About neopoznannnyh flying objects

The editors of the "Technical Review" invited me to comment on not too young — because after all, she thirty — UFO enigma. So regardless of what constitutes "unidentified flying objects", in my opinion, to deal with them is not necessary.

In favor of my uniquely negative point of view say four groups of arguments. The first two relate to our earth science as an institution of human cognition, called to investigate any, including the objects of observation. The next two deal already. UFO claims themselves ["The science of UFOs" — the English acronym UFO (unidentified flying objects — UFOs). ] And studied the phenomena. Getting down to business, I want to note that my conclusions will be of sketchy character.

Outside institutional or, if you like, orthodox science of our time extends the area of so-called parascience devoted to events that do not have a place in the first. There are several sections parascience, as an example to mention only two of them: ufology and parapsychology, (known, however, in different ways) is engaged in extrasensory phenomena, perception and action. Parascience adherents insisted that by ignoring the puzzle type UFO or clairvoyance, science thereby changes its basic principles and neglect their primary responsibility. According to diagnosis parascience, orthodox science is now dogmatically defended stubbornly and erroneous propositions, being deaf and blind to the reality of such irrefutable evidence of puzzles.

However, all of these accusations, ding from year to year — continuous lie. If we restrict our chosen theme, which is "unidentified flying objects", then I will list the research programs, research centers made the U.S. Air Force after 1947 (which is the year of the first UFO sightings), to recognize the nature of these phenomena. First study of UFOs was undertaken in the framework of the so-called program "Mark" ("Project Sign") in 1948 and, therefore, can not be said that the specialists too long pulled from baseline. Then, in 1949, the study was carried out in the framework of "ill-will" ("Grudge"), and the next research program — the "Blue Book" ("Project Blue Book"), is carried out with a considerable expenditure of energy and resources, was completed only in 1969 year.

For all three programs characterized by the following: the more professional and capabilities designed to investigate the phenomena, the existence of an UFO (atmospheric events, places, "landing", etc.), the less remains "doubtful" or "unexplained" cases and the more cases recognized pointless (when the alleged UFO turned out to be something long known, for example, weather balloons, stars, planets, in which observers saw something else, a consequence of collective illusions or fraud, etc.). There were many UFO researchers (for example, the notorious Donald Kehoe), which simply blamed the U.S. Air Force in the falsification and concealment of evidence for the reality of this phenomenon. These charges were possible as long as under the Ministry of Defense Air Force research centers publish at all documentation research, and only their generalized negative. At present, however, all of the documents listed above is published, and of these, it is clear that the U.S. Air Force has been known for as long as reported in previous publications, which means that no one tried to conceal from the world public opinion of any "secret UFO" .

Of course, this huge documentation can be countered by the assertion is as insistent, however unfounded, though the USAF still silent on some secrets still hide them (or that the studies were not sufficiently effective or not accurate). However, in my opinion, continue to defend the former opinion — so from an objective point of view, go to the point of fanaticism bordering on paranoia. Paranoid because, as you know, any facts, even completely innocent and outsiders, says secretly against him. And if I as a party concerned has to decide who is more credible, the participants of all the above research programs of the U.S. Air Force or the self-appointed representatives of the UFO, then I speak in favor of the former — the confidence that there is other evidence of their innocence.

In addition to the U.S. Air Force UFO problem involved the so-called SETI — a voluntary organization of scientists, mostly Soviet and American, whose purpose is to search for extraterrestrial intelligence (Communicatin with Extraterrestial Intelligence). Scientists, united in SETI — is, of course, first-class minds worldwide, personality much larger than the U.S. Air Force Research personnel. Nevertheless, among the research groups involved in ufology, I call SETI in the second place, as it did not have even a fraction of the forces and means by which, for obvious reasons, have the air forces of the United States. And what happened? Conclusions of the scientists involved in this issue as part of SETI, exactly match the results of the U.S. Air Force UFO program: no UFO there.

UFO program under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Defense, rather than pursuing their own scientific purposes as protecting the interests of the U.S. government (primarily the question was, do not represent a UFO threat to the United States). The more important conclusion SETI scientists — they more than anyone else, are interested in finding even the slightest traces of extraterrestrial life. The fact that some UFOs could be more or less likely to be the tip of extraterrestrial origin, or at least part of the probe itself, much less interested in the Air Force than SETI. Yet SETI scientists could not find the materials UFO evidence, albeit indirect, in favor of the hypothesis of the presence of aliens in the vicinity of the Earth. You can, of course, be challenged and this produced by an independent conclusion, but in this case, how great is to be bad faith or ignorance SETI scientists to deny the nature of the mysterious events, the correct assessment of which depends the future of their own organization! How could the specialists, united just to find traces of extraterrestrial intelligence, categorically refuse to study traces of the mind, which themselves go into their hands? If you can suggest any extraneous motives research groups the U.S. Air Force, then what is the SETI scientists, independent of the U.S. Air Force and any government deny any evidence of the real value of a UFO? For me the answer to this question is quite clear: in such a monstrous conspiracy in such a monstrous unfairness of so many independent from each other research groups, I believe not.

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The second group of arguments against the thesis parascience ufology for the differences between the followers of a UFO and institutional methods of science.

Anyone who regularly met with at least a particle of world scientific literature, imagine the number of unorthodox, daring, strange to the fantastic work that from year to year are published in scientific journals. After all, there are printed and a work based on the data, which later prove to be wrong, and the works that contain improper generalizations, erroneous extrapolation, wrong guesses and so on. But the world science as a whole acts like a sieve, separating the wheat from the chaff: it sees the truth, but not soon to say. Judgments of individual scientists, even Nobel Prize winners, even if Einstein, by themselves do not have probative value in science. They get it (that is, can not get it) only after repeated and thorough inspections.

And it is a collective, non-personal nature of science, that its feature that the procedures of knowledge, down the centuries, are above any individual opinions, even the most highly visible, are a guarantee of the reality of objective knowledge, and reliability of the guarantee can be nothing. This does not mean the absolute infallibility of science, but it means something much more important: the science is wrong, but in his subsequent motion cancels own erroneous assertions. Put another way, science as a whole is a system with a strong tendency to samokorrektirovke. And blame science in dull, malicious, demagogic or dictated by any other extraneous considerations to deny the facts, which are its blood and the air — is to misunderstand its fundamental functional principles.

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The following two groups of my "antiufologicheskih 'arguments concerning themselves have evidence of the existence of UFOs, referenced parascience ufology. The first of these refers to the peculiarity of "internal history" ufology, I will call the rapid multiplication of hypotheses based on all of the same evidence. UFO researchers for thirty years, and as expected, they dedicated literature grew at a rate snezhnogokoma. Hypotheses about the nature of the UFO was much larger, and they themselves have become much more sophisticated, complex and detailed than in the early years. Situation is completely different when it comes to the summary tables of cases of UFO sightings, which are recognized to the extent of actual UFO critical (that is, not the ones that are taking at face value the message of George Adamski, not once, not twice visited on board the Flying Saucer and was explained by English from their extraterrestrial crews). You can not see any change, no progress, no phenomena, which would not be a repetition or modification of already known, and a new stage, a new link in the chain of evidence the reality of UFOs.

Their behavior has not changed since 1947: the sudden appearance, unusual evolution in the air, sometimes landing on a short time, but never left material traces, the analysis of which would indicate their extraterrestrial origin. Supporters of UFOs based on reports UFO press claim that the UFO landing sites were thoroughly survey comes as naive, however lightly. After careful examination suggests, in particular, chemical and chromatographic analysis, thanks to which scorched grass stems can detect atoms of isotopes of chemical elements in the fractions that are not found on Earth either in nature or in the products of human activity. Restrict the assertion that somewhere soil was parched, hot, charred, science can be a hundred years ago, but certainly not today. And if someone was to claim that the isotopic composition and radiological activity tin dripping from the "damaged UFO" is exactly the same as ours, the world's tin, as de "crews Aliens", wanting to hide from us its extraterrestrial origin, use Earth-substance — that conclusion I have no hesitation ranked among the tales. If you really want to disguise the aliens, when their technological superiority they could do for us completely invisible.

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Finally, the fourth category of arguments against the reality of UFOs as extraterrestrial objects (and therefore space, because there is no alternative) should include the number of postulated in UFO literature "unidentified flying objects". Suppose that in our galaxy there are a million technical civilizations. Suppose further. that only one-tenth of all the stars in the Galaxy with zasluzhivast heat of these civilizations, the study by spacecraft. With this assumption, each of the millions of civilizations must annually send 10 000 aircraft to at least one of them has reached the Earth. If civilizations in the galaxy is less or if not all of them are sent each year to 10,000 such vehicles in the world is one spacecraft will arrive not annually, but much less frequently. If we take the estimates of the density of cosmic civilizations, which are considered the most optimistic SETI, the Earth could be counted on to visit "Alien Probe" once in 10,000 years.

If (in order to avoid absurd conclusions) suggest that objects similar to our Earth, the galaxy is not typical and rare, that is, that civilization in the galaxy are isolated phenomena (which, in fact, would make likely more frequent visits by "probe" aliens), by the same token, whether we like it or not, we acknowledge that aliens who could send us anyhow, not a million, but much smaller. And if so, if, for example, only 10 000, each civilization Milky Way annually to send one million vehicles, that one of them hit the Earth.

Meanwhile, according to the UFO, "UFOs" observed in the world each year by the hundreds. That's the number of observations is, unless, as do the more cautious supporters of ufology, reliable enough to drop the cases, because the total number of reports of UFO sightings in the thousands per year. Yet hundreds of UFOs in Earth's sky suggest the galaxy, literally teeming with civilizations, that is, one which is in complete contradiction with the data of astrophysics, from which comes SETI, which means that it is pure fantasy.

By the end of his notes I have saved the news, unusually, I think, favorable to supporters of the UFO. Recently, the American magazine "National Inquirer" raised the award for providing evidence of extraterrestrial UFOs from 100,000 to a million dollars. Nice addition of the stated sum will be another, more modest, "UFO skeptic" Philip class willing to pay a premium of 10 000 dollars out of pocket. Proof of the reality of UFOs can he be sent to the popular American magazine "Evieyshn Week and Space Technology." As for the million promised by the magazine "National Inquirer", then the address can be dealt with Ikna Ridpata of the English weekly "New Scientist" (London, SEJ 9LS, Stamford Street). Dare to recommend this address to all UFO enthusiasts who are not convinced by my notes.

Stanislaw Lem

Category: UFOs and aliens

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