It remains important
Before Vladimir Putin has even more complex problems than the ones that they have already been solved
Russia learned of the existence of Vladimir Putin's 14 years ago, and once as a future president. August 9, 1999, Boris Yeltsin, Putin announced the nomination for prime minister and the support of his candidacy for the presidential election, and the 16th State Duma approved the new head of government. Now there is a whole generation, who do not remember the other head
Prior to August 1999, even not all politically concerned citizens have heard the name of 46-year-old secretary of the Security Council and the Director of the Federal Security Service — the Lubyanka office, he was just a year, he worked in the Security Council less than six months, the TV and the press is not flickering, also occurred in the year default, have replaced three premiere, and in just a few days before the invasion troops Ichkeria and Dagestan.
If someone dared to then assume that this will be the ruler of a nondescript Colonel Russia for the next quarter of a century, it would have raised a laugh. But Putin did it — and now, at the beginning of his third term as president, the liberal opposition scares them children.
Those same kids that grew up in the Putin years. Phony outrage by the fact of the return of Putin to the Kremlin was the occasion for the most powerful attacks on it — under the slogan that everyone is tired of Putin, and that it is impossible to rule for so long. The opinion of the people who voted in last March for a person to pull the country out of crisis of the 90's, is fundamentally broke up with the position of the resource and the media, but a clear minority.
14 years — a lot or a little? And how to evaluate made by Putin at the moment — as something completed (as trying to do many of his opponents), or as a process, the results of which can be understood only in 2024, when his rule? In the history of Russia there were many leaders, about whom we do not understand, if we try to evaluate them, they say, in the course of the play.
Here's Ivan the Terrible — in 1561, after 14 years of rule, has been subdued Kazan, was the Livonian War, there was still cleaning the elite, then received the name oprichniny. Grozny was to reign for another 22 years.
Or Peter the Great — if you count its independent existence with 1689, by 1703, although he managed to change the calendar and trim beards, but all the big military victory and the actual construction of the Northern capital were ahead, as well as 22 years of his reign.
For Catherine the Great in 1776, and was even lighter (just Pugachev rebellion was crushed and won a war with Turkey), but only an intermediate stage — only after 20 years (that could fit several wars and reforms) could sum up her reign.
Nicholas II in 1910 could be substantially relaxed about the fate of the empire — the revolutionary roll forward subsided, and the Stolypin reforms were under way — if not a sense of foreboding war broke out in Europe did in four years. War, during which matured conspiracy against the emperor, called the February Revolution, the ensuing collapse of the army, unrest and civil war.
To Joseph Stalin in 1938 was not only the middle of his 29-year rule, but also one of the most difficult years of his life — a flywheel cleaning apparatus in the hands of the People's Commissar Yezhov, began to work on himself. At the end of the year to put the NKVD, Stalin Beria, who had a massive release from prisons and camps. Approaching war changed both external and internal policies of Stalin — in a hostile environment is the only socialist country left it one of the world's two superpowers.
By 1978, the Soviet Union was at the height of its global power, and Leonid Brezhnev was already experiencing serious health problems and probed with colleagues in the Politburo possibility of his resignation, but the lack of real and strong mate (just in that year died suddenly considered by him as a successor to Secretary CC Fyodor Kulakov, who — that's cruel irony of fate — was replaced in the machine by Mikhail Gorbachev) and the position of the main supporters forced him to stay in power. Until his death, which occurred four years later — but in the years gone in two difficult challenges: Polish and Afghan.
Therefore, evaluating the successes and failures of today Putin, we can not know how to go to the restoration of historical Russia (for the beginning of the Eurasian Union), as the world economy survive the fundamental crisis of rejection of the dollar as the basic unit of account, and certainly even more so how long will not be the war that we can not avoid. But you can try to understand whether there is a reason to talk about some fatigue from Putin — the people or the elite.
"The thesis of the fatigue of Putin's Russia is actively spins our liberal opposition, but by the nature of their relationship to Putin biased because they care about their group interests — said the chief researcher at the Institute for International Economic and Political Studies, political scientist Alexander Tsipko. — They do not associate themselves with the historic, orthodox, provincial Russia, they irritate the patriotism and statehood, multicultural nature of our country, in general, all native Russian traits that remained even after 70 years of communist alteration. And if the power was in their hands, the country would have perished. Now a large part of our liberal intelligentsia for a living, what works in the West, and many yearn for release in the U.S. from Putin, and purely for pragmatic interests. They do not need Russia as a nuclear power, as a sovereign state, as a standalone player. And in this case, our liberals are trying to pass their group interests over national ones. They do not want to develop that Russia, which is, and want to create one that they like: a nuclear-free, decentralized. And that Putin stands in their way. So tired of Putin is at the liberal opposition, but not the working people. "
"Of course, 14 years — this is a great time, and there is some fatigue society, there always is, and it is normal — the member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation, Vice President REU them. Plekhanov Sergei Markov. — There is fatigue, but there are support related to the positive results of his reign. "
The political scientist believes that our society can be divided into four parts — and each of them related to Putin will be different: "First Russia — this is the post-industrial Russia, Russia XXI century, concentrated in the sectors of the economy in the cities. Among her more and we can fix this fatigue associated with the fact that there is high percentage of young people that other rulers and did not see, it does not compare. And those who have seen pre-Putin rulers, Yeltsin and Gorbachev are willing to pray for the fact that he did
not leave. Russia XXI century Putin compares more with Merkel, Obama and Cameron, more precisely, with their idealized images, because they do not have the ability to compare with Gorbachev. For them, the president — a hired manager, and they do not like that Putin not hired. "
The second part of the XX century Russia, Markov calls the Russian industrial mass production, "There is no fatigue from Putin, she loves Putin's attempts reindustrializirovat country. They soon tired of promises — well, how can we say about the re-industrialization, where the rehabilitation and construction of new plants? Why maintained such a high dependence on oil and gas, commercial and financial sectors, which do not produce anything?
Russia Putin personally like this, it was she who came to support him at Poklonnaya Hill — yes, people were brought in buses from the plants, but not by force, and in accordance with their desire. This also includes Russian army and security forces. For Putin, Russia XX century — is the plant manager, the director of "Russian corporations." And they agree with the development plans of the corporation, but do not agree with the pace of implementation and the fact that too much power at the plant have accounting and other support services. "
For the third, the "traditional Russian" Russian XIX century, Putin is not a manager or director, and the king. This is the Russian, who stood in line to the Cathedral of Christ the Savior to bow to the belt of the Virgin, said Sergei Markov.
"It requires that the leader has ceased to be a manager, and became the spiritual leader who builds and represents their value system. For her, Putin — the king. And she carefully scrutinizes it — real or not? When he speaks positively about Russian Orthodoxy and condemns homosexuals, they say, yes, real. When turn on the TV and saw there an unbridled orgy of sleaze, begins to doubt it — maybe not real, just tolerate it? They are not happy in the first place the continuing crisis of the Russian people, its physical extinction and require that Putin stopped him, "- says Markov.
A variety of traditional Russian is largely a fourth, "Russian National" — the people of the national republics. They also advocate for traditional values.
"And just pray for Vladimir Putin for the fact that he stopped the chaos — they understand that if he left, the same Caucasus ablaze. His support in the national republics than in Russian cities. In support of this is, of course, an element of traditionalism, because the head of the Moscow vote for, but even more chaos and fear of Putin's support as a guarantor of stability. "
Naturally, the expectations of these groups are different from Putin. Post-industrial Russia, he promised that the country will Europeanize says Markov, but they believe that it is not fast enough.
"Industrial Russia Putin promised that the plants will be built, and the scientist will live better than a speculator. A traditional Russian — the revival of the Russian people. And discontent turning into fatigue arises rather from the fact that all this is perceived as not fulfilling the promise. " Another problem is the subjective perception — is that bad quickly forgotten.
"A lot of people evaluate their lives and the country is not of the possibilities and of what they want, — says Alexander Tsipko. — Hence the low estimate of the benefits that they had received in recent years. The mechanism of such an underestimation of running, and it is dangerous. But this problem was not created by Putin, and his opponents and predecessors, liberal reformers. After the privatization, we came a monstrous social inequality. While in the early years of Putin's people compared his life to the fact that they had in the 90s, but now the years are gone, people are not noticing how much improved all around for the Putin years, are beginning to compare their own terms with the life of the oligarchs. "
Indeed, expectations of Putin's growing every year — if, in 1999-2000 it was about preserving the integrity of the country, and in the middle of the zero — the return of our full international sovereignty, but now we are talking about the new industrialization. But what caused the slowdown in the very dynamics of power?
"Putin came to power as president, hope, and soon became the President to realize the hopes, — said Sergei Markov. — Another thing is that every year the demand and expectations began to rise, with a decline rate of its actions. This decline was due, first, to institutionalization tandem, making it difficult to work, and secondly, the economic crisis, and thirdly, some resting on their laurels, they say, are on the right course, nothing new to do. And another important reason was the splitting of the social agenda — one required a post-industrial Russia, very different — a traditional, hampering decisive action. "
Now the company is waiting is not a new edition of Putin, and the return of Putin, who has acted vigorously and did not depart until he solved the problem, says Sergei Markov.
"People want Putin to 2.0 over and went back to 3.0 or 1.0. Because Putin 2.0 — is a period of Putin's premiership, a period when the dynamism decreased when fewer changes, it has become less meet people. Last year, he returned to the presidency, but the style of Putin 1.0 had still not recovered, and he lay in the fact that he was in the midst of the people and act on urgent issues. Putin came to the end, until the issue — as Chechnya, the regional barons, TV, the control of oil and gas. He eliminated the offending poverty. Many of the problems, he decided, but behind them are new — and they also need to be addressed. "
The main request today, according to Markov, is that all require action from the authorities, and sometimes anyone.
"Because if the government does not act, or acting aggressively enough, it is no longer seen as the power comes back 90 years. Very often people say, well, let them also do something. If the zero Society has seen a lot of action, but now it is believed that they are not enough. It is for those big issues that are moved into the main agenda. A feeling that go on around them, but for the main issues are not taken "
Now the key question is not what to do, but how to do or not to do, says political scientist: "This applies to all the major problems — of course, they have different ways of solutions, but they have begun to be addressed."
In this case, there are several topics that all groups are the same, says Mark: "For the Russian industrial and post-industrial Russia has several points in common: corruption, workers, and education. And Putin intuitively or consciously moves in these three directions. According to him there are no differences between different groups of society, such as foreign policy or with respect to TV, and then Putin can get their general support. Or, for example, industrialization or struggle with alcoholism and drug addiction contrary to the exchange rate at the Europeanization? So it is quite possible to restore the Putin majority ".
After all, in a society not tir
ed of Putin, and a lack of action from the lack of Putin himself, who pulled the country into a zero, says Mark: "People want to come back as he was."
Now Putin understands that there is a request for action, and that's why he puts pressure on officials, political scientist, but as yet it is not enough pressure.
"Many in the Russian ruling class zazhralis up enormously. Officials need to push, not punishing, and requiring them to action. And in this respect need more certainty — you can not simultaneously take the course of industrialization and to have the Minister of Finance Siluanova. This apparent contradiction. "
"Putin remains the leader of the nation — for that part of the population that wants to strengthen indigenous Russia, — says Alexander Tsipko. — But his attempt, as in the beginning of zero, to unite all groups elite and liberals, and statesmen — and to do so to please them all, now is utopian (even at that time it did not happen). Although for the most part people understand that Putin likes to Russia and devoted to her, but he belongs to the ruling class, and the problem is that more and more people associate his actions with defending the interests of the class. And it's dangerous — all the sins of the elite will try to transfer the person. "
Actually, this shifting of responsibility and practice not only liberals 90s, but today's "stars" Creative opposition grown and nurtured oligarchs — one of their favorite tricks is to portray Putin as a servant of the oligarchs.
"In order to maintain popularity and stability of the country, Putin's policy should be more left — said Tsipko. — He has to devote more time to travel to the backward, poor neighborhoods, talking to ordinary people. "
In part, this going to the people Putin replaces the United People's Front, said Sergei Markov, "ONF — those with whom he likes to consult those who can boldly tell him what they think. We can say that they are the face of the people, their professional and active part. And they represent a much larger proportion of the people, its performance is often in contrast to the media, which to a large extent dominated by the parasitic part of society. "
But such communication still does not eliminate the need for personal empathy in conversation with ordinary people, says Alexander Tsipko: "After all Russian people understand that the miracle did not happen, but he would like to see more of the truth. Unfortunately, it seems to me lately Putin began to do less emphasis on the stories that he has inherited, he has done what he can not do, and what does not work. And this sincerity in talking about the issues and facts of life to him now is very much needed, especially since it is given to him by nature. "
Putin will now proceed to the most important cause of his life — the nationalization and cleaning came to power in 90 years' elite favorites "- indeed, ever sincerely talk about how terrible the resistance with which it was confronted. When is it? When this process is already irreversible — or when he sees that only through direct, through the head of the elite, appeals to the people able to break the resistance of the part that he considers himself above the truth and the law. Those who are in fact tired of Putin, because he could not make it to your servant and the guarantor of the status quo. Those who increasingly feels like their historical time expires and how strongly contributes to this by their actions Putin.
At the same time Putin decides, and second, the most important task of reintegration of the former Soviet Union, and more simply, the restoration of historical Russia. Contrary to the popular belief that all the credit Putin has in the past, its main achievements, something with which he will remain in history still to come.