Society members: expert Belarusian Economic Research and Education Center Dmitry Kruk and journalist "Belgazeta" Sergei Zhbanov.
How adequate are the actions of the National Bank?
Valery Karbalevich"Business entities, investors, and just ordinary people trying to understand what is happening in the foreign exchange market, and what are its prospects. How adequate are in this situation, the behavior of the National Bank? How can you comment on the statement of the National Bank of 31 March? "
Dmitry Kruk"Statement by the National Bank on March 31 legalized the situation on the currency market, the prevailing now. Exit the bank sees in obtaining loan from Russia.
If you interpret the position of the National Bank of deeper, to get rid of negative balance, we need not only the devaluation and the change of fiscal, monetary policy, reducing the funding of government programs. National Bank does not want to take responsibility for the devaluation on themselves. If there is no political will to reform, then hold a devaluation is meaningless. "
Karbalevich"And the fact that the National Bank is authorized to deviate off-exchange rate of the ruble by 10% — is not that a de facto devaluation?"
Crook"No.. If the National Bank lowered the official trading course, then it was a de facto devaluation. What you say — it is a de facto consolidation of multiple exchange rates.
Until now, banks sold the currency on higher rate, masking it with some commissions and other payments. Now my decision is made semi-legal position of the National Bank. "
Sergei Zhbanov"If monetary resources are limited, there are two ways to respond. Or it is necessary to remove all the restrictions and give everything to the will of the free market. But such a policy is not supported by the President.
Or to impose restrictions. But this does not solve the problem of providing economic currency. As in 1999-2001, it is necessary to take out loans (in Russia or the IMF) and the release rate. We need to show the market that whatever the demand, the National Bank with its interventions will provide it and keep the exchange rate at the effective level. Without such resources can only share a currency ration. "
The disagreements between the government and the National Bank
Karbalevich"From the statement of Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Rumas can understand that the government's position does not coincide with the position of the National Bank. Is this true? What are the differences? "
Crook"Yes, after the statement of disagreement, the Rumas became apparent. Because at the National Bank and the Government of different functions. The government tasked to ensure the growth of the gross domestic product. And under the current foreign exchange restrictions and the multiplicity of courses to solve this difficult problem. Therefore, the government and criticized the National Bank. That is, the government and the National Bank are trying to transfer the responsibility to each other. "
Zhbanov"Indeed, each department its own interests and functions. The deficit of foreign exchange reserves, restricting the growth rate decreases. And the government is displeased, he pushes the National Bank for more than the market rate.
Conversely, the National Bank is not responsible for inflation. But Roumas says that inflation is the forecast level. And it is for less than three months is 5.4%. This is more than half of the forecast for the year. "
The prospects of recovery
Karbalevich"What are the effects of currency crisis for the economy? Here is an international credit rating lowered Belarus, rising prices, paralizuyutstsa some areas of economic life. For example, it was reported that dealers until stopped the import of new cars. "
Crook"The most likely scenario is this. If not intervene a political factor, within 2-3 weeks of Belarus will receive Russian loan and credit of the EurAsEC. This is for a fixed period (6-12 months) stabilizes the situation. There will be restrictions on imports, especially consumer. Decline in real income due to higher prices also reduce imports.
But this way is not possible to solve the problem of the Belarusian economy conceptually. And a year later we can go back to the current situation. That is putting off the problem. This is a dangerous scenario, since a year the situation will be harder.
The current situation is reminiscent of the situation in 2008. But then dominated by external factors, and now came to the fore internal factors.
In order to fundamentally solve the problem, you need a change of economic policy. It is necessary to cut funding for state programs. The Ministry of Finance said on this, but there are doubts that it will happen. Then you need to reduce the structural deficit in the economy, which is created by the intermediate goods. But this scenario, which would be positive for the economy, is less likely. "
Karbalevich"If Belarus will receive Russian loan, it will continue to mnozhnasts courses?"
Course"If it's only the Russian loan of 1 billion dollars, that is questions. And if Belarus will receive another loan from the Eurasian Economic Community, and — $ 2 billion, the multiple exchange rate will be. At a certain time. "
Zhbanov"Will there be enough of these loans to restore the situation in the foreign exchange market? And for how long? A mnozhnasts courses can be eliminated, and now, to establish a uniform rate. The question is whether such a course on the currency market, exchange offices? Now it will not be there. "