Sergei Shakaryants: Updating the Kurdish factor — the death of not only Syria, and Turkey

Sergei Shakaryants: Updating the Kurdish factor - the death of not only Syria, but also TurkeySince June 6, the collision of different development scenarios of strategic programs in a large giperregione in which comes and the Caucasus, entered the latest phase. The founders of "punishment" for Iran's stubbornness and intransigence on the issue of nuclear technology to the last had hoped to avoid the transfer of the site talks in Russia.

Once in Iraq was held for two poluraunda similar negotiations with the parties as to praise each other (in any case, the IAEA has promised Baghdad after rounds of meetings almost early conclusion of agreements with Tehran — of course, in exchange for a gradual lifting of sanctions against Iran ) Powers of the West, it became clear that the course of future negotiations is inevitable without increasing backstage influence and impact of Moscow, an ally who apparently supported and will support China. As it has been proved nedavneshnim summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Beijing.

On the one hand, Russia and China seem to be "holding back" the Iranians, calling for "flexibility" in the negotiations with the "six" on the other — encouraging, suggesting that the removal of even the tiniest, and the weakening of sanctions, Iran is also a full member of the SCO . And this is — at least guarantee that it is unlikely anyone will want to contact the founding fathers of the SCO method of waging war against Iran, even though, of course, the SCO is not a military-political bloc.

Yet another step forward taken by Russia, seemingly towards Iran, and Syria, the West took even more painful. The Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov said on June 6 that the purpose of the latest meeting on Syria "should be to ensure that all external players in the first step without the Syrians agreed to be fair and without double standards make Kofi Annan's plan." "We are not trying to apply to present the matter in such a Makarov as if the resolution is not possible to do, how about this not too long ago said the Syrian Free Army and Syrian State Council, "- said the Russian minister. During the next days of the Kremlin's position was also confirmed by an official dealer of Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich, and Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov.

There was a stalemate — of course, for the West. In the criteria, when the major powers of the West is about to step over the line and cast out themselves, "Kofi Annan's plan" that, in the end, "to fulfill the request" of their own entrenched in Turkey puppets answer RF rejection of the recent conference on Syria — then directly admitted that Syria is not no revolution, it's not the "Arab Spring", and the most realistic training criteria for military intervention of NATO. In other words unfortunate "Libyan scenario", but in the Middle East. "Of course, no one in the West to the public is unwilling to accept. But as Moscow's proposals are ordinary and pragmatic, then reject them outright, despite the fact that even before the Congress and the Senate U.S. leading politicians recognized that our homeland in the issue of Syria less docile than the issue of Iran and its nuclear programs from, for Western powers, too unreal. On the other hand, in the West, including the heads of the intelligence services, it is clear that the Syrian opposition as she was, and has remained fragmented and very heterogeneous and that its finished arrange refined intelligentishka "French Syrian" Burhan Latrine.

Yet, in the proposals of the Kremlin there is a loophole that the West left themselves Russian politics — is the question of Iran's participation in the recent conference or how to construct, the newest of the Contact Group on Syria. And West willing to try to use this loophole. Hence the sharp protests dollars (U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, U.S. ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, the official dealer of the State Department, Victoria Nuland, etc.), France (French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, French Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero), England (Minister of Foreign Affairs, William Hague) and Saudi Arabia (Foreign Minister prince Saud al-Faisal al-Saud) against Tehran's role in a similar event.

But opponents of Iran does not seem to take into account that in support of the role of Iranians in the recent conference on Syria favors and … UN envoy himself and the League of Arab States (LAS), Kofi Annan. After all, at the end of a private meeting, the UN Security Council on June 7, on the situation in Syria, he stressed that "Iran, as the principal country of the region, buried a contribution to the" Syrian difficulties. After that, it became clear that our homeland has not lost in vain, and went to the objections of the West notes uncertainty: West not against the latest conference on Syria, in other words, recognizes the disastrous Istanbul gatherings so called "Friends of Syria". But at the same time, the West does not accept the role in solving the Syrian crisis of Iran. "

At this trap for the West and its satellites (for example, Turkey and Saudi Arabia the same) shut. The weakness of the U.S. position on Syria and NATO rushed to the eye, what did not hesitate to use again our homeland. Sergey Lavrov's statement of 9 June, in which he again stressed that the Russian Federation considers that an international conference on Syria should be representative of all those countries that really have an impact on different sides of the Syrian conflict, and Iran is one of these states, simply stated political destruction of that part of the Syrian opposition, which is in favor of the plans of the West for more than a year and a half trying to achieve NATO's war against their own country, as the format of the "Friends of Syria" in Turkey. In the words of Lavrov, "state that Iran there (at the conference — approx.) Is not the place, since it is already all over the povinet, and it's part prepyadstviya rather than part of the solution, you know, it's very small, such as slightly, from the standpoint of the harsh diplomacy. "

Luck Russian trap the West on Syria was so yavna that "the joy" or on a particular occasion did not hesitate to speak out, while in unison, and two, it would seem, the most implacable opponent of the Middle East — Israel and Iran. On the same day on June 9, Tel Aviv (the mouth of the 1st of the more notable Israeli professionals on the history of modern Syria, the former rector of the Institute of Tel Aviv, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States and the head of the Israeli team of diplomats to indirect peace talks with Syria in 1992 — 1995. Itamar Rabinovich) said that the continuation of the Syrian unrest povinet official Washington and that the United States specifically to blame for the fact that Syria has already slipped into civilian clothes war, in which "the Alawites and Sunnis cut each other." But the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Iran, Brigadier General Seyyed Hossein Firuzabadi been easier — the U.S. and its allies in Syria for the creation of a non-hazardous area for Israel's strategy of producing crops of Wahhabism in the country.

When it became clear that the June 13, Lavrov arrives in Iran to discuss the management of the country's situation in Syria and preparing for a meeting with
the "Six", the West obviously hurried. Russian minister is not in vain drew parallels between the Karabakh settlement and the current crisis in Syria. Speaking at a press briefing on June 9 on the proposal to convene a conference to resolve the situation in Syria, Lavrov said that outside players should not impose any scheme Syrian parties, and make the condition, that they began to negotiate among themselves. "They need to practically force the negotiating table, at first stop armed actions — he said. — Again I repeat — the conference is conceived not in order to predetermine the characteristics of a political settlement, and for the creation of the necessary criteria to the Syrians themselves have begun this work and in order to constantly push them to continue negotiations. So, by the way, happens in the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, in relation to other crisis situations where global society definitely acts adopted on the basis of the principle that the parties themselves must agree. example, the same Karabakh discrepancy. OSCE Minsk Group Co provide the conditions that drive the parties to seek a compromise, but do not impose its decisions. Specifically, and to act in all cases, including the situation in Syria. "

A Western response is inadequate — started the "reset" control the Syrian opposition. It became evident that against Bashar al-Assad, as his time against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, the U.S. decided to throw a fight the problem of Kurdish. Specifically so you can comment on the fact that after the statements Lavrov, Rabinovich and Firuzabadi particularly late in the evening on June 9 in Istanbul confirmed "retirement" Burhan latrine from the post of "favorite Syrian opposition" and sanctioned approval for the role of Kurdish opposition activist Abdel Sid, hitherto relaxed sitting at home in Sweden.

On the same day after he announced that the regime of Bashar al-Assad is Tipo "in distress" and "on its last legs" and has lost control of by some towns of the country. The obvious allusion to "livizatsiyu" Syria — search for "New Benghazi". But at the same time calling on officials of the entourage of President Syria to the side of the insurgents, and practically demanded that "if the Security Council fails to reach agreement, some countries may take action without a UN mandate," in other words touting foreign invaders in the country, a Kurd Sid himself has admitted that he is lying. And also acknowledged the broad military, political and real help from the Wahhabi regime of the Arabian Peninsula.

Throw-in grinder civilian war in Syria Kurdish factor — evidence of the complete defeat of the western sponsors "Libyan scenario" in Damascus. Specially made to reflect the event that coincided evaluation Israel and Iran to find someone to blame in the deepening of the Syrian crisis. Realizing that a sample of the power of overthrowing Assad's Alawite revived factor in the region, vnesiriyskie forces ventured into "irakizatsiyu" Syria, ie scenario in which the driving force behind the veiled disintegration of the country should come forward Kurds.

There is already a huge number of reasons. When the war kurdizatsii Syrian opposition against their own governments precedent of the current situation in Iraq, just adjacent inevitable. After all, at the moment there is a phantasmagoric symbiosis of many reasons this part of the Near East — including historical ones. In the end, the Alawites well remember that after the "surrender" of the Armenian Cilicia and the abandonment of the East (Armenian) Legion without help, then set up a queue and so called Alawite Republic, which massacred by the Turks surrender of Alexandretta and Antioch after May 12, 1939. (According to the agreement signed with the French government, the Armenian Legion (Legion East) had to fight against the Ottoman Empire only in Cilicia, and after the victorious end of the war become the nucleus of a future army of Cilicia of the autonomous republic. Armenian Legion their courageous actions at the Battle of Arara (Ararayskoe fight 1918) decided in favor of the final battle of the French troops. After the defeat of Turkey in World War I and the conclusion of Mudros armistice in 1918, in November and December of the same year Armenian Legion (about 6 thousand soldiers) was deployed by the French in Cilicia, but After a deal with the Turkish foreign players brought in Syria. Soon after they were obliged to flee and survivors of the genocide in 1915-18. all the Armenians of Cilicia. Thus began to form segodnyaschy Armenian community of Syria.)

And if we compare the situation of the period 1914-39 years. with the situation the period 2011-12., the naked eye can see that for the Alawites and Christians of Syria again looming danger of massacres and genocide. This is yet another "role" of France and Turkey, and the attempt Wahabization. But vyshvyrivanie of a deck of cards Kurdish joker — this is an obvious parallel to Baathist Syria part to the fact that there has been a once-and Baathist Iraq. One result: the apparent belief that foreigners were willing to de facto destruction of Syria as independent countries, with the role of favorite Arab civilization. Until next time, the most uncertain and unstable part of the Syrian opposition have been specifically Kurds. At the same time, in the face of a Kurdish immigrant Sid attempted a final rejection of Syria's Kurds of Damascus.

Sponsors realize the process can defeat Syria. After all, in the eyes of the Kurdish community in the region — a nice example of Iraqi Kurdistan. And by the way, the last days are opened on the official consulate in Brussels — the "capital", in fact, both the EU and NATO. What is not independent? And this is exactly what the dream of many Kurds from the beginning of XX century. But in the end it is a question of the revision of borders, of winding up of Iraq as such, and now — and Syria, Symbiotic Project on "livizatsii" and "irakizatsii" of this country. With all this it is clear that once the intra-and extra-regional players seek to avoid "Lebanization" Syria, ie scenario with a weak central government and permanent "frozen" civilian war with strong positions of the armed Shia or their allies in Syria — Alawite.

It may be that the "Kurdish card" in Syria in the first steps of her drawing in reality will trump in the hands of the West. But, surprisingly, in the Kurds — the second part of the trap, the trap prepared for a long period of time to the present catastrophic events in Syria. And this is an option, particularly when the forces are the first to take on the Kurdish factor, are doomed to disappear at some point in this trap. In the end, these camps Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) were not in the former Soviet Union and Iraq, and specifically in Syria and Lebanon plain Beck. This part of the Kurdish insurgency, in contrast to the "talabanistov" and "barzanistov" of Iraq, right know and remember who the main enemy of Kurds. Well, to learn and to heal the wounds went not in Tehran and London. Naturally, it is possible that today's hidden and obvious favorites and PKK fighters in Syria, as Peshmerga "barzanistov" and "talabanistov" in Iraq, also fled the custody and control of the U.S. and Israeli intelligence services, study of "specialty" running trainers from these states. But, nevertheless, it is hard to imagine that the former trustees PKK did not survive any leverage on the former charges.

At this point it becomes clear that the actualization Kurdish factor in relation to Syria once again force the United States to send pulses of Turkey to a more active role in the overthrow of al-Assad. And the statement U.S. Undersecretary of State for European and Eura
sian Affairs Philip Gordon, June 12, on the 31st of the yearly meeting of the American-Turkish Council indicate that the current phase of the Syrian disaster planned by Washington and led by Ankara.

But it is very difficult to understand the euphoria of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which after jumping down from the deck of the American Kurdish joker Abdel Sid with the animation of "prophesied" that al-Assad is "preparing its own end." Turkey should rephrase the statement of its own prime minister. Since for any Capitalize on the Kurdish card in the region other inevitable consequences. So it is necessary to repeat the words of Erdogan, but with reference to Turkey and with the second step of the Kurdish engagement factors: 1) the current time, Turkey for its actions in Syria is preparing its end, and 2) Turkey is not long remain in our region as it is today.

But weakened by Turkey against the de facto destroyed Iraq and Syria almost automatically will mean a real, albeit implicitly, strengthening the position of others — including the Russian Federation and Iran, who will be required to closely unite against a common danger in the region. Plan of the Turkish-Kurdish federal state as a counterweight to the factors of the Russian Federation and Iran are not destiny realized.

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