Stanislav Tarasov: Turkey on the crest of a geopolitical fault: there comes a time Ankara-Moscow alliance

Stanislav Tarasov: Turkey on the crest of a geopolitical fault: there comes a time Ankara-Moscow alliance"Turkey's policy of" zero problems with neighbors "is yielding positive results. With our neighbors have established a regular dialogue and build good neighborly affairs," — said Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu Turkish media. Practically speaking, the way it was before the nastupleniyav North Africa and the Middle East, the paradox of the "Arab Spring" when Turkey stablishing indeed the case, first, with the adjacent countries: Syria, Iran, Iraq, Armenia, Russia, and by some other states. Safeguarded and the strategic partnership with Israel, it happens against the background of perceptible economic development Turkey, increase its geopolitical influence. But later this mechanism, almost all under the influence of the West, began to rapidly break down. At first, there was a breakdown in the Israeli direction. Tel Aviv blocked samples Ankara to act as a mediator in the brain Middle East peace, knowing that she is trying to create a new regional dominance. All ended with the fact that in May 2010, when Israeli commandos storm "Freedom Flotilla" has killed nine people in Turkey. According to Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu, "the country's military, which is called the partner of our people killed on the orders of her own political control." It soon became clear that these tragic acts are only just the tip of the iceberg that breaks between cases with 2 countries, places them in a wide area of confrontation.

Next, the chain of events has been moved to the Iranian soil. When Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Iran's nuclear program from could be solved perfectly in the case, if consider it along with the assessment of military nuclear capability of Israel, in Tehran applauded him, but only until the coming of the Syrian crisis. Turkey, the hard-line up the case with Damascus, in fact one day announced by President Bashar al-Assad "dictator", came out openly with slogans about the need for its removal from power. As written in this regard, Turkish political scientist Emin Cholashan in the newspaper Sözcü, "with Syria were trade relations we have with them 900 km long border. Often on both sides of the border have relatives. Many Syrians attending a particular province of Gaziantep, Kahramanmaras, Kilis and Hatay, contributed to the inflow of money enabled the local community to earn. Besides, was cross-border trade. That was until such time as Erdogan declared opponent of Syria. " Apparently, the head of the Turkish government was counting on the fact that the settlement of the Syrian crisis will be carried out rapidly by the Libyan scenario. Indeed, if the change of regime in Damascus would occur as rapidly as in Tripoli, Ankara could count on geopolitical grant for his role in the operation. But as the stagnant situation in this country where many of the actions were blocked by the position of Russia and China in the UN Security Council, the Turkish horizon suddenly loomed new dangers.

It is a question, first, Iraq. On the days of the Prime Minister of this country Nouri al-Maliki referred to Turkey, "the enemy of the State", referring to its active intervention in the affairs of Syria. At the same time, Baghdad is not limited to aggressive statements. April 22 was halted supply of Iraqi oil to Turkey. However, the Iraqi oil ministry argues that cut was due to "technical problems", but it is for Turkey — a stern tone. Moreover, after an exchange of remarks Edged with Turkey Nuri al-Maliki arrived with a two-day visit to Tehran, where he held talks with leaders of the Islamic Republic "on bilateral cooperation, regional and global dilemmas." As it turns out, high-ranking representatives of the Kurdish and Sunni communities, discussions are the possibility of making a joint vote of no confidence in the Shiite prime minister or to limit his term as head of government with 2 cadences. But like any kind, more are beginning to more clearly outline the Shiite alliance viewed Tehran-Damascus — Baghdad. Moreover, if the earlier difficulties Iraqi qualified by many professionals as a deterrent to Turkey on Syria, the initiative is now in the process of events in this triangle is stamped out of the hands of Turkey. She must find a compromise with the head of the Iraqi Kurdish autonomy Barzani, having at the very own borders, "Syrian hearth." Because as far as Turkey's eagerness to press against the breakwater of the Iraqi Shiites and other groups potentially born after the image-Syria-the "second front." Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan has warned that if the Iraq conflict erupts between Shiites and Sunnis, "Turkey will not remain on the sidelines."

And that's not all prepyadstviya Turkish diplomacy. On the days of the favorite turokkipriotov Dervis Eroglu has called to hold an international conference "5 parties, including guarantors" to try to solve the problem of Cyprus before 1 July 2012. He warned that if the conference is held, any party will go the method. Recall that on July 1, the EU presidency on a rotational basis crosses towards the Republic of Cyprus, which since 2004 has been a full member of the European Union. In this regard, management of Turkey's once stated that, if settlement is not reached before July 1, and to the Republic of Cyprus enters the EU presidency, Ankara will freeze their affairs with the European Union.

In this context, the Turkish media often mention the tipo prescribed plan "B", the outlines of which were announced by the Minister for EU Affairs Egemen Bagis: in the case of the failure of negotiations on a Cyprus settlement Ankara may announce the annexation of the northern part of Cyprus, or enter the path of the final recognition of the existence of Cyprus 2-independent states. So tight timing of Turkey's Cyprus settlement process by July 1 is not just a symbolic character. The fact that in the case of developing Cyprus loose federation, but this format is automatically Northern Cyprus EU member. This means the actual entry — but only the Turkish Cypriots — the European Union, while Turkey is outside the bounds of society. If at the time the entry of Northern Cyprus and Turkey in the EU will extend, in the long term there is a severe problem of geopolitical division of the Turks in the "Europeans" and "Asians". Moreover, the contours will be viewed by another 1st voiced in the West geopolitical project — joining the EU a federal country with the inclusion of Cyprus in the zone of influence of western European part of Turkey. It is no coincidence, Cyprus President Demetris Christofias had a meeting with the chairman of the Chamber of Commerce of Izmir Ekrem Demirtas. They read as not just about saving tremendous chance for the creation of joint Cyprus, and the options for entering the settlement process through the economy-start joint investment in the development of the whole of Cyprus. "In reality, hitch is in politics, but when you are looking for political solutions — it is a protracted process. Let's do even small steps in the economy, and political solutions will come, "- stated Demirtas. But what exactly? According to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, at the present time international conference on Cyprus can not be convened, as in the negotiations on Cyprus settlement parties have gained sufficie
nt progress in addressing major problems. For his part, the President of Cyprus Dimitris Christofias called on Turkey to abandon threats to disrupt the presidency of the Republic in the EU. Incidentally, a similar appeal was made to the Turkish and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. situation exacerbated by another announcement the discovery in the eastern Mediterranean large supplies of oil and gas, which has pull in this region of the world some international players with different scenarios in this region of the world.

Ankara will find a way out of a difficult situation? First, we note that Erdogan for any balance of power in the region is not going to aggravate relations with Russia. More , after the victory in the presidential election of Vladimir Putin, he has at its disposal a reliable Russian rear, emphasizing that if you want you can change many of the formed composition. Especially since our homeland at the moment impartially interested in disaffected West, but measured and strong Turkey. The plot of the overall long-term strategic economic interests with access to confidential political partnership can provoke as more intense presence of the Russian Federation in the Middle East, and more than a stronger role Turkey in determining the future of this region of the world. Turkey comes to the realization that in Eurasia, the Middle East Bolshennom begins a tough game, and it only in alliance with Russia could act as not to drag for another's chestnuts out of the fire, as it was during the "Arab Spring", and the present international Player with the properties of the regional favorite. At the moment, the main thing for Turkey — do not miss a moment of the transition to the new geopolitical quality.

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