"Expert" magazine recently sausage, a raging pendulum. He yells that we do not produce anything. Then — apparently come to its senses — finally tells the finder of private investment. As in the last issue, which happily reported that "private business in Russia is, he is still here, it is still building new factories, shopping centers, pig farms and greenhouses …"
It appears that:
— in the Kaliningrad region in Gusev already been built or are under construction radio factories, forming a coherent set on top of which — by Russian standards, high-tech production of digital receivers;
— in the Tver region at the Kalinin nuclear power plant has finally launched into operation once the Soviet unfinished — unit number 4 1-GW;
— in the Volga city of Volgograd region built production line of polyester cord fabric for $ 133 million;
— launched in October seasonal Elga coal preparation plants (in Tumanova in Review for October it is mentioned), resulting in the export of a huge Elga will already concentrate;
— near Voronezh for $ 50 million construction of a new engineering plant, which in Russia, "" practically no competition …
Repost of "Expert», № 50, December 17, 2012
Found the missing piece
From August to October 2012 in Russia stated initiated or started 59 private investment of 15.6 billion dollars. Our rapid growth in fixed investment, it seems, is largely associated with the end of a turbulent election period. Especially markedly intensified foreign capital, which in the long run, apparently, and will form the basis of the average production business.
Just over a year ago we started to mark the gradual decline in investment activity of private business in the country (see "Hit the brakes" number 37 in the "Expert" for 2011). Later this fall we associated with the entry of the country into a turbulent election period, during which the businessmen were not willing to invest in new plants and factories, for fear of radical political upheaval. But immediately after the election investaktivnosti growth of private businesses followed. The best time for capital investment, spring and summer, marked by a continuation of the recession (in the spring investobzore we recorded a total of 35 private projects on the 7.15 billion dollars, and in the summer, and even fewer — 31 projects for $ 5.8 billion), although in warm time of the year has always been a growth. At this point, our belief in private capital was shaken for a moment it seemed to us that, figuratively speaking, the state-owned companies, as elephants, trample it and did not even notice. But now we can say that a private business in Russia is, he is still here, it is still building new factories, shopping centers, pig farms and greenhouses (see Figure 1). Only changes the structure of its activity.
Especially noticeable intensification of foreign capital, which last year seemed to lay down on the bottom (see Figure 2). Of the 59 investment projects of private businesses caught in this survey, 28, or almost half, initiated by foreign companies. The claimed amount of investment, these 28 projects give 4.7 out of 15.3 billion dollars (30%). As you can see, they are less capital intensive than other projects, mostly large federal business. The reason is clear: The aliens are in high-tech industries — engineering, pharmaceuticals, etc. They added value is created through the development of products for the market and the organization of its sales, human resources, technology transfer from their other businesses. Foreigners, a magnet for the Russian domestic market. It is huge, comparable in size, for example, the German market (see Figure 3). In this case, we have the final consumption of goods not produced a lot of things, or rather, almost nothing is produced (see "We do not produce» number 47 in the "Expert" for 2012). At the same time, allows the country to export raw materials, in general, live comfortably, consuming a lot of imported goods. Some foreigners us directly say their import volume in Russia grew so much that they had no choice but to organize production here to simplify the logistics and get rid of at least part of the extra costs — for the transportation of products.
For foreign business, especially European and American, Russian, whatever you say, a breath of fresh air. About the huge market we have said — this is the basic premise of their success here. The second key assumption — it remains low production cost. And if the price of gas and electricity we have significantly closer to foreign countries (see Figure 4), the price of labor in the industry is still far behind (see Figure 5). This means that we will soon be close to running out of resources in competitive industries, where the influence of the price of gas, electricity and transport high: metallurgy, fertilizer production, large-capacity chemistry, etc. And this fact, the idea is to encourage business, primarily Private, first to invest in the modernization of industrial assets, heavily dependent on the price of gas, electricity and transportation, and then to invest in the establishment of industries with higher value added, removed from the starting point — raw materials. And for the organization of production of high value added products need to be developed, the technology competence. In our country on a wide range of consumer goods, particularly complex, they simply never happened. Neither the Soviet Union nor in the new Russia. Here, we really need help foreigners with their experience and technologies. Thus, they will thus missing link which closes the circuit. Their place — in the final oriented consumer demand industries, segments and niches. Electronics, home appliances, automobiles, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, new building materials — these are the fields of activity where no foreign capital is unlikely to do. Of course, no cost and without the participation of our national homebrew capital, but he probably will not dominate, and will develop a niche and mostly enthusiasts.
Traditionally, we begin with an overview of the projects in the sectors that attracted the maximum number of investments. But now decided to change this rule. A highly interesting and in some ways a striking investment project, a real diamond, was discovered by us in the most high-tech sphere — the electronics. And it's not even in the amount of investments — about 25 billion rubles, projects of this size, for example, in the energy sector could be safely described as ordinary — but in their essence. We are talking about several unrelated plants built or under construction in the Kaliningrad region in Gusev. These plants form a coherent set, on top of which — by Russian standards, high-tech production of digital receivers. This set-top boxes, digital TV signal receiving, decoding and converting it to a standard analog signal, which is a standard TV tuner and displays on the screen in a movie or TV show. So, the production of these receivers is a Russian corporation General Satellite. In particular, the General Satellite Receivers are used to receive signals Russian satellite TV operator "Tricolor TV" and NTV +. General Satellite Receivers are sold in foreign markets. The planned volume of sales of enterprises General Satellite Corporation in 2012 will be about 20 billion rubles. This means that next year, it may well fall into the list of the largest Russian companies "Expert-400".
In the city of Gusev, Kaliningrad region created a real set of interconnected radio works. This — one
Photo courtesy of General Satellite
Plant for the production of receivers in the so-called Technopolitan Gusev was built first, and he gives the final product. Then the plant was built for the production of antennas and towers for receivers, then center on research and microelectronics. Furthermore, as additional production facilities were built a small house-building and cardboard factory. The total investment in production — about 500 million dollars, of which two-thirds have already been invested. The structure of this technopolis, on the idea of the investor, including not only the production area, but living — a house-building is needed in order to ensure that workers and engineers of their own housing in the form of cottages. Given the housing, the housing business incubator and research center investment in the project in a few years should reach 25 billion rubles. We are always skeptical about the word "innovation" in relation to a major Russian industrial projects, but in this case it seems out of place.
So far, investments have been entirely private. The main beneficiary of the Corporation, St. Petersburg businessman Andrey Tkachenko, since the 1980s, is interested in radio physics and eventually made a hobby out of his present business. But in the General Satellite say that without public money they did not do, they need to build the next plant — for the production of printed circuit boards.
This industry — the leader of our study, accounting for five projects and 11.88 billion dollars. This is 40% of the total volume of investments in projects that fall within our investobzor. Large amounts of mostly appeared due to the state corporation "Rosatom", which is building a highly capital-intensive plant.
So, far from Novovoronezh since 2008 built a new Novovoronezh NPP-2 capacity of 2.4 GW and $ 7 billion. Such a huge amount of capital investment is comparable only to that of pipeline projects, "Gazprom" and "Transneft". Enter the two units is scheduled for 2014 th and 2015, they will have to gradually replace retiring power next Novovoronezh nuclear power plant was commissioned nearly half a century ago.
While the power units of the new nuclear power plant in the Voronezh region still under construction, in the Tver region at the Kalinin nuclear power plant has finally launched into operation once the Soviet unfinished — unit number 4 capacity of 1 GW. He began to build a quarter-century ago, in 1986. True, "Rosenergoatom" (the Russian nuclear power plants, "granddaughter" of the state corporation "Rosatom") claim that at the time of the resumption of construction in the mid-2000s, the station was ready to just 5%. In other words, almost the entire volume of investment has been expended in recent years, rather than the end of the Soviet time, as it may seem at first glance.
Of the non-nuclear projects mention the construction of new large hydroelectric power station in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District — Nyaganskaya a design capacity of 1.25 GW. The project carries a Finnish company Fortum, it will invest 2.14 billion dollars. Finns began to build Nyaganskaya plant in 2008, and the first of three units planned to be operational in January, first in 2012 and then in December of 2012, has a new plan — the first quarter of 2013. Power plant being built in the so-called power supply contracts, the investor generator undertakes to representatives of the market and the regulator to bring to market a certain amount of power in a certain period of time. In the case of tightening the input generator loses not only profits, but also have to pay a substantial fine for the disruption of the schedule. It was in this situation was Fortum. Visited the construction site this fall the Minister of Energy Alexander Novak required to commission the first unit of 418 MW of capacity by the end of 2012. That did not happen, and now faces a fine of Fortum for the failure of the launch date in the amount of up to 5 billion rubles, or about 25% of the value of the block. Nyaganskaya power plant construction planned in the Soviet era, but in fact it only started in 2008, in fact, "in the open field." This, the construction of the station from scratch and explains the increase in the period of construction and installation works — after twenty years of major new thermal power plants in Russia did not build and seems to have forgotten how to do it. Despite the existence of mitigating circumstances, the Finns a large fine, it seems, still discharged. That is to say, to teach it to others.
Chemical industry and oil refining
Here, we recorded 12 projects totaling $ 7.4 billion (25% of total investments). Two of them — very large.
The first, which is realized — a deep modernization of the running in the days of the Second World War, the Komsomolsk refinery in Khabarovsk Krai $ 3.6 billion. It holds "Rosneft". The modernization includes the construction of new hydrocracking unit, reformer and coker, as well as many other facilities. As a result, will increase the depth of processing and the quality of motor fuels by 2016 will reach the level of class "Euro-5".
Another major project is implemented Taif — on the basis of "Nizhnekamskneftekhim" the company is building an ethylene complex and processing facilities on the basis of its $ 3 billion. Apparently, the project will soon enter an active phase of implementation (see "For myself, do not mind" in "Expert» № 45 for the year).
Large projects, of course, attracted the attention of the scale and impact on the course of the industrial development of the country. But smaller projects are also very interesting.
Here, for example, the company "Gazprom khimvolokno" at its plant in the Volga city of Volgograd region has built a production line for polyester tire cord fabric for $ 133 million. Its current name company "Gazprom khimvolokno" received a year ago when it became the controlling shareholder of one of the subsidiaries of "Gazprom", before it was part of the holding company "Sibur" called "Sibur-Volga", and before the company called Volga chemical plant fiber. Now this plant — one of the largest in the country for the production of tire cord fabrics used in the manufacture of tires. The new production will help the company to gain a foothold as a supplier of foreign tire companies. They are actively building new plants in Russia: Finnish Nokian Tyres raises new plant in the Leningrad region, the German Continental — in Kaluga, and the Japanese Yokohama — in the Lipetsk region. So far, almost 100% polyester cord in Russia comes from abroad.
Just two of the plant for the production of paints and varnishes under construction in St. Petersburg and the surrounding area. Both projects are implemented Scandinavian investors to whom to these places, as they say, on the doorstep. We are talking about the Norwegian Jotun Group (project at $ 57 million) and the Finnish Teknos Group (27 million dollars). Both companies have long been present in Russia, the Finns have been here for a small production. Companies anticipate increased demand for their products and therefore have decided to expand. Claes Jansson Hakon, General Director of "Jotun Paints' (a subsidiary of Jotun Group), told the" expert ", why decided to build its own plant," In Russia, we have already reached the amount of such sales when the construction of the plant is nec
essary to meet the demand (revenue "Jotun Paints" in 2011 was 1.13 billion rubles. — "Expert"). Most of the products we import from England, of course, it requires financial and time costs. By building a plant in Russia, we can greatly reduce the cost of transportation and storage of goods, and to provide more timely delivery. With the release of the plant at full capacity in 2014, we are planning to occupy about 10 percent of the Russian market of industrial paints. " In general, it is quite logical: to carry a liquid base paint from England to Russia is like to carry water in large quantities it is wasteful.
The mining industry
Mining is represented by only two projects, totaling nearly $ 3.5 billion. Both projects — coal, implemented by companies, "Mechel" and "Strojservis."
A special case is the project of "Mechel", which is developing the giant Elga coal deposit in the south-eastern Yakutia. Coal mining started here a year ago, but only in August this year was launched coal preparation plants, what can be considered an intermediate finish the project. Now coal is mined in open pits will doobogaschatsya and in the form of a concentrate to be exported.
Nerungri, Russia — October 1, 2012 — JSC "Mechel-Mining", a leading Russian mining company, announces the launch of Technology seasonal processing plant and receipt of the first concentrate from the Elga coal
To Elga seasonal processing plant, the launch of the full production cycle, in which the enrichment produced the first batch of coking coal from step uglepriema and ending with production of the first finished product. Top enrichment Elga coal at the mine preceded the hard work that required complex design solutions, logistics, construction and industrial applications. Factory built in full compliance with modern international requirements — the production process is fully automated and operated from a central control, which in real time the status of all technological systems. The production capacity of the factory? up to 3 million tons per year. The estimated project cost is about 2 billion rubles. (About $ 64.7 million).
"The launch of the seasonal processing plant was another milestone in the realization of the unique importance of the project in its Elga coal deposit, which is one of the world's largest deposits of coking coal. After finishing the construction of the railway connecting the mine with the Baikal-Amur railway line, the launch of new enrichment facilities will in a short time to bring the mining and processing of coal at the Elga section on the industrial level and start to benefit from large-scale investment in the project, "- said the Chairman of the Board of Directors JSC "Mechel" Zyuzin.
Elga deposit would develop in the USSR, but not in time. The field is huge, until recently it was considered one of the largest contoured and set the balance, but not to develop coal deposits in the world, by the standards of JORC reserves of 2.2 billion tons, of which the main part — scarce coking coal. The key problem Elga — remoteness from centers of any life and so thinly populated Far East. The field is located 415 km east of Neryungri, others more or less significant in terms of population settlements around Elga not. Moreover, the development of the field was impossible until "Mechel" has not brought to him from the railway station Ulak Baikal-Amur Mainline. Railway length of 320 km with pritrassovyh highway cost of approximately $ 1.25 billion. In addition to this it was necessary to spend more on accommodation camp for construction workers and miners. As a result, the entire project will cost the company 2.86 billion dollars. Largely because of him, "Mechel" has amassed an exorbitant net debt — $ 9 billion, of which expects to be covered by the sale of assets (for details, see "Drop tail to survive", in "Expert» № 39 of 2012). In particular, we plan to sell a 25% stake in the company "Mechel Mining", through which "Mechel" has Elga.
Projects of the agro-industrial complex, because of its low specific capital intensity is always dominated numerically, in the current review of 18 pieces (out of 70). Total investment — $ 2.2 billion.
Fashion last year in agriculture — the construction of greenhouses. We have already alert to this trend (see "" Tomatof "from Volgograd", at number 42 for the year). In our selection of four of these were once the project in Krasnodar, Volgograd and Rostov regions, as well as in Bashkortostan. Investments in greenhouses go from strength only a year or two, and so far do not say that in our cities now entirely Russian vegetables and herbs. But the fact of the start of construction here and there is quite a large complexes shows that in a few years we can expect tangible import substitution in this area.
Should also be said about the expansion of the food industry in Russia Ukrainian confectioners. Among Roshen (brand name "Mad Bee Frutti" and others) want to close to its Lipetsk plant to build a major production and logistics facility for 400 million dollars. For the confectionery industry is a very large amount. The new factory is planned to start in 2014, its capacity is 250 thousand tons of candy. In comparison, the company now produces its six factories located in Ukraine, Russia and Lithuania, 410 thousand tons of sweets. Thus, Roshen in its business entirely explicitly relies on the most interesting and a major market for itself — a Russian. And this company is not alone. Its competitor from Ukraine group "Conti" (brands Bonjour, Amuor and others) have long made a bet on our market. Not so long ago, "Conti" launched at its factory in Kursk, a major distribution center, its current investment of 25 million dollars go to building on its territory a new pastry shop.
Deepening the localization of foreign assembly plants in the automotive industry — an obvious and clear trend of Russian engineering. For example, among the top ten investment to $ 1 billion, included in this review, on any account for four with an investment of 600 million dollars. All of them are carried out by foreigners.
German Volkswagen plans to build a new engine plant in the Kaluga region of 333 million dollars. The company will be located next to the car assembly capacity. The engines will be installed on cars of Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod assembly where the facilities of GAZ Group vehicles produced since the end of 2011. Construction of the plant for the production of internal combustion engines will allow Volkswagen to fulfill the terms of the May 2011 supplementary agreement on industrial assembly. By its terms, in 2016 30% of produced on the territory of Russian cars must be equipped with Russian engines.
The Germans are concerned about engines, but the US-Russian JV «GM-AvtoVAZ" plans to start the project of creating bodywork and forging industries in Tolyatti worth 207 million dollars. In such volu
mes not venture capital invested in fixed assets since its formation in 2001.
A few examples. Austria Magna increases its production capacity for automotive components in Nizhny Novgorod. The company will produce the dashboard, bumpers, seats are not only gas, but also for other automakers. There, in the Nizhny Novgorod region, Dzerzhinsk, a German Boryszew Kunststofftechnik Deutschland GmbH organizes the production of plastic parts for interior and exterior Volkswagen for 20 million dollars.
Of the non-automotive projects, we note a U.S. company Emerson, which plans in 2013 to begin construction of office and manufacturing facility in Chelyabinsk for $ 40 million. Putting into operation is scheduled for 2015, and it will produce sensors for pressure, temperature, level and flow for nuclear and other industries.
While the aliens are trying to build in Russia a more or less high-tech factories, our entrepreneurs are searching for the internal market gaps and fill them. Here's another example: "Voronezhselmash." This small regional company built a new machine-building plant in the Voronezh for $ 50 million. This plant — a response to an investment boom in agriculture, it will be made elevator equipment, without elevators do not keep the grain harvest. Yields have already reached a very decent size, so it is not surprising that the demand for elevator equipment is growing rapidly. Commented Gregory Chujko, principal owner and chairman of the board of directors' Voronezhselmash ":
— We have always specialized in the production of grain cleaning equipment, but a few years ago realized that the market is small. So we decided to go a different direction in the construction elevator complexes and production of color sorter. For this purpose, in fact, built a new factory. In Russia, we have practically no competition. Domestic agricultural producers have to buy elevator equipment abroad — in Canada and in China. At the same time, the capacity of the elevator equipment market is growing. While there is no exact data, but it is significantly more than the capacity of the market grain cleaning equipment — about 10-15 billion rubles per year.
In trade, we note only one project — the German company Selgros Cash &Carry. This company is at in Germany and in Europe — the second number of stores after his eternal rival Metro Cash &Carry. It's nice that this competition has finally reached Russia.