Arabian coffee trees, from which the grains are Arabica coffee beans, may disappear from Africa by 2080, said the report of the Royal Botanic Gardens Kew Society (RBGK, UK).
In total there are about 40 species of coffee trees, 19 of which are of commercial value, and the grain of only three species of trees for export. So, arabica coffee beans produced from the Arabian coffee tree, Liberica — Liberian and Robusta — Kanefora coffee tree. While arabica occupies most of the world market of coffee beans. Arabian tree grows in tropical Asia and Africa.
"Arabian coffee trees may disappear from Africa by 2080 due to climate change," — said the head of the department RBGK Justin Mote (Justin Moat), quoted in the report.
The scientists analyzed samples of ancient plants and the coffee beans that are in the herbaria RBGK, as well as data on climate change and created a computer model that describes the state of Arabian coffee trees in Africa until 2080.
According to the study, parts of Africa will lose between 65% and 100% of coffee trees. If we consider the entire distribution area of the Arabian coffee tree in Africa, the number of plants at best be reduced by 38%, and at worst — by 90%.
As they note, when making policy decisions do not have to console ourselves with the best scenario, because the model does not account for cuttings, which are conducted at home Arabica — in highland forests of Ethiopia and southern Sudan. Felling make extensive forests in isolated islands of forest, an ecosystem which is less stable to adverse changes. In addition, the forecast does not include the impact of pests and diseases. Reducing the number of birds in Africa that contribute to plant seeds also have a negative impact on the conservation of coffee trees.
According to scientists, to help preserve one of the most popular in the world of coffee to help the creation of sanctuaries in areas where the coffee plants are grown.