanded the range of forecasts, in particular, has been making them for different layers of the atmosphere, which is important for aircraft.
Instructions for Survival
"AIF": — Forecasts have learned to do better, but here in Krymsk, for example, timely information to the public about the trouble just was not communicated. What to do?
RV: — Contact the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology with the MOE is very close and fruitful. All our predictions related to fires, floods, with rapid flood, immediately transferred to the MOE, and I can see how decisions are specific, clear measures. But in Krymsk MOE was powerless, there is a lack of professionalism demonstrated the power structures. They are needed because only one thing — time to warn people of the danger. When it is a very dangerous phenomenon, as a tropical cyclone, which was released on the U.S. — the most important task and meteorologists, and the people in power, it is one thing — to save lives. And so it is today in our country is a real problem. The warning system should be developed to reach not just to each community — to each house. Plus everyone in the danger zone should have a clear understanding of what action it should take when receiving a signal of danger: to climb the mountain, for example, or go down to the basement.
"AIF": — In Soviet times it was all worked out?
RV: — In my view, the responsibility at the time was more.
"AIF": — There is an idea to punish forecasters for incorrect forecasts …
RV: — Punishment — the flip side of stimulation. But in this case no matter how stimulating, however punish always be a small percentage nesbyvaemosti. Today, the probability of weather for a day is estimated at 95%, but that five percent of the remains! And there's nothing to be done. There are processes that are simply impossible to accurately predict. For example, moving to Moscow front with variable speed, and estimated the most likely to say that it will be the city at midnight. But there is a chance that it will be upon us at 6 am, or, conversely, is faster and comes at 10 pm. This situation is always in meteorology — a hundred years, a hundred thousand years.
"AIF": — It is said, the winter will be a very cold. Is that so?
RV: — If we compare the upcoming season with the last two warm, slushy winters, which exceeded the norm by 4-5 degrees, this winter will be significantly frosty.
"AIF": — And that promise for the winter season to other countries?
RV: — It's nothing. The fact is that no country, except Russia, these projections are not made public. They do, but only for highly specialized uses for the structures that are well aware of the low level sbyvaemosti.
"AIF": — Youth today is your profession, not deterred by difficulties, lack of money?
RV: — I am almost 40 years working in the weather, and every time I come here with pleasure. Modern meteorology (both science and high technology, and operational and production activities and expeditions) allows different people to realize themselves.
A resident of the Belarusian town Chashniki Stanislav Stankovo successfully predicts the weather in his Vitebsk under last year's data … of the Omsk region. And Muscovites advisable to look into last year's weather reports Ust-Kamenogorsk. Stankovo said, the rotation of the Earth from west to east atmospheric "shirt", significantly behind the "body" is shifted to the west. For 8 years, this lag is a full circle. Ie for the year — 360:8 = 45 degrees. Therefore, in Vitebsk is about the same weather as it was in the past year in Omsk. The accuracy of such predictions — 75-80%.
Another forecaster, Professor of Mariupol Eugene Kapustin, take into account the relationship of the two parameters of the weather — temperature and pressure. Climate, according to the scientist, to be cyclical. And this cycle is equal to two cycles of solar activity, or 23 years. By that time added the corrections due to the influence of the ocean, mountains, deserts, — for each region they own (with regional amendments, for example, in the Azov cycle is 24 years). If during any calendar period temperature variations coincide with changes in pressure, we can assume that the weather will coincide with that seen here exactly 24 years ago.
Getting started meteorologists
Constant weather observations began in Russia under Peter I, although forecasts did not do, and just keep such records are extremely meager. The need to create a network of weather stations also wrote Lomonosov. But this practice has appeared only after a century, and the first in France. During the Crimean War, the allied fleet suffered heavy losses due to the storm, which no one had predicted. And Napoleon III ordered the creation of effective service forecast. Thanks telegraph forecasters different countries exchanged observations, which were then very primitive and described, for example, the looming storm front. The role of atmospheric pressure fluctuations and weather forecasts for realized later.
Today meteorologists process vast amounts of data, including from satellites, as well as weather stations in the Arctic and Antarctic. All neighboring countries exchange them — no one country can not make a weather forecast for their own exclusive territory and resources. For example, to give a forecast for the day ahead of Moscow, it is necessary to know what the parameters are now forecast in Iceland during this time a cyclone of the Atlantic can get to central Russia. A three-day forecast is not credible without the knowledge of the situation in the Northern Hemisphere.
Earth's climate system is very complex and depends on many nuances
Here are just some of the observed trends:
- Since 1980, the average temperature has risen by 0,5 C. Earth continues to heat up for about 0,16 C in 10 years. Warming is expressed more strongly in the northern hemisphere, particularly in the polar latitudes. In the Arctic, the temperature increases to two times faster than the rest of the world.
- Increased evaporation. The atmosphere becomes more humid, more rain falls in the high latitudes, but less — in the tropics and subtropics. Drought alternating with showers — for a day can drop the monthly norm.
- Arctic ice is melting. Over the past 30 years, the thickness decreased by half. By 2070 Earth could completely lose the northern ice cap. Melting permafrost. From this methane, which increases the greenhouse effect.
- Climate becomes more continental. At one particular location in the summer can be much warmer than before, and in the winter — cold.
- Rain increases, delaying penetration of sunlight.
- Slowing the speed of currents in the Atlantic. Gulf Stream may stop, why in the Northern Hemisphere ice age comes.
Alex Karnaukhov, Candidate of Sciences
— Global warming could trigger a sharp cooling in Europe. Melting ice in the Arctic and in the first instance of a giant glacier in Greenland leads to freshening of the Arctic Ocean. Cold Labrador Current, still "dive" under the Gulf Stream will become less salty and therefore less dense. As a result, it can "lock" the Gulf Stream. There is evidence that in the past it stayed warm for just one year.
Andrew Shmakin, head of the laboratory of the Institute of Geography RAS Climatology
— The view that our meteorologists provide forecasts worse than foreign, totally unjustified. As a specialist, I know that according to the Russian Hydrometeorological worth believing, unlike some of the other sources. A lot of them now. It is necessary to understand, where do you get the information! Say, in England there is a commercial service that provides outlook on any date anywhere in the country. Want to know the weather on February 18, 2032 in Leeds? Please pay for — and here's the data. It all up in the air, it is absurd and unscientific, but some services such apparently enjoys. And this does not mean that in England there is no official weather station, giving science-based forecasts. Britain, like Russia, is part of the World Meteorological Organization. The most difficult to make predictions for the polar regions of the Earth. For example, in Iceland the weather changes several times a day. And there are countries that are lucky in this regard. There you can write a forecast for the next 10 years, and it will come true with a probability of 80%. This, for example, Chad, located in the desert hinterland. There are always a few exceptions, the same weather. A similar situation in equatorial countries. Take Ecuador. Its capital — the city of Quito. Now, there is even such a thing — "the climate of Quito." Almost the same all year round weather, the temperatures are repeated every day, with small deviations. In the morning it is clear then there are clouds, then rain. The only question is when it will go — in two hours, or four days. Now almost all the meteorological forecasts are calculated on the computer, there are special programs. Much of this computer's performance. Japan gives good predictions for its territory, including the reason. But for the past five years, and computers are good for us.
- The tsunami in the Indian Ocean (2004). Killed up to 300 thousand people. There was no public address system of the coastal population.
- Hurricane "Katrina" (2005). New Orleans is destroyed, killing 1836 people. Not all were able to evacuate.
- Earthquake in Haiti (2010) and Japan (2011). Died 222.5 thousand and 15.9 thousand. The place and time of the earthquake can not be predicted.
Why element blows Krymsk and New York, not Venice?
How countries prepare for natural disasters?
"The way America is ready for a hurricane," Sandy "- not serious — said" AIF "Constantine Kizhel, assistant to the president of the Russian Union of builders. — They fought the flood of 3-pound bags of sand, of which the constructed elevation meter tall order. But this can not be saved, for example, the underground. Not surprisingly, it has ceased to function. The same applies to electrical cables, which in the U.S., it appears unable to survive the flooding of basements.
For example, in the 90's. in St. Petersburg during the flood water gushing stream at the subway station "area of courage." Once at the station, it could bring down the entire system. However, all of the tunnels were immediately locked because the metro was built with the floods. "
"Venice was built geniuses, — says Sergey Sementsov, Dean of the Faculty of Architecture Civil Engineering. — In the same way as other cities in the swamps — Amsterdam, St. Petersburg. Italians anxiously watching the preservation of Venice. It is believed to restore the old building once in 20-25 years, and they do it religiously, so there you can admire the mansions of XV-XVI centuries. And, for example, in St. Petersburg an array of old buildings not repaired or restored for 100 years! Petersburg, like Venice, built on wooden stilts, which arranged stone and brick foundations. For example, under the St. Isaac's Cathedral is very dense field goals of 25 thousand piles.
They are used for tree species (larch, oak, etc.), which are of direct contact with water become firmer. These piles are 8-16 m long and up to half a meter in diameter. Peter I sent to the Netherlands for students is that they have mastered the art of making foundation piles and other structures that are suitable for building on wetlands. Earlier in Russia, such knowledge was ubiquitous, and today they have only a few. In the same Venice has long forbidden to build new homes. As for electricity in flooded cafe, we have in 1942 at the bottom of Lake Ladoga in besieged Leningrad held cable that supply electricity to the city. "
What about today, in modern conditions have forgotten how to build quality? As demonstrated by the sad experience of the Crimean, after flooding of the building covered by a fungus that can save almost impossible …
Category: Scientists, experts, science