Exclusive Interview with President AZE.az GNFE, chairman of the International Committee on Global Change subsurface Professor Elchin Khalilov.
Courage, fortitude, humility and generosity, which met the Japanese greatest catastrophe of our time — cause great respect and great compassion of people around the world. Qualities inherent in this historically hardworking and dedicated people, once again helped him to unite in a single monolithic force together to survive and withstand the elements. But will this highly civilized, industrialized and economically developed country to cope with the cataclysm, the consequences of which have stirred the entire planet?
The catastrophic earthquake in Japan, with a magnitude of 9 and the resulting tsunami on March 11, 2011 — this is one of the most terrible warning about the nature of the early days of natural disasters, as the international community informed the International Committee GEOCHANGE from the end of 2009. To date, our committee has about 350 prominent scientists from 88 countries.
In late 2010, the UN, the basic structures of the European Union, the Organization of the Islamic Conference and the heads of more than 140 countries have received international communiqué and the special report of the Committee on GEOCHANGE early sharp rise in seismic and volcanic activity and tsunami in 2011. In early 2011, the communiqué and report MK GEOCHANGE were also sent to the parliaments of 120 countries in the world.
Now we can say that "nature including timers." The disaster in Japan is much worse and widespread consequences for all mankind, than is now many experts. The number of casualties and missing persons as a result of the catastrophic March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan is close to 30 thousand people. Japanese police confirmed the deaths of 10 000 901 people. Many experts believe this figure is greatly undervalued, says about 18,000 dead.
Preliminary assessment of the Government of Japan direct economic damage caused to a natural disaster the economy is about $ 300 billion.
Often, the accident at the nuclear power plant Fukushima-1 compared with the accident at the Chernobyl NPP, in this case, state that the current disaster in Japan has smaller effects of radioactive contamination than Chernobyl. While it is not clear whether the so think those who commented on the situation in Japan, or is it just an awkward attempt to hide the truth and to prevent panic among the population. In any case — it is wrong.
After the Japanese disaster should be stated that our planet and civilization will never be the same, in the environment and human psychology have been significant changes that will impact on human development. This has already affected many countries who have officially declared their intention to revise its energy plans following the events in Japan — the German Government, Venezuela, Thailand, Israel, Peru, Switzerland, charted a course on alternative energy. Other countries also began discussions on the issue. Hence, such energy, such as oil and gas again occupy a strong position in the coming years, said Professor Elchin Khalilov in an interview AZE.az.
— Elchin Nusratovich, did it really that bad? Please explain what is dictated by your pessimism.
— Very simple chain of reasoning. While I will only talk about the developments related to the ongoing contamination of the environment. According to experts on March 28, within a 30-kilometer zone around the plant emergency people per day can get the annual rate of radiation exposure. Increased radioactivity recorded in water that collects in the ditches on the outer side of the wall unit. The radiation level exceeds 1,000 millisieverts per hour. This emission corresponds to four annual limits for nuclear workers.
If the Chernobyl radioactive contamination, mainly surrounding the station has undergone earth's surface, and the radiation released into the atmosphere by the explosion of a nuclear reactor was carried by atmospheric currents on a large area of Europe, in Japan, in addition to these two factors in the spread of infection area, there is another enormous factor — the Pacific Ocean with its streams, flora and fauna. To the spread of radioactive contamination on the globe now there are no barriers. Imagine that plankton, fish, birds and marine life near the station received a large dose of radioactive contamination and they will communicate over long distances by currents and the whole route will be consumed as food by fish and other inhabitants of the ocean and the birds. Now there is no guarantee that caught anywhere in the world ocean fish and seafood will not be contaminated by radioactive emissions from the Fukushima plant — 1. The same applies to birds. Animals on land eating infected birds themselves will be contaminated by radiation.
— What do the people in this situation?
— If we talk about the population of the different countries, I think everyone already knew the situation and refused to supply and consumption of any products from Japan and the surrounding region. As for the actions of governments, and in this regard in many countries have taken steps — significantly tightened control on the radioactivity of food offered for sale. However, this control is primarily concerned with the cities. In rural areas, there is little hope for a serious radiological monitoring of food. This problem is also not likely to be solved, in the poor and developing countries, particularly densely populated.
In the burden falling on the island states and countries with greater extension ocean coast near Japan. The diet of coastal populations of these countries a lot of seafood. Most of the people living there are very poor and the ocean — the only source for them of food and income. Talk about radiological monitoring for these people is meaningless, because their life depends entirely on the daily catch and sale of fish caught and other seafood.
If the situation is stabilized, with time, the concentration of radioactive elements will be scattered in the ocean. It will take many years. Meanwhile, the area near Japan will still be unsuitable and dangerous for human life and living organisms.
— Showed that the disaster in Japan?
-First of all, it showed that no country in the world, can not themselves manage large-scale natural disaster. As for the impact of these developments on the global economy, it is necessary to consider the fact that Japan's economy is export-oriented products to a large number of states. The fear of many people around the world, sometimes justified, seems to lead to a sharp drop in exports of products made in Japan to other countries, which can greatly undermine the economy of the country in the coming years. At the same time, Japan will have to import from other countries, additional amounts of energy and food. Insurance companies expect growth in the value of reinsurance in Japan by 20%, but analysts believe a sharp jump — at least 50%, as losses from the earthquake and tsunami on March 11 would undermine the financial condition of insurance companies.
This is only a small fraction of experts discussed the economic impact on Japan.
Now nature is increasingly reminds people of the impending danger, trying to wake up their vigilance and to redirect their thoughts and actions in a different direction. But it seems that neither the people nor governments are not yet prepared to accept the reality of these ominous warnings.
Human psychology has not changed for thousands of years of its existence. People do not want to believe in the approaching danger until they see it for themselves. Unfortunately, then it is too late. I understand the common people, who were annoyed about the possible disasters and it is easy to explain — each absorbed in his immediate problems that any family are most important. Weekdays absorb most of human energy and information that is independent of the people, just scared and annoyed. But there is a category of people who were instructed to think about the protection of the population, reduce losses during natural disasters, infrastructure and training of the population in case of natural disaster. We are talking about scientists, specialists, leaders of states, heads of major international organizations such as the UN, the European Union and others.
— Dear Elchin Nusratovich, you talk about the need for some action to reduce the negative effects of natural disasters. What can international organizations and governments, if such a technologically advanced country like Japan, was completely surprised by the major earthquake and tsunami, despite the constant preparation for such disasters?
— You are quite right in saying that Japan was caught off guard. And you know why? First of all, because of the lack of a common foreign policy in preparing for such a large-scale disasters. Disasters of similar size have been repeatedly in the history of human civilization and their consequences go far beyond a single country. Natural disasters have no borders. Here's a look at Japan nuclear accident occurred at the AU and all countries have to worry about their own speakers, their population began to demand the shutdown of nuclear power plants and conservation. But is this the way it should be? An international integration and coordination in this matter and it is not just nice words, but they have a deeper meaning, which I'll try to decipher.
The fact that on this planet, something changed, it is obvious to many. International Committee GEOCHANGE already completed the second report, which will be given even more compelling evidence of steady growth in the number and energy of natural disasters and global changes of geological and geophysical parameters on the planet in the solar system. But let's face it. The saying "self comes first" acts not only on a personal level, but also at the level of society. Each country is thinking about protecting their communities from natural disasters autonomously and after their occurrence continues to struggle with them, virtually alone. Some countries are "lucky" and help them significantly more.
Another is "lucky" less and help them little or no help. Show me the international mechanisms and laws to coordinate humanitarian assistance and direction of a country. Each country decides to help a country in distress or not, and to what extent. Only some of the humanitarian structures, such as the red cross and red crescent, assist systematically, but it is minuscule in comparison to what you should do.
For example, after the monstrous floods in Pakistan in the spring and summer of 2010, there has suffered from 15 to 20 million people who have lost their homes and livelihoods. What is the amount of humanitarian aid was sent to the country, remaining silent with his grief in private.
So in the case of Japan, everyone was calm, that the level of technological development of the country's rule of the accident. But it turned out that nuclear power plants in this country even less resistant to earthquakes and tsunamis, and a bit less advanced than in many other countries. Full case evaluation to give just yet. Meanwhile, the general confusion and surprise the world unprepared for such a disaster in Japan, it is quite reasonable.
Why during the rescue and repair work on the damaged reactor nuclear power plant Fukushima-1 is used massively special robots — rescuers, remotely controlled technology, precision-guided autonomous manipulators, widely advertised in many international exhibitions and in the media? In the infected zone are sent to people! Their heroism is admirable, and perpetuates them in the history of mankind. But is that enough to win the development and effects of the disaster?
If it does, living in the vast contaminated area is not possible, what would happen to the millions of people — IDPs. Where and how they will be placed and whether the State to deal with this problem? And if it does not is economically and technologically powerful as Japan, with a population that will be in this case? Is modern society can not look "beyond his nose?" How many more victims need to get going?
International Committee GEOCHANGE with several reputable international and national organizations invite scientists, experts, representatives of the governments and parliaments of different countries to come together at the World Forum to discuss pressing issues relating to the rise in natural disasters. World Forum — International Congress on "Natural cataclysms and global problems of modern civilization» — GEOCATACLYSM-2011 is scheduled for 19-21 September 2011 in Istanbul (Turkey).
International Congress will gather representatives of all interested countries and organizations together to discuss the most pressing issues to reduce casualties and damage during natural disasters. The ultimate goal of the Congress is to discuss and approve a joint effort of international organizations and experts, "the international emergency program to reduce risks and negative consequences of natural disasters. Will be attended by representatives of the UN, the European Union, the Organization of the Islamic Conference and other reputable organizations.
The main section of the Congress:
1. Earth Science 2. Economics and Finance, 3. Vehicles 4. Health; 5.Upravlenie emergencies; 6.Stroitelstvo; 7.Ekologiya and environment 8. Communication Systems and Information Technology, 9. International and national law.
The congress is scheduled over 1000 scientists, experts, politicians and public figures, members of governments, parliaments and other legislative bodies of various countries, representatives of the major stakeholders of companies and financial institutions in more than 100 countries worldwide.
Official Site of the International Congress: www.2011.geocataclysm.org
International Committee GEOCHANGE prepared a second appeal to the UN Secretary General, the governing bodies of the EU heads of state and parliament. The appeal, in particular, to:
OFFERS INTERNATIONAL COMMITTEE GEOCHANGE:
1. Urgently convene the UN General Assembly on the issue of integration and coordination of efforts of all countries to resist natural disasters.
2. The adoption of the UN Framework Convention and the establishment of the UN Commission on Global Change and the Geological Environment.
3. Creation of the UN, the International Centre for monitoring and forecasting of natural disasters.
4. Adoption of international standards for the operation of national governments in the case of various disasters.
5. The adoption of international laws for the coordination of international assistance to victims of disasters countries.
6. Need to start building settlements "cities of salvation" with the appropriate infrastructure for an extended stay of a large number of refugees and displaced persons from areas of natural disasters. "Cities of salvation" to be placed in the safest place, in terms of natural disasters on our planet.
7. Need urgent creation of national and international reserves and identify sources of funding to large-scale humanitarian assistance to countries affected by natural disasters.