Possible scenario for a new confrontation

Possible scenario for a new confrontation
Not so long ago in northern Israel ended final mezhvoyskovye staff exercises the IDF (Israel Defense Forces), which worked out methods and options of simultaneous warfare on the Lebanese and Syrian fronts. This week took part in the exercises heads of the Ministry of Defence, General Staff officers, Land Forces, Air Force, Navy, Northern Area headquarters, commanders and permanent replacement units.

Focused on the organization of interaction of various arms of the experience of operations in Lebanon and Gaza. In particular, painstakingly honed interaction of intelligence, armor, infantry and artillery units, air force and navy, logistics and communications, medicine and communication troops. Ran teachings chief military school Maj. Gen. Gershon Hacohen. Chief of General Staff Gabi Ashkenazi followed the teachings in the headquarters of the Northern Area. Defense Minister Ehud Barak also took part in the exercises.

Emphasis on the central-NETWORK OPERATIONS

It can be assumed that the exercises are preparing for another war against Lebanon. In the event of another strained relations with its neighbor Israel, taking account of past mistakes, try to do the most harm to their own most dangerous enemy. Current time for the Israeli army may be considered as a very suitable as waiting attack by the Syrian army, weakened by a two-year confrontation with international terrorist groups, is not necessary. Moreover, the destruction of chemical weapons Syria also is an additional guarantee of likely problems for Israel by the ATS.

As anyone can see military action in the troubled Lebanese soil? Get a hard slap in the face in 2006 on «Hezbollah» in the form of significant losses fighter and new armored vehicles, military government of Israel has made itself adequate conclusions. Namely, the IDF has control is unlikely to let the big division tanks and armored vehicles in frontal attacks on settlements. As experience shows, such acts are suitable for the final step of the war. First military operation more possible widespread use of airmobile units and special forces to bypass the majority of small and large communities, Fri.

Apparently, in the strategy of the Israeli army base could be built on the theory of central network operations, the initial position that 10 years ago were placed in the Russian press, Colonel Musa Khamzatov. The Israel Defense Forces will first seek to capture all the major preventive heights, passes, roads, entrances to underground shelters and numerous tunnels with wide application landings supported by aviation and artillery.

Launching of rockets into Israeli areas will naturally, but after the IDF takes all major elevation and enter the tunnel, they swiftly ended. The solution to this puzzles Israeli army may be using guided munitions, cluster and thermobaric bombs. For their effective implementation of the IDF is able to make a single reconnaissance information place over all Lebanese territory. Under the new criteria military units «Hezbollah» will be able to apply only previously installed missiles camouflaged positions, bunkers and tunnels. All retractable at the installed position will rapidly destroyed.

As a result, massive strikes by the Israeli army units and combat groups «Hezbollah» will be ripped up. In addition, they will not have a large object type to attack armored columns, as it was during the second Lebanon war. Discourage the IDF occupied heights under attack by enemy aircraft, undivided sway in the air, and a huge number of UAVs, leading uninterrupted exploration, numerous forces are unlikely to fail. Though what maneuver «Hezbollah» how-ever large forces and resources will be immediately found and suppressed all the might of the Israeli Air Force.

«Tammuz» MOUNTAIN irreplaceable

Possibility of such scenario is high, but not so simple. After all, the mountains and forests of Lebanon — it is not sand Libya and Iraq that perfectly understands the IDF General Staff. As shown by Afghanistan, on difficult terrain, can stall even the all-powerful and ultra-modern U.S. Army.
In Lebanon, the terrain can allow fighters «Hezbollah» tightly pressed against the positions of the Israelis, to avoid losing their artillery and aviation. In addition, the use of artillery and aviation in groups of two or three people, what is war «Hezbollah» is not always advisable. And here we control the IDF has already tested trump card — the new missile complex «Tammuz» of the family «Spike» (Spike NLOS), which stands for Non Line OS Sisht — «out of sight.» The complex is a multi-platform electro-optical missile system for the destruction of tanks, silos, individual targets: ships, boats, helicopters, some militant groups at a distance of 25 km. The accuracy of any contamination on the maximum range is very high — the missile can hit the tank hatch. The complex can be mounted on armored vehicles, UAVs, helicopters, ships, and other platforms.

The rocket is made by traditional aerodynamic design with pull-down wings. «Tammuz» can be induced using UAVs, satellites, aircraft, has a target lock system and remote management by using two-way optical transmission system image. Compactness, speed of deployment and firepower of the complex can significantly reduce the dependence of small units of special forces and paratroopers from the artillery and air support.

Electron-optical missile control allows you to: elect a goal after start or change the type of target; obtain intelligence in real time and organize goal; perform a takeover target after the launch, conduct fire from the closed position; exclude fire on his; makes rocket insensitive to jamming — both electronic and infrared. Start is in 3 modes: «fire and forget», «shot, rated and adjusted», «shot and directed.»

Probable configuration of the complex:

Mini Spyke — 1,500 m, m — 12 kg;
Spyke SR (short range) — 200-800 m, m — 9 kg;
Spyke MR «Gil» (medium range) — 200-2500 m, m — 26 kg;
Spyke LR — 400 m, and BMP infantry, m — 26 kg;
Spyke ER, NT — Dandy (long-range option for mobile combat systems) — 8000 m, m — 33 kg.

The price of one missile 145-250 thousand dollars Weight — 71 kg in the container. Speed ​​- 120-180 m / s. Penetration — 1000 mm. Application for t from -32 to 49 C. Equipped with different types of warheads (PBF and PBF / r). The complex already purchased Azerbaijan, Germany, Spain, Italy, Colombia, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Romania, Singapore, Slovenia, Finland, France, Chile, Ecuador. In an NLOS «Tammuz» Israel sold only in South Korea.
Complex was previously run-in the second Lebanon war. «Tammuz» was the source of significant losses for «Hezbollah», demonstrating the excellent fighting properties and highest precision thanks to new sensors and focusing system. During the second Lebanon war, the IDF used to 500 missiles.

In the case of a likely conflict with Lebanon, Israel is unlikely to be limited to overseas Litani River, as it was in 2006. An advantage of absolute Israeli aircraft, its massive use with virtually no opposition from the groups «Hezbollah», will allow plant landings throughout the entire depth of the Lebanese countryside, including enclaves «Hezbollah». And in this case, «Tammuz» is able to provide the IDF an advantage around the perimeter defense of its own reference pt. Aviation Israel will not tolerate attacks IDF captured bridgeheads large units «Hezbollah» and «Tammuz» and «Spike» protection against small groups of attackers. From «Tammuz» with TBG and all kinds of guided weapons, artillery and aviation Israelis try to kill all known entrances to tunnels used «Hezbollah». Naturally, it will cost Israel very expensive, but worth it.

Perhaps the plan of military control of Israel, the future conflict with Lebanon should be a civilized country, the latest war against the barbarians, run-control technologies for high-tech armies of the developed countries with armies and militias of the Third World.

Combat Operations Strategy «Party of God»

And that may still oppose a similar strategy fighters «Hezbollah» — the «Party of God»? If the command «Hezbollah» will not be able to put the enemy fire strikes frisky with instant departure, the firepower of the «Spike» and «Tammuz» will not leave them no chance. If they do not reconsider their strategy, then, certainly, will be defeated, but for every tool and strategy there is always a reaction.

«Hezbollah» must be applied strategy unlimited mine warfare with the use of a huge number of previously established controlled bombs. IDF units in any case will move on the roads because of losses from the mine war will be avoided. Fighters for «Hezbollah» soars to the heavens value intelligence masking and imitation incorrect positions, weapons and equipment layouts. But the thing that might be contrasted sverhtehnologichny Israeli army — is the ability of the personnel of the small groups to wage war with complete autonomy and the ability to conduct combat actions in many criteria absolutely devastated infrastructure or lack thereof, as it makes the «Taliban» in Afghanistan. ;

For both sides of the conflict also increases the value of a sniper war. Rifles for hitting real targets (unarmored and lightly armored vehicles, airplanes, helicopters, communications equipment and other), 50 caliber BMG and above can play perceptible role in a possible conflict. The large number of sniper guns in forested mountainous terrain in the battlefront «Hezbollah» can act very forge Israeli units.

Likely scenario of a new confrontation «hyenas» in Israel neposlushlivyh scare kids.

With the known strategy of «Hezbollah» act huge number of small units, there may be a lack of effective and highly accurate, but expensive «Tammuz» and «Spike.» Did the Israeli army may also encounter detachment «Hezbollah», especially in difficult terrain, where with the help of frames can be made rapidly introduced amendments purposes.

In addition, on the side of «Hezbollah» have a tactical advantage with the fact that its soldiers are not afraid to act in small groups. Israel is unlikely to fail to adhere to this strategy, except that only commandos and NIGHT MODE. In this regard, there is a danger of imposing IDF night fights on unfamiliar terrain Israelis and sighted. With a similar strategy in Afghanistan faced Frenchman who did not help even a new set of «future soldier» — FELIN. The whole world has bypassed the video where the Mujahideen were posing with their new equipment.

If Israel conflict in the future will not be able to kill all military end formation and structure of «Hezbollah», then later, the organization will become more important military force in the Middle East. Already, thanks to its social institutions and the real support of the population, it enjoys strong support of the Shiite community in Lebanon. Wishing to join the ranks of the organization and to wage war with Israel majestic huge amount. Thanks to strict selection in their ranks, the soldiers «Hezbollah» have strong morale and willingness to die, and to wage war against fanatics are always painful, especially if they are well armed.

STRUCTURE «Hezbollah»

What did of himself at the moment is «Hezbollah»? «Party of God» operates not only in Lebanon, and in almost all the major regions of the world. In Lebanon, its main areas are based in the Bekaa valley, province of Al Janub (South Lebanon), in West Beirut and its southern suburbs. There are cells in South America, Indonesia, Malaysia, Canada, USA, Germany, UK, Belgium. Exploration «Hezbollah» operates television and radio broadcasting organizations and newspapers. Today it is the only public organization structure «Hezbollah». Other parts of the organization, at least, at the international level, are summarized in the cell, which are independent from each other. It is made to increase the safety, that one group had no disk imaging on operational task another.

Military wing «Hezbollah» is understandable under the title «Islamic Resistance Movement» — the same name from Hamas. Prior to the second Lebanon war in the military wing of the «Hezbollah» there were 600-800 active fighters and 3-5 thousand reserve. Special Forces numbered about 300-400 people, is in the main, Spice Communications, Intelligence, operators ATGM MANPADS snipers. Powerful Training Center «Hezbollah» under the title «Sheikh Abdullah» is in the Bekaa valley and is also used by the Lebanese army. Total military wing, according to media reports, there are 16 battalions of 252 people. Nine of them — kids. Soldiers standing military forces «Hezbollah» military training under the control of the Iranian IRGC units stationed at a fixed base in Lebanon. In these divisions Iranian instructor uchyat recruits, who then serve in the infantry and motorized battalions «Hezbollah». Parallel selected fighters with special physical and mental properties. Of preparing their infantry commanders, they are going to explore, MTR and special security apparatus «Hezbollah».

Special Security Apparatus (ASB) on the instructions of the Majlis al-Shura (Supreme Council of «Hezbollah») at the highest level makes shock Prof. operations outside the area of ​​Lebanon. Personnel for special operations forces for intelligence recruited from these people listed as seriously prepared and ready to die in order to fulfill the target. Most of them come from organizations such as «The Power of 17», the PFLP and other Arab and Islamic organizations ceased their activities. All the special operations «Hezbollah» is engaged in ASB. Members of foreign cells intensively study the countries and the languages ​​of the countries in which they have to do set tasks. With the penetration of Israel ASB members use documents, form, instrument and equipment Israelis, they say in Hebrew, study the Talmud, are well versed in the Israeli kitchen.

The members of the special units and detachments penetration suicide differ in uniforms: «Groups of penetration» have coloring Pakistani, Israeli and other armies, the soldiers’ Troop jihad «are greenish and black clothes, they carry on for themselves different types of explosive charges that are hard to find a means of control . Known subsequent «Jihad Groups»: team «Islamabuli» (training and killing politicians), the brigade «Al-Quds» (death by two companies of 56 people); company name Fadhil Shkaki; Ihe company name Ayyash. Through these divisions «Hezbollah» has the ability to collect and review intelligence can plan and conduct special operations in different regions of the world, even in the U.S..

Quality control of the military «Hezbollah» may be illustrated biography of a man who led its military troops who defeated the super modern and the IDF. Preparation, management and conduct of hostilities by the «Hezbollah» in the second Lebanon war led Imad Mughniyah — an outstanding personality, a master of military affairs and conduct special operations in every corner of the globe. Thanks to him, the system was built bunkers and missile launches. During the war, on his orders not rocket transported by road, followed by watching the Israeli drones and aircraft, and conventional donkeys. Israeli military bitterly mocked the occasion, they will have to destroy all the donkeys in Lebanon to complete missile delivery. And all donkeys «Tammuz» is not enough.


On account of Imad Mughniyah, in which Israeli and American intelligence services dubbed «Hyena», hundreds of special operations, many of which are currently in the word «terrorist acts». Here are some of them:

— 1983 — the explosion of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut (63 people killed);
— 1983 — the explosion of the French embassies in Kuwait and the United States;
— 1983 — the explosion of a truck stuffed with explosives in Lebanon (died 241 U.S. Marine and 58 French paratroopers);
— 1984 — the explosion of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, kidnapping CIA station chief in Lebanon, hijacking a Kuwaiti passenger plane, the explosion of the Israeli cultural center in Beirut (85 people died);
— 1985 — hijacking, killing «seals» the United States, killing Russian diplomat and hostage-taking 2-KGB officers;
— 2000 — the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier, Colonel kidnapping IDF having access to quite hidden documents, organizing attacks on the South American destroyer Cole;
— A series of terrorist attacks against the «Taliban» in Afghanistan, support for the Northern Alliance against the «Taliban»;
— The invention of «human bombs» with the suicide bomber’s belt;
— Successfully combating the Pakistani intelligence agency, Libya, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia;
— Settlement of the Iraqi residency in Yemen;
— Training Chechen fighters at bases «Hezbollah» in the first Chechen war;
— Numerous recruiting Israeli Arabs, Bedouin and Druze;
— Recruitment UN soldier in southern Lebanon, which overlap the supply of drugs into Israel, and even the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier.

The motto «Hyenas»: «Initiative — the main component of a terrorist-style.»

After the war in 2006 in order to regain his own style, Israel urgently needed a successful special operation, which could become a public myth. Specifically, such an operation and spent Mossad NIGHT MODE February 2008. In one of the suburbs of Damascus car was blown up, in which together with his deputy was Imad. Israel in one fell swoop deprived Hamas own fierce enemy army and beheaded «Hezbollah», destroying its commander. U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack commented so elimination: «Without this man’s world a better place.» Hardly his successor can change an evil genius lurking war, the creator of the first defeat of the Israeli army.

Soon in the headquarters «Hezbollah» constantly held command and staff exercises management units and groups for different deployment options hostilities. Army «Hezbollah» in 2006 in its development also moved forward, there are new types of weapons of Western, Chinese, Russian and Iranian production. Namely, EW equipment, RES, UAVs, MANPADS. Held staffing reorganization. New missiles «ground-to-ground» now actually shoot through the entire area of ​​Israel. Has its own special operations forces. The total length of tunnels made for defensive purposes in the area of ​​Ku Yachi exceeded 170 km, depth — 40 meters, three or four tiers. They placed the barracks, warehouses and launchers.

Israel, in turn, began to create special units to fight in the underground tunnels, intensively studying the Vietnamese experience in fighting the Yankees with underground guerrillas. In Vietnam, these units are called «tunnel rats». For training and testing of underground war strategy in northern Israel have built an underground city, simulating a complex network of underground bunkers «Hezbollah».

«Hezbollah» has already begun to mobilize all those who have previously participated in the battles with Israel, with the Sunni groups and other internal armed conflicts. Total group «Hezbollah» must achieve 15 — 20 thousand people.

For the past time «Hezbollah» and appeared new enemy — the Palestinian Hamas, the last companion in the struggle against Israel, whose control now fulfills Qatari funds. The leaders of «Hezbollah» said that anyone belonging to Hamas, must withdraw from Lebanon. Clearly, in the current time to the Battalion Hamas’ Brigade Izz al-Din al-Qassam «prepare militants in Syria in operations against the government army and ATS units allied» Hezbollah «. It can be concluded, as opposed to the harsh Jewish state is «Hezbollah».

Time will tell if it will destroy Israel modern sect of the Assassins, as it once did the Mongols of Hulagu. History teaches that one should never disregard the factor «C» — the factor of chance.
Created by Vasily Geranin

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