Society These questions are answered one of the defendants in the case, an activist of the "Tell the Truth" Andrey Dmitriev and political scientist Yuri Chausov.
Tsigankov: With what reasons the authorities have for reducing charges for some participants events of December 19? We can say that there have affected the U.S. sanctions and the European Union? Should I expect that the scenario of sentences involved in the case on December 19 changing?
Dmitriev: It may be noted that the position of the United States and the European Union — an important factor in the actions of the authorities. But there is also an internal reaction in a country which is important for the authorities. You can also note the deterioration of the economic situation in the country, and that the decreased emotional background — not the emotions that prevailed a month ago. I believe that some of the developed scenarios in power there, and there are steps that are made from one or another of today's circumstances.
Chausov: I agree with the fact that the main thing they are afraid of — is foreign economic pressure. And when there was a threat that the European Union is allegedly ready to apply strict economic sanctions against the Belarusian regime, the authorities went on mitigation. The value here is not the fact of change in the charges, and that the authorities are willing to bargain. And they are already saying that bargaining has begun — "we have already softened, let's bargain." But it seems that the EU does not want to engage in this process of trading political prisoners.
I also agree that the original did not have a specific scenario. But now the internal factor that affects the deployment of this case — is a departmental interest in intelligence: the KGB, the Interior Ministry and others. Playing around this criminal case — this is a game of special services.
Tsigankov: Let me remind you that the new, more lenient charge was brought against Vladimir Neklyaev, Alexander Feduta, Sergei Wozniak, Andrey Dmitriev, Vital Rymasheuski and Anastasia Palazhanka. But why are these lists of names NO Andrei Sannikov, Paul Sevyarinets, Statkevich and missiles? Wants to share this power of the accused to different categories, split the opposition?
Dmitriev: First of all, I hope that this list may expand.
I think there are several reasons. First — this is a personal negative attitude towards someone. Negative, which has the power to Sannikov and Statkevich, is in such decisions. Secondly, yes, there is an attempt to split the opposition between them. But I hope that does not happen. Here, only the charge reduction, but even for a new article is available for three years.
This mitigation may be the cause of the revision of the positions of a democratic society, because it is only an imitation.
Chausov: Investigating authorities will be more tough to treat Statkevich and Sannikov, who made his campaign on criticism of the person of the dictator. Of them will draw the main enemies, the main culprits.
On the other hand, the desire to split the opposition is certainly visible. That someone will be happy with the softening, and someone will say that they are not real opposition — this, perhaps, is betting authorities. But I am convinced that this calculation in vain. In Belarus, the opposition is now united as never before the threat of reprisals.
Tsigankov: The European Union, the United States and the Belarusian opposition to stand firm on the requirement that all participants in the events on December 19 should be released. Can we now predict the acquittals participants events of December 19?
Dmitriev: I do not think that before this can be reached. After all, the authorities need to show that there are some steps that will always be punished. And no matter who protects — the European Union, the United States or Russia. I think it will be decided case by case, based on the situation.
While the judge of people whose names are unknown wide circles of society. But soon begin trials of presidential candidates, and there are going to be very hard to pretend that they were some kind of criminals. I think the authorities will seek to manipulate these potential dates.
Chausov: Again, I see this move as an offer from the EU authorities to enter into bargaining. Power shows that there may be even suspended sentences or sentences of "chemistry" or fines, as we have seen with the Russian citizens.
As to whether these will be the point of universal criminal cases the public eye, I have a big doubt. Experience in the trial of a presidential candidate Alexander Kozulin has shown that it is not stirred up the whole of society.
But now the situation has changed in the direction of greater Russian influence in Belarus. Therefore, the authorities adjust their strategies in an attempt to use the defendants in negotiations with the West, because — you can not fly on one wing. There is a real threat to the sovereignty of Belarus — vulnerability to Russian influence. Hence, the regime will seek at least some way to return the possibility of negotiations with the West.