We are waiting for planetary catastrophe?

Environmentalists Potsdam Institute for climate change have concluded that sea levels will rise by 60 per cent faster than the world scientists predicted earlier. Every year for the last 20 years, sea levels rose by 3.2 millimeters instead of the expected two. Such rapid growth can talk about the imminent planetary catastrophe.

Previous forecast of sea level change was made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the German experts together with their colleagues from France and the U.S. have denied previous IPCC conclusions. Recent findings are based on a comparison of the forecast increase in global temperature and sea level rise, in the reports of the IPCC in the period from 1990 to 2011, with the results of actual measurements taken from space satellites.

German scientists, as reported recently on the website of the newspaper Frankfurter Rundschau, based on the evaluation of short-term fluctuations in temperature, which were due to solar activity and volcanic eruptions, the so-called phenomenon of El Niño (El Nino). In other words, the rate of sea level rise in the last decade was higher than predicted earlier. According to one version, which occurs can not be caused only local climatic events or periodic increase in the volume of fresh water from melting ice cap in Greenland and / or Antarctica.

"For a more accurate preliminary forecast is important to continually check with the actual course of events and to ensure, as far as justified by the estimates, — the author of the study from the Potsdam Institute Professor Stefan Ramshtorf (Stefan Rahmstorf). — In a new study emphasizes that the IPCC has not only not alarm, but, on the contrary, in some cases underestimates the situation from deteriorating climate. "

The annual rise in water level in the oceans threatens planetary catastrophe. According to the IPCC, by 2100, sea levels could rise by one meter from the level of 2000. According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Change, this increase may reach two meters. "The global temperature continues to grow at the rate projected in the last two IPCC reports — says Ramshtorf. — This again proves that the warming is not only slowed down, but not far behind from the previous projection." In short, what the scientists warn, it happens in practice. And this is not a horror story about the end of the world, but a scientific fact.

Compared to 2007, 18 per cent reduction in the number of ice at the North Pole, which is caused by the continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions. Washington Institute in his report noted that in the flood zone can get up to 70 percent of metropolitan areas such as New York, Los Angeles, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, Tokyo, Shanghai, Cairo, Jakarta, Lagos, Bangkok , Karachi, Calcutta and Mumbai. That's not counting the smaller cities and towns.

Throw out the forecasts. Have a look at what happened. Completely went under New Moore Island, located in the Bay of Bengal. In autumn 2010, the Pacific state of Kiribati President Anote Tong (Anote Tong) made an official appeal to fellow citizens of a democratic republic, which did not exclude resettlement due to the fact that the islands are disappearing into the ocean. The calculations confirm the environmental event of the year, when flooding in Venice was not only extremely dangerous, but premature.

However, not all scientists agree with the pessimistic assessment of the situation. According to some experts, the increase in sea level by the year 2100 will not exceed several tens of centimeters. Russian geographer Nikolai Osokin, for example, this account is full of optimism. As they say "Arguments and Facts", he says that the balance of nature will continue. Melting ice while increasing air temperature would inevitably strengthen the evaporation of water from the surface of the oceans, therefore, increase its level will slow down.

Pundits — the spiders in the same bank. Skeptics point to the fact that these German scientists reported at a conference in Doha, where a debate around the future of the Kyoto Protocol, which requires limiting emissions of greenhouse gases. Some experts believes that the expectations in the future impending global catastrophe caused solely by the pressure on his opponents.

Igor Booker

Category: Scientists, experts, science

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