Why Belarusian authorities made more lenient sentences to participants of events on December 19? As the official propaganda could explain such a turn? Means a light sentence for Russian citizens that Lukashenko is now forced to concede the demands of Moscow?
These questions are answered by the head of analytical projects BelaPAN Alexander Klaskouski.
Tsigankov: After the first extremely harsh sentences today, and a citizen of Belarus Dmitry Medvedev and Russian citizens Brevs Gapon and received relatively light sentences. Or say it's about a turn in relation to the authorities to sentences of exhibition space?
Klaskouski: I would not hurry to talk about a turn, but it is obvious that
authorities are forced to soften the brutality of foreign pressure. This is a general international pressure, not only from Russia to its citizens. More lenient sentence were not only Russians Brevs and Gapon, but the Belarusian Bear, because home "chemistry" — a very light sentence against the previous ones, although the evidence was equally shaky.
And the fact that the Russians were punished by fines — clear evidence of a strong political expediency. There is a pragmatic factor, it is called "Putin." The Russian prime minister arrives in Minsk on March 15, and on it depends the solution is very important for the Belarusian government issues.
Tsigankov: How to explain such Belarusian propaganda turns? Another for the same given 4 years, the other — a fine?
Klaskouski: Belarusian propaganda is not the first time to juggle. There are two options — either silence or false arguments about the brotherhood and friendship for the sake of the peoples of the Belarusian Themis showed his mercy.
Tsigankov: Experts said that trial Brevsam Gaponavym and show what policies Alexander Lukashenko will choose in relations with Russia. Do not mean light sentences that Belarus can not now prevent tensions with Russia, and is forced to yield to the pressure of Moscow?
Klaskouski: Of course, Moscow is now pushed to the wall. It Belarusian authorities built a wall on the western direction of its repression and sentences. At a time when foreign exchange reserves to melt the snow, if the IMF recommends a devaluation, the only hope for Russia.
Loans — this one, and the second — it is necessary to sell the property. Therefore, Putin arrives to address issues regarding MAZ, nuclear power plants and so on. But not of such a nature, the Belarusian ruler to meekly give it all. So I think that sooner or later will be more conflict with Moscow.