In addition, he drove a "wedge" between the army and al-Assad — Gates hinted it entirely accurate to future configuration in Syria and offered determine the forthcoming behavior. With all this referred to the correct standard of behavior — the army of Egypt, which has taken a position of neutrality. And gave the example of Libya — the standard of incorrect behavior.
In fact, right from the Gates Minister of Foreign Affairs Avigdor Lieberman said that relations with Syria and Iran, the West should use the same principles and methods as in the case of Libya. Practically this statement Tel Aviv expressed his readiness to support the Western coalition in the event of an impact on Syria.
Chronology of events
— First signs appeared in February, after boarding begin to rally dissatisfied.
— March 15 passed the first large rallies and demonstrations. In various towns of the country's multi-million dollar held by the opposition. Particularly active performances were observed in the southern regions of the country and, specifically, in the town of Daraa. There, they developed into fights with the troops. According to the opposition, only in this town for a number of days of clashes killed more than 100 people. Official Damascus blames the violence escalating opposition, which in fact are Tipo Islamist extremists.
— With 16 waves are on the rise, to bring down the "wave" of the authorities does not leave.
— March 24, authorities made concessions, adviser to President Assad told Busayna Shaabaan of imminent structural reforms.
— March 25 in Syria goes declared opposition "Day of Dignity". They do not hide the fact that they want to spread unrest in the whole area of the country. So matched by an unusual confluence of events with these events Gates's visit to Israel and his resounding statement forced to think about much.
— Intellectuals, the middle class and youth.
— Home are Kurds of Syria, Assad tightens additional forces in the Kurdish areas. The Kurds do not have Syrian citizenship and they are one hundred percent no rights. The total number of Kurdish people in Syria is over 3 million, and the position of others is not much different from the situation of those who do not have citizenship. Kurds account here rovnenky have nothing, no rights, they lack the ability to receive education in their mother tongue, to publish their own newspapers, etc. Because the news of unrest in the towns were met with joy, Kurds dream of autonomy, more constructive part — of a Kurdish state. If we add to this the fact that many Syrian Kurds fought in combat units of the PKK, then they can do for severe prepyadstviya Assad, becoming the core of the armed uprising. In 2003-2004, in Syria there were armed uprisings of the Kurds. And significantly, they passed under the flag of the United States. In addition, the Syrian Kurds will receive assistance from the Kurds of Iraq and Turkey.
— Maybe they will support and Druze, another oppressed minority in Syria. Damascus believes that they are in the middle of their subversive activities of secret services of Israel.
Background: The Druze — Arabic-speaking ethno-confessional group of mixed Arab-Kurdish Aramaic origin, professing his own confession — druzizm. Reside in Lebanon Syria, Jordan and Israel. There are numerous groups of friends in the United States, Canada, France, England, West Africa, the Caribbean and other countries, consisting of the descendants of immigrants.
Druze religion, "druzizm" — originally previously been one of the offshoots of the Shia Ismaili sect, but in the XI century, broke away from her and finished the confessional contacts with the Ismailis in the Middle Ages, having undergone, in the following, significant changes. Druze revolt 1925-1927 the nearly put an end to French colonialism in Syria.
Judging by folding incidents Assad government does not keep, only question is, will leave it as Mubarak, or would resist, as Gaddafi. This will determine the level of gore and the following events. In any case, the "fuel capacity" in the country accumulated a large enough. And the Assad regime, in fact, mene more stable than the Gaddafi regime, it is even without dissent in the Syrian Arabs. And if at this point the Kurds will make friends and unhappy reign Assad Arabs together, plus with the support of the U.S. and Israel, the authorities in Damascus will change.