The results of the policy dialogue with the official Minsk, due to the events of 19 December 2010 in Minsk, the differences and similarities of Lukashenko and V.Yaruzelskaga — all this, our correspondent Yuri Drakakhrust spoke during the Wroclaw Global Forum with former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski.
Drakakhrust: Mr. President, you have a certain relation to the policies conducted in Europe on Belarus in 2008-2010. You led the council of prominent politicians from different countries ("council of wise men"), which developed the framework of this policy.
KwasniewskiYes, we have a dialogue, for what not to isolate Belarus. We have already said that we have to work with the community, with community organizations. I believe that this policy should continue, despite all the difficulties, despite Lukashenko. Lukashenko's regime is approaching its end. And you need to work with the community.
Drakakhrust: But the need for dialogue with society in general it is not disputed. Your innovation was an offer to talk with Lukashenko.
KwasniewskiYes, talk to the authorities. I am convinced that the policy of isolation is ineffective, it does not work. I understand that after what happened after the election, the political approach should be more severe. But dialogue is needed.
Drakakhrust: Why after the election happened what happened? Your offers of dialogue open to the possibility of Lukashenko, strengthened his power in the short and medium term, perhaps even, for what you criticized your criticism. Why he abandoned these opportunities?
Kwasniewski: I can only speculate. Soul chapter is that none of us are aware that it is happening. I think he made a big mistake, all he did after the election was wrong. Why did he say that? I think it's because the election results were far worse than he thought. I mean real, and not the official results. He realized that his position is not as strong as it was before. And he had a strong psychological frustration.
But by and large I do not understand why he did so. He lost the ability to speak with the world, with partners. And he did it would be costly. Now the economic situation in Belarus is very poor. And it will be more difficult to talk about the support of the Belarusian economy with the IMF, the EU and Russia. After all, he did so in order to complicate the tasks themselves.
DrakakhrustPolish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, together with German counterpart Guido Westerwelle during the election campaign, Lukashenko visited for less fair elections he promised financial assistance. However, Europe, including Poland, supported by the opposition, Lukashenko rivals in the election campaign. Or he did not consider this duplicity is not considered that in fact the West wants to overthrow him? Well, given this "sincere" response.
Kwasniewski: But there was no mystery. It was clear that democratic Europe supports democracy. This means that we are talking to the opposition, NGO support and various forms of civil society. Lukashenko could not help but realize that with the fact that Sikorski and Westerwelle talking to him, does not mean that Europe will not support political opposition. Such an arrangement has never been and never could be. After all, Sikorsky, and Vestrervele — is democratic politicians of the democratic countries, they could not return from Minsk and say that we have agreed with Lukashenka, we will support it and will not support the opposition.
It was impossible from the start, and therefore it can not be the cause of the behavior of Lukashenko.
I still think that the reason — these are the results of the elections. Perhaps it is more than 50%, but much less than what he had expected and hoped for. He realized that people are tired of this regime, from himself, that the opposition is still weak and dezintegravanaya, but it will play a role in the future.
Drakakhrust: Now, many believe that the West, Europe should maintain a strict policy of Belarus, including the introduction of economic sanctions. And what is your thought on this?
KwasniewskiI am with this idea does not agree. This is very bad for people. They need to live, they need decent living conditions. If the regime is isolated, he says that for many years Cuba says — we wanted to do for the people a better life, but can not because of the sanctions. For many it is a convincing explanation.
I'm a man of dialogue, I think that even with dictators dialogue can provide more benefit than sanctions. But it is my position.
I think that is very interesting and difficult time. The economic situation in Belarus is very weak. Lukashenko will need external support. And now we can negotiate with Lukashenko, first, to no one of the most influential politicians in jail, and second, that it gave an opportunity to act civil society.
It seems to me that the end of the regime approaching, the process went. I do not know, is aware of this Lukashenko, but witnessed similar processes in the world, it is already clear. The question is, what will be the pace of the process.
Lukashenko advantage for many years was that he did not give democracy, but given the social minimum, a sense of social security. Now it's over. Without this mode can not be contained.
Demonstration of the drivers on the streets of Minsk — is the most dangerous, it is much more dangerous than many of the activities of the opposition.
Drakakhrust: And by the way, as the "Solidarity" refers to the sanctions that the U.S. imposed after the announcement in Poland in 1981, martial law? Or she asked about these sanctions, or supported them when they were introduced?
Kwasniewski: It was a difficult question for the "Solidarity". Political sanctions against Jaruzelski was supported unequivocally. But the sanctions, which do not allow people to live and work — it's bad. Many people have asked — why America is fighting with us, not with Jaruzelski, not with the regime?
Politics — it's a combination of carrots and sticks. But I personally know well Jaruzelski and tell you that it can not be compared with Lukashenko. Jaruzelski from the first day of martial law knew what to look for opportunities to terminate it, look for the opportunity to negotiate with the opposition. This process has been slow, we have agreed with the opposition in 8 years after the introduction of martial law. Lukashenko has been in power for twice as long.
In my opinion needs to be combined policy — support the people, support for community organizations and serious dialogue with Lukashenka.
Drakakhrust: In your opinion can Europe move away from that less stringent policy, which it holds after December 19? For example, the Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski deeply engaged by this new policy in the EU. At the same time, Russia uses its monopoly position of partner of Belarus. Is it not a consequence of the new EU policy?
KwasniewskiThis is important and it is necessary for him. Because if as a result of the sanctions in Europe and the U.S., we do not preserve the independence of Belarus, there is a question as to who was right and who did a great historical mistake. I believe that Sikorski understands this very well.
Requests which Lukashenko sends to the IMF — a reason to start a hard conversation with him about how to change this. Lukashenko will be difficult to agree to this, but this is the moment that you want to use.