The Belarusian authorities have decided not to intervene in a crisis situation on the currency market and wait for the rescue of the Russian loan. National Bank said bluntly that imposes a moratorium on the decision-making in the field of monetary, exchange rate and monetary policy at least until the end of April — then expected arrival of the first tranche of $ 1 billion. Meanwhile, the importers can not buy the currency to take goods to Belarus, traders suspend activities, expecting devaluation. And some banks, using the moment to sell dollars "under the counter".
On the last day of March, the course of buying and selling dollars at most exchange offices almost on par — an average of 3105 rubles. But in fact the currency can only pass, it is unlikely to buy it. How to come out of the situation by those who need the currency to do business?
Businessman Alexander Makaev"Well, how is mined currency? Under the counter, especially who need larger amounts. Banks, including some Russian, offer currency at different exchange rates. This, of course, the gray courses. That is legal currency in the banks can not get, but through informal agreements, through love — you can. Hence, all these triple courses. In the construction market in the "Zhdanovichy" lists the dollar 3400-3700 rubles, very differently. Who has access to what kind of currency, so that myself and leads. Formed this situation specifically, I believe — to create a transitional period for the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, which is inevitable. Now asking for money to support Russia. That, though promising, but will not, because Moscow is waiting for approval Lukashenko on the single currency. Entice the Russian ruble. "
Of the banking community reach information that, from 1 April the cash dollar in exchange may rise to 3,350 rubles. As in the case of cashless, from 2% to 10% can be expanded Exchange corridor cash market. The National Bank does not comment on such a possibility, but ahead of the issue, clarify that the possibility of devaluation is not an option because of the "futility of such a measure."
Meanwhile the market itself begins to adapt to the inevitable prospects of the Belarusian ruble devalued. So, because of restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency by 10% to 20% have already jumped the prices of construction materials. Industry experts believe: increase finally affect the cost of a square meter. Moreover, it is possible that the overall situation under many of the costs will be recalculated retroactively.
Live by their own laws and online retailers. The dollar exchange rate they already held a few days on average at around 3,500. According to the monitoring of the financial portal infobank.by, the most expensive price tags — for products for cars: Rates are typically higher than 3600 rubles per dollar. By the way, the hype with the importation of motor vehicles on the eve of the July increase of duties are trying to blame all the problems of public financiers — say, the panic caused an unreasonable demand for the currency.
Economist Victor Tereshchenko believes that the current situation is, first of all, no one does not like to be controlled, and secondly, in the state there is no provision for the maintenance of financial stability:
"Today, the situation is almost unmanageable. Moreover, investment funds, which last year amounted to a penny, and even with the sale of the shares of "Beltransgaz" had a very modest figure in This year, generally have "zero", and will, apparently, "minus one". Sees only salvation credit — short-sighted policy. Waiting for manna from heaven as cash credit, would like to just $ 6 billion. Russia offers trade credit. Of course, take the money and — vyprosyat, beg. But it does not ease the Belarusian economy. The situation is extremely difficult, as I said, the situation is actually controlled. But one much and do not move — I mean the officials. "
Analysts are convinced that the reluctance of the country's leadership, "release" the ruble is not based on economic calculations, but on politics. Officials are not pleased at the prospect of failure to provide Belarusians campaign promised 500-dollar salary. Thus, says Head of entrepreneurs' movement "Perspective" Anatoly Shumchanka, if the non-state sector to adjust to the new conditions, the budget-sensitive affected:
"Here's how to assess the situation. For example, I or someone else in the long run is not integrated into the current lukaekanomiku. Therefore, in this case, all experienced easily. But those who are deeply and fully integrated in this economy — in enterprises, public sector employees and pensioners — that they will finish. Because wages and pensions issued in rubles, devaluation is inevitable, and that tomorrow they will buy for those rubles — a complex question. Rather, nothing. Yes, the much-vaunted $ 500 average salary again become zilch. But those who have integrated very badly, they're in the majority and form the electorate who voted for the current government and screaming like all is well. So to pay the bills, they will first of all. "
Fear causes extreme depreciation of the ruble. On the shelves are literally zmyataetstsa the large household appliances — refrigerators, washing machines, televisions. People do not wait for the inevitable rise in price due to the possible increase of the dollar and buying goods preventively.