Contrary to rumors of a possible collapse of the Belarusian ruble, April 1 commercial and state banks maintained constant exchange rates. However, to buy the currency is still almost impossible, and when it is available in sufficient quantities — no one knows.
Not being able to invest rubles into dollars and euros, people have started to buy gold bullion and silver coins. Meanwhile, the leadership of the National Bank of virtually eliminated from the processes in the currency market — as stated, until receipt of the promised Russia a loan of $ 1 billion.
Dissatisfaction with the management policy of the central bank expressed even members of the government. Thus, the deputy prime minister Sergei Rumas said that the government is concerned about the situation in which businesses and citizens can not function normally and sell currency.
According to him, the actual return to the multiplicity of exchange rates does not solve the problem, because even allowed a 10 percent corridor in the currency exchange market is not sufficient to normalize the situation. Besides, is not conducive to stability and the rate of inflation, which for January and February was 4.2% — the forecast for the full year 2011 of 7.5%:
"In general, predict inflation today is difficult, because everything will depend on the foreign exchange market restrictions. Today, none of the experts can not say how it will affect the real economy. 'Expectations are now very large, and we see that many manufacturers are clearly lay an overvalued exchange rate of Belarusian ruble in the price of goods, which is probably why the government will have to do some additional steps. But we still believe that the reasons for the revision of the forecast for annual inflation is not, and the government will do everything possible in order to fit into the approved Options. "
In the words of a representative of the Association of Belarusian banks Felix Cherniavskyi, now the main hope of the Belarusian authorities to impose a joint loan from Russia and CIS countries for a total of $ 3 billion. The first tranche of $ 1 billion is expected in a month. However, we must not forget that, in addition to supporting the Belarusian ruble to float, there are other financial obligations. For example, a foreign national debt of Belarus on March 1 exceeded $ 10.5 billion, and only on the service This year, need to find about $ 900 million. The aggregate external debt of about $ 30 billion:
"As soon solved the problem of raising funds Russian — in the amount of $ 1 billion, as well as a stabilization fund of the Eurasian Economic Community — $ 2 billion. If the funds were received, of course, the situation quickly stabilized. On the other hand, this measure is also has a limited time frame, and in this sense is necessary to make certain steps in the development of production, export promotion, etc. First of all, for the first time to reduce the deficit of the current account deficit to overcome in the future that's a negative trend ".
Meanwhile, in January-February, the negative balance of foreign trade approached $ 2 billion, which does not give reason to hope for replenishment from the outside. By the way, for the same period last year the figure was four times less — about half a billion dollars. But the National Bank did not inform the public about the measures being taken to improve the situation. Financial Analyst Ekaterina Smirnova says that this silence creates only new panic attacks:
"As far as I understand, the National Bank in this situation decided to nowhere at all does not interfere. On the one hand, he does not comment on actions of commercial banks. On the other hand, commercial banks also do not explain anything and pretend that they actually like nothing happens. least those comments that come to look very careful. Given that the situation is uncertain, people also see the opposite. And it turns out that the situation turns for the worse. "
At the same time, the economist Pavel Daneyko believes that the National Bank to push any active action is not:
"You know, we have many people predicted the collapse of the Belarusian economy, every year, talk about the offensive of the apocalypse. And then if something happens to be the same crisis, begin to proclaim, like this, and I have 15 years ago warned about it. I'm also not a fortune teller to predict something accurately, but it is clear that the National Bank we have a very skilled and professional. I think one of the most the best in the post-Soviet space. So, too, all the people there understand and try to find a solution within the constraints that have ".
Meanwhile, people in despair he began to attack the National Bank. Its regional offices are not willing to give advice to somehow convert Belarusian rubles. In the absence of currency being bought up large quantities of gold bullion and silver coins. The bank staff told that even dismantle pound "bricks", which cost more than 50 thousand dollars.