Considering the number of placements forecast the Global Bank, whose main office is in Washington, could be imagined that the professionals who are involved in predicting the configuration of GDP in Russia, reacted to our country out of place in a biased and tried to do everything in order not to see the Russian success. But such a worldview can be easily folded away as obviously imaginary, because the Global Bank published a pretty bad outlook for lower levels of growth, not only in relation to the Russian economy, and with respect to, namely, the American economy and the world at large. It states that any purposeful selective on who to make the necessary registry and who resort to negative in the actions of Jim Yong Qin (President of the World Bank) and its analysts in forecasting was not. And so the forecast can be treated completely seriously.
If you pay attention to the projected growth inhibition of Russian GDP by 0.3% over the year, this visually quite small figure may initially not cause fear, but at least some economic slowdown has its premises, as well as consequences that could occur in the near future.
First, you need to compare the characteristics of Russian GDP growth for 2012 with growth rates over the past few years, and with that of other countries in the world. In the first case, the comparison looks obviously not comforting. The fact that 3.5% growth is the lowest rate of GDP growth in the last six years, the 10-ka, unless, of course, does not consider the default of 1998 and the second peak from the standpoint of the economic crisis of the year 2009. However, if a default and the crisis as if all is clear now that still hinder Russian economy to achieve the planned growth plates? It would seem that the price of oil has long been not fall below the $ 105 bucks. The last months of the cost went for the mark of $ 110 for a barrel of oil. But even this positive oil weird way does not allow Russian economic system to jerk upward, showing severe growth. What could be the reason for such state of affairs?
On a reason in this case can not be read. Specialists Global Bank, as well as a number of Russian economic professionals in virtually one voice call immediately a few prerequisites falling levels of economic growth in Russia.
The premise of the first is related to the fact that our homeland comes more and more into the global economy. Nedavneshnee Russia's entry into the World Trading Company confirms that fact. In such a case, usually they say that we are still strangers to this prazdnichkom life, but only prazdnichka not yet be felt in other streets … The global financial situation is now such that a fairly significant growth shows only those countries whose economies have further to fall just nowhere. In all the countries of the world that have the status of a developed or developing rapidly, the growth rate of the economy this year is slowing down. Even China, which in recent years hit the world of double-digit economic growth, rather suddenly went down in the current year will show, according to the State bureau of Statistics of China, an increase of 7.6%, and according to the Global Bank of less than 7.4% (as you can see, estimates are very close ). If we talk about the other BRICS countries, in India's growth fell to 6.1% year on year, growth in South Africa — will not exceed 3.2%, the Brazilian characteristics — 3.4-3.5% at 7.5 % growth in 2010.
This again says that our homeland is becoming one of those cogs of the global economy, which operates the total cash distributed load of negativity. On one side of our home for a long time waiting for a particular order to become part of the global economy, but now the self-understanding of this most part imposes additional responsibilities and are often forced to take unpopular decisions.
The premise of the second is related specifically to the fact that such solutions in the Russian government is trying to put aside "for later". In other words, everything that can now stimulate economic growth, looks pretty tough against the declared state of social policy. The stimulation of economic growth, of course, may be due to additional investments in the real sector of the economy, but is yet to make such investments full-scale Our homeland can not afford for themselves. The reason for this is the need for cuts in funding municipal programs of public importance, and this reduction may cause grievances and protest cases in the community.
In this regard, superfluous hot heads have already started to do very weird conclusions. They consist in the fact that Tipo "golden age" of Putin when lomilas coffers with petrodollars and thus fills the economy goes. Served with some such idea maloobyasnimym piety. Like, just now, and we'll see how Russia's economy stagnated eat, and the era of Putin put bold cross, because it (the economy) Tipo fully and completely enchanted by trade hydrocarbons …
But with all due respect to those professionals who believe that economy RF will never come out from under the oil and gas dependence, we would like them to make an objection. The fact is that if Russian financial system completely and one hundred percent would rely on the oil and gas sector, the Bank has issued a global not-tion of 3.5% forecast, and would have given all 5% growth, or even more. Painfully for such lifting commodity economy figure of 5% or more at a fairly high price of oil is right. But the decline in GDP growth of the Russian Federation gives food for thought about the fact that over the last couple of years, the percentage impact of the commodity sector to the entire Russian economic model is reduced. No, of course you can not talk about the fact that our homeland, finally, got off and ran across the oil dependence to a diversified economy. Oil and gas revenues as before playing a very important role in the formation of the Russian budget, but falling numbers of growth measured against the high price of oil specifically states that the diversification measures are taken, and not enough that they work. One proof of this is just mind-blowing growth Russian Internet economy. In this regard, Our homeland is one of the leading places in the world. To judge this rather call-digit growth of the Internet economy in the Russian Federation for the first six months of this year: 14.9%. At this rate economists expected annual growth may drop about 30%! Just feel sorry for herself onlineeconomy still makes up only a hundredth part of the total Russian monetary system …
Not enough of words about the end of a "golden age" in general are more like gibberish, because in Russia the vast majority of people can hardly be called life standard of the past 10 years of truly golden. Yes, the
people who had the opportunity to take a hand in oil and gas revenues, of course, can we talk about some "golden age", but most likely, these people and at the moment everything is completely chocolate … At any rise and fall of GDP in all of them chocolate …
If you continue to read about the end of a certain era, the ends do not Putin era, the era of old times and the approaches to the development of the economic system developed by Western professionals for a long time before the rise of the light of Vladimir Putin. Those monetary laws by which the world lives in recent decades, of course, themselves becoming obsolete. And if someone decides to negotiate, then it is quite unclear why the decrease in the level of growth is observed not only in Russia, and throughout the developed and relatively developed world, if everything is so perfectly round and clear.
Certainly, bad configuration in the Russian economy, as part of the global economy, can lead to negative consequences for the country. And so as not to repeat the fate of zakreditovannyh to the ears of the Greeks or podsevshih to your printing machine Yankees need to run across to the use of new instruments to stimulate the economy. One of these arms may be trade integration with its neighbors the coming. Mutually beneficial economic cooperation with Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus fully capable to spur new jobs, which is in itself capable of dragging the Russian economy forward. In addition, the development arm may be the development of the banking and insurance systems in the Russian Federation. Assist increment growth can regional development. Namely, the wealth of the 1st Far East have just such a scale that their rational and timely development will allow to breathe life-giving force in the region's economy is so large and attract huge investments.
But at least some economic arm of the Russian Federation has its own major flaw: it begins to set in motion the capital, it also grows here and bureaucratic corruption rust … And here is the municipal government must show that the full force of this rust-free economy, not to give occasion to declare that the era of their leaves in the past.