Three scenarios for Libya

Former British Ambassador Richard Doltan in an interview with Radio Liberty, said there are three possible scenarios in Libya.

Richard Doltan: "The purpose of UN Security Council Resolution provides for the protection of the civilian population to achieve a truce. First scenario, that after Truce talks begin, and an agreement is reached on the establishment of a national government without Colonel Gaddafi. In the second scenario, will not be able to reach agreements and Libya will be divided into Western and Eastern parts: the first will manage Gaddafi, the other — the opposition. There will be a very unstable situation, with the potential of civil war, which could give rise to another intervention of international forces. Another one is the best for Libya and more likely to I think, scenario is that the opposition is supported by the international coalition to make a successful kontranastup in a westerly direction, which will be followed by uprisings in several cities in western Libya. This can significantly weaken the support of Gaddafi. And although there is no assurance that the events will develop thus, success in this direction is more likely than a defeat. "

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