Relatively soon humanity will not be able to go into space on our planet, and it's not because of a world government, or a UFO with aliens. It's simple: We have managed to dirty garbage even our orbit. The event, which took place in 2009, when the first artificial satellite collided with a piece of iron outside the ground will be repeated more often if we do not take drastic measures.
Although, maybe it to someone and it is beneficial: do not let us out of the world? ..
Earth's orbit about 20,000 objects larger ball, of which only 5% — space satellites and other operating facilities. Another 19 000 — space debris.
A long time ago it was predicted that after reaching a certain amount, the subsequent replenishment of space debris — the growth of its population and the probability of hitting a functioning space objects — will be self-sufficient, even if the further generation of garbage people will stop. This scenario is known as the Kessler Syndrome, is possible due to collisions like what happened in 2009, when the debris brought down first operational satellite "after giving birth to" a plurality of secondary fragments (just over 2000 such that we can detect the radar).
But the question is: when will trigger a domino effect? When it was flying in low earth orbits will resemble the streets of besieged Leningrad marked "This side is dangerous in the attack?"
Undertaken at the request of the NASA study, conducted by a team of industry experts led by Darren McKnight of Integrity Applications, found that there are two options: either to withdraw massively defective satellites in lower orbits closer to the atmosphere in which they should be burned, or improve collision warning system to out modern management flights.
Unfortunately, both options have yet technological support. Simply put, here and now nothing can be done: you need to develop the appropriate technology. The first way also requires a minimum of hundreds of billions of dollars of costs only in this century, but who will give that kind of money? NASA (by American standards), impoverished, Roscosmos … no, this ridiculous version and will not comment. "Unification of mankind" can not even agree on how to bomb him to Syria / Iran, or wait a little bit, to say nothing about as far away from the political issues of the mind, as debris …
Yet experts radiate optimism. The most powerful promoter of cleaning orbit may be purely financial interest of space agencies, to be exact — the greed of their insurers. Now the insurance object in orbit is 1.5% of its value in a year. Only a small part of that percentage refers to the risk of collision with space debris: crash for spacecraft until much worse. However, according to calculations, now in low Earth orbit, there are areas where the probability of death from the wreckage of the spacecraft just above 1.5% per year. So sooner or later, the rising cost of insurance would be so high as to avoid activities that will not be able to clean up.
Unfortunately, as the authors of the study, whichever is the later, the cost of such work would be enormous, which will cause irreparable damage to space flight industry as a whole.