In recent days in Minsk in exchange offices observed excessive demand for foreign currency. What steps can the authorities do to reduce napruzhvanne the cash market? How long can this hype? How much will the dollar by the end of the year? These questions are answered economist Leonid Zlotnikov.
Tsigankov: Will the authorities to reduce the hype by some statements either have to specifically give banks additional cash currency? How long will this shortfall in the cash currency market?
Zlotnikov: No statements will not help if the money in exchange will not. Objectively, the government can hold this course for two or three months. As long as he kept thanks to spend foreign exchange reserves. If the authorities will start selling industrial sites, where to begin privatization proceeds from new borrowings or (need one billion dollars every month to plug various holes), then the state can hold an existing course.
But as far as I know the situation, wait for regular income monthly money of this size is unlikely.
Tsigankov: Now the authorities are uneasy in front of two options, each of which has a big minuses. Can the authorities to drop the ruble from a political point of view? After all, this is reduced income in dollar terms?
Zlotnikov: As you know, the salaries of the population for the first month of the year, and both fell. In addition, quickly rising prices — 4.2 percent in two months is a lot. Inflation eats up income, and this means that people will not buy up the currency. If money is only to be missed paycheck to paycheck, there will be no such a big demand for the currency. Thus, the currency problem is partially solved in this way. The public will have to tighten their belts.
Tsigankov: Do you dare to forecast what would be the rate of the Belarusian ruble, for example, at the end of the year?
Zlotnikov: If it is established to raise funds from the privatization or new borrowing, then this course can be held. But, because the investment in the Belarusian economy is not very effective, then the problem will still have to decide in a year or two.
If it be not of this inflow of foreign currency, which I mentioned, the rate may reach as early as This year, 4000-4500 rubles per dollar.