The Syrian conundrum and the evolution of the global system

The Syrian conundrum and the evolution of the global systemBefore our eyes in real time is becoming polycentric, "post-American" world. This process is not linear in nature, and its line of movement, even as he wrote in the middle of the 1990s. one of the great economists of our time Ch.Kindlberger will inevitably run through the conflicts of varying intensity (1). In the current time of high conflict region was Eastern Mediterranean, where the descent together several points of contradiction, the development of which zopoluchilo keenly dramatic character. And if earlier, these contradictions were "under wraps" authoritarian regimes, that at this point, after the "Arab revolution" in 2011, they began to manifest itself in an open manner. These contradictions and prepyadstviya necessarily require a comprehensive approach and solutions including the preservation of the unity and territorial integrity are located in this region countries. In the unlikely event "Pandora's box", once open, will not close, and the chaos to break out of Syria and the whole region will spread further.

Syrian crisis has reminded some participants of today's catastrophic events, solving their personal tasks (attenuation shall be exalted in the end, "Arab revolution" of Iran, the impact of the spread of "neo-Ottoman" ideology in the adjacent Arab countries, the desire to purchase a "guarantee" their own security by breaking Syria), Overlooked the big picture, and therefore are not ready for probable adverse changes to their environment. And such a configuration pose themselves in considerable danger: for the territorial integrity of Turkey, and for durability of political regimes in the "oil monarchies of the" Persian Gulf from Saudi Arabia. And it is — only the most trivial consequences of today's events in Syria and around it. Hard for me to realize, as you can only count on a suitable course of events, when the final and the consequences of the Syrian conflict to anyone "can not predict" and provided for Syria "Libyan scenario" was obviously inoperative? In contrast to the autocratic regime in Libya, the political institutions in Syria focus on the performance of certain social problems that perfectly clear in the West. Working in the English School of Economics Antonio Guistotstsi writes: "The political strategy, eliminating the risk of excessive interdependence of military and civilian society, the strengthening of the non-military means to support the ruling groups in the process of nurturing social, economic, and religious groups as separate communities by removing the armed forces from the municipal government. This, for example, the model of controlled liberalization made by Hafez al-Assad (father of current President of Syria — AV) after 1970, although this model has earned just as Assad had considerable support in the army itself "(2). I should add that at the moment, Syria, no nominee of the model that made the father of today's President, and the difficulties in using the machine in this country can not be solved, even more so by relying on Islamic radicalism.

U.S. trying to use the Syrian crisis to save their own position in the world system and the weakening of its own main geopolitical rival (and "part-time" brain creditor) — China. Beijing, in turn, is aware that an attack on Damascus means undermining the positions of Tehran's strategic ally of Syria, and threatens to cut off the flow of Iranian oil to the Middle Kingdom, and that — "contain" China in Asia and the Pacific.

America has to act immediately on several fronts. One of them — opposition to attack China in the Asia Pacific region. Far not over 'anti-terror' mission in Afghanistan. United States' role in overthrowing the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, according to the views of some Western analysts, pointing to a new direction in Washington — "Scramble for Africa", presumably all with the same China. Appears so Makar, the situation is the obvious "surge forces" — monetary, economic, well, just the physical. South American experts warn of the current administration: direct U.S. role in the Syrian conflict may prove very unprofitable, because of its likely significant duration. And then imposed comparison. Thus, according to the Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, the military expeditions to Afghanistan and Iraq to increment the U.S. national debt at $ 1.2 trillion. bucks. True, you can refer to the world of noble monetary analyst Anatole Kalecki: municipal debt denominated in national currency (ie in U.S. dollars — AV), does not threaten the economic security of America (3). But the accumulation of United States debt obligations indirectly provokes defensive measures on the part of lenders, including dollarisation of the foreign settlement, in which more and more consciously and intensively involved not only in China, our homeland, Iran, and strategic allies — Japan, South Korea and even Saudi Arabia.

The ongoing Syrian crisis increases the anxious mood in the West. Sometimes they sounded concern over the fate of all the Euro-Atlantic civilization. Part of the South American establishment wonder what the U.S. administration finds "in the distant edge"? what are the likely consequences of these searches for America and its role in the world? Henry Kissinger, for example, offers the newest design a strategy for America in the Arab East instead of frenzied zeal to topple Bashar al-Assad. Maitre American diplomacy turns to his less experienced employees asking them not to forget about the "unfinished mission" in Afghanistan and on the strategic role of the economy in shaping the foreign policy of the United States.

The demilitarization of foreign policy — still a more effective way of transforming the world into a new polycentric system of quality. And here we see the interaction and intertwining of external and internal factors of development. Political revolutions in the Arab world (the "Arab Spring" — journalistic cliche, deliberately misleading the already disoriented "world opinion") have forced disposition, are "running ahead" (as he wrote back in 1970. N.A.Simoniya ) in relation to a slowdown in the ordinary society in these countries. The second step of political revolutions in the Arab world, which now capture "oil monarchies of the" Persian Gulf, is inevitable. This process can slow down, but to warn — is unrealistic. The intervention of the rulers of the Persian Gulf conflict in Syria only brings the denouement — "regime change" in the Gulf countries, the dismantling of other municipalities drawn on maps of U.S. "Big Near East" and care in (political) non-existence of a number of today's leaders …

Not so long ago declared himself to another important factor in the evolution of the Middle East sector of the world system — stop (after the upheavals of 2011-2012.) Isolation of the 1st of the "new regional leaders" — Egypt. Presidential elections in Egypt have shown: country-civilization is once again appeals to an active outdoor policies under the banner of pan-Arabism thoughts. In the new international relations, Arab Republic of Egypt almost agrees with the leading role of neo thoughts and behind them strength to "Greater Middle East."

We are also seeing, as in the Eastern Mediterranean are being tested two approaches to the resolution of conflicts
affecting the modern world-system as a whole. Let us call them — History (Our homeland and China) and Political Science (U.S., UK, France). One can imagine that the "historical" approach that takes into account the most complex ethno-social, cultural, religious, social and political fabric of Syrian (and at least some conventional) of the company, is designed for the gradual transformation of an authoritarian regime in the direction of what Fareed Zakaria calls "illiberal democracy." In contrast, the basis of "political science" approach is imposed from the outside (usually by force, often under the bombs) Re institutions ("regime change"). This "restructuring" is a complete failure in Afghanistan and Iraq, and similarly in Libya, where the destruction of the institutions of state power was due to paralysis of governance — with the future of the dismemberment of the country is already in the coming term. The opposite of these 2-approach — the main cause of pressure the U.S. and its allies (the other NATO states, "oil monarchies" Persian Gulf) to Russia and China in favor of the repetition of the "Libyan scenario."

Uncertainty about the future solutions "Syrian puzzle", as unwitting historical parallels can not influence the behavior of America. At the time, the capture of the Yankees in Tehran and poor attempt at rescuing them worked, among other reasons, in favor of the Republicans in the 1980 election (election of U.S. President Ronald Reagan). There is a natural question: how will now, if the U.S. would intervene directly in the "Syrian crisis "? Although some savvy: sharp, neobmyslennye movement in the West could lead to even greater strengthening of Iran (and coming to life after the revolutionary ferment of Egypt), while not necessarily on the basis of anti-Western. Do not forget, too, that in 2003 the obsessive thoughts destruction of Iraqi "weapons of mass destruction," which, as you know, was not in the nature of, George W. Bush gave Tehran a fabulous gift for solving the problem of Iran's "hateful" of Saddam Hussein. And now there is a new question from the category of "Hamlet": how significant, if applicable for America would be the strengthening of Iran after the impending "regime change" in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf? It is clear that Henry Kissinger and B.Skoukroft ponder such term. Curiously, what to think of it, Barack Obama and M.Romni? Once Dzh.K.Gelbreyt dropped a phrase: "Politics is the art of choosing between the disastrous and sorrow." I think at the moment the West is particularly so in front of goal.

The main problem for the West now — do not change this or other regime in the Middle East or anywhere else, and the resumption of economic growth in the U.S. and Western Europe. The problem is not out of the ordinary. Radiant idea of the "Covenant of Economic Growth" require the concentration of effort; economic growth is caused by the action of a greater degree of internal causes and development of the states of Europe can not focus on, say, "assistance" naikrupneyshey EU economy Germany. Solidarity action for economic recovery in Western Europe would reduce the significance of the Syrian crisis for these countries, and on the contrary, the more fanning the Eastern Mediterranean in order to divert people's attention from the weakness of today's elites European Union in the fight against economic and financial crisis, much less uncompromising will surprise sobering European public.

The last UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan presented the solution, "the Syrian puzzle" to a great extent depends on the political will and courage civilian Putin and Obama. No arguing with that statement, in essence, make one clarification. The decision "Syrian puzzle" implies mandatory compliance by participating in solving 2-preliminary "conceptual" criterion. In 1-x, the recognition by all (no exemptions and exceptions!) The principle of the unity and territorial integrity of Syria. In-2, the termination of the division of states and peoples in the "small" and "large" to "elect" and "rogue states." Only then will develop mechanisms to resolve highly complex regional and local conflicts of our time. Only in this case, the transition to a new world system polycentric state (for "unity in diversity") will give real hope for approval in the life of the planet values of peace and development.

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(1) Kindleberger Ch.P. World Economic Primacy: 1500 — 1990. NY-Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996, p.228.
(2) Giustozzi A. The Art of Coercion. The Primitive Accumulation and Management of Coercive Power. NY: Columbia University Press, 2011, p. 54.
(3) Kaletsky A. Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy. L. — NY: Bloomsbury, 2011.

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