President of the Academy of Geopolitical problems, Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov gave assessment of the prospects and the likely consequences of Ukraine’s accession to NATO
Kiev began legal training to Ukraine’s integration into NATO. The Verkhovna Rada of Crimea decided to reunite with Russia and joining it as a subject of the Federation.
While the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry held talks on stabilizing the situation in Ukraine and around her own group increased NATO Air Force in the area adjacent to the Ukraine and around the border with Russia. March 6 airfields Baltic team arrived U.S. fighter. Earlier in February, increasing grouping ODBC NATO in Germany. By March 1, the number of warships from the U.S. 6th Fleet in the Black Sea reached the 6 units, including ship and 6th Fleet, established to manage naval forces — namely, carrier aviation activities in the course of its role in the air offensive . By the time the true clear at least about 2-aircraft carriers — «George Bush» and «Dwight Eisenhower» who arrived in the eastern Mediterranean with escort ships (their total number may reach 22-28 units). Fully maybe a potential conflict area move 2-3 American aircraft carrier from the U.S. Atlantic Fleet. According to some reports, «George Bush» has shifted to the area of the Sea of Marmara, approaching the Ukrainian and Russian shores.
U.S. attempt to establish control over Ukraine with reliance on «soft power» in this step were defeated. But turn away from such «prize» they can not — very high cost. Ukraine — the key to the Russian Federation and the military-strategic and socio-economic perspectives. Fight for it has not ended. Just the United States and NATO as a whole need time to prepare for a new, more effective and decisive coming. Now mask frustrated and purpose of coming openly declared. So one of the leading American analysts Richard Haass (Richard N. Haass) in his article on the future of Ukraine openly says the imminent entry of Ukraine into NATO at least some acceptable form with the following accommodation over parts of its territory U.S. missile defense system, the Air Force groups, and NE Navy at Sevastopol of mandatory expulsion from the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Quite evident that «soft power» is not limited. Perhaps in Ukraine will attempt to repeat or even Syrian Libyan scenario.
Given the time required for the creation of groupings NATO sufficient to invade Ukraine and deterrence from retaliatory military actions of, the beginning of the second operation against Ukraine with NATO can be expected after the elections on May 25, when they formed the mandatory authorities owning at least imitation legitimacy. During this time, you can take control of «armed freemen» of the «right sector» (part of the bribe funds or post other isolate or kill), also form any permanent security forces controlled by the Kiev authorities and capable of solving even the most limited range of tasks.
Next these formations on the orders of the newly elected authorities in Kiev will begin operation «restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the fight against the separatists.» After the first failure (very possible) Kiev government request to NATO for help to be provided in the form of large-scale entry of NATO troops in Ukraine, accompanied by massive air-missile attacks on «rebellious separatists.» Combat strength of the group would be so huge invasion that Russian advance not have a desire to prevent this from their Armed Forces. Then Ukraine to Russia will be lost forever. And for our elite, this will mean that it has entered on the «path of Yanukovych.»
Our homeland is not the possibility of using the unexpected entry of their own troops on the entire area south-east of Ukraine during the first 2-day, while Western elites were in a state of shock right now can not perform a similar action. Especially since it will not be able to do more later, if the situation does not change constructively.
Now the Russian Federation is the only way out. Continuing to increase the range of diplomatic, political, economic and informational measures to protect their own interests and friendly population in Ukraine, focusing on the development of forces capable of defending the independence of the pro-Russian regions of the south-east of Ukraine. First — the Crimea. And in the case of the NATO invasion — to delay the invading group of forces, creating conditions for proactive kontrvvoda Russian troops with the aim of covering the southeastern Ukraine from its occupation by NATO troops.
You can do this by facilitating the development of highly armed self-defense forces totaling more than 100 thousand people. To do this purposefully promote or, at least, not hinder the movement of volunteers from Russia to Ukraine. With all of this funds and commercial organizations providing them real help, purposefully encouraged by the country. In particular, those who contribute more prepared volunteers from among former members of the security services, special forces officers, Interior Ministry, the FSB and the Armed Forces. 2-3 thousand volunteers similar completely fail together with the staff of the number of officers Ukrainian supplies and frame form a rather short time frame is very capable forces required number of self-defense.
In the case of samples of Kiev to establish control over these regions, defense forces will be able to defend their independence. And if it starts to NATO intervention, then these forces can hold ground forces aggressor 2-3 days. This will be quite enough for the timely introduction of troops Russia and cover all or part of the south-east of Ukraine. On a direct military confrontation with Russia, NATO could not dare. The contact-line Russian and NATO troops will be the boundary separating two new Ukrainian country.
But new action associated with the attempt of Ukraine’s integration into NATO and the decision on the reunification of the Crimea with Russia constructively aggravating the situation in Ukraine. Because military scenario can begin much earlier.