Stanislav Tarasov: Turkey to push for war

Stanislav Tarasov: Turkey to push for warIn Syria, "equation" there are new "unknown", but such type that simply predicted. Just around the same time as Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has harshly criticized Turkey, accusing it of interfering in Iraq's internal affairs and fueling the conflict in the game entered a favorite of Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, Massoud Barzani. At the press conference, he not only called for Syrian Kurds oppose the regime of Bashar al-Assad, and vowed to support the Syrian own countrymen. According to him, "the situation in Syria for us strategically critical, taking into account the length of the border between Syria and Iraq." Taking into account that in Syria two million Kurds live, it is about the application of strategic character, since the Syrian bridgehead begin to occlude the interests of Turkey, Iran, Iraqi Kurdistan, and, of course, most of Syria.

Turkey's conflict with Iraq developed by a curious story. 19 December 2011 in accordance with the decision of the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite dominated what was issued a warrant for the arrest of Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi. The reason for taking action against the person served as a senior grateful testimony 3 of his bodyguards. They told investigators that he is the manager of the terrorist network, which in recent years not once conducted terrorist attacks across the country. Sam Al-Hashimi has denied all charges against him. In addition, he accused Prime Minister al-Maliki's desire to "monopolize the entire legislative process." Ultimately Hashimi asked for shelter in northern Iraq, the Kurds, Baghdad claimed to extradite him to Turkey defended Hashimi which stated that when the Shiite government in Baghdad will strengthen its position, it would ruin Iraq. But like any case, the Prime Minister Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in these days of holding consultations with the manager of Turkish intelligence Hakan Fidanom.

The problem is that the first Americans in Iraq relied on Shiites versus Sunnis, who relied on the regime of Saddam Hussein. Such a scheme is almost automatically led to the strengthening of the autonomy of Iraqi Kurdistan and the expulsion of Sunnis on the stage of political struggle. Moreover, created a certain ability to block the Iraqi and Iranian Shiites, as the ruling Alawites in Syria. Turkey, which has appeared in the wake of U.S. policy, tried to break the union, making a bet on the Sunnis in Iraq and in Syria the alliance with the Iraqi and Syrian Kurds. So in fact, under the pretext of "democratization" of Iraq and Syria, preparing their split. It is no coincidence Ankara contributed to the creation on its territory Syrian opposition forces, performed one time almost as a head of Syrian "Modera". Now after the announcement Barzani Kurds out of the game that not only dramatically reduces the ability of the pressure on the official Damascus, and in fact leads to an alliance Iraq — Syria — Iran.

So it was that in an Istanbul hotel "Conrad" in what took place in the days of the Turkish-Russian conference of Turkish Studies, and took part in what the creator of this article, immediately took the role of Turkey's foreign affairs ministers meeting of the Council of Arab Gulf countries. A few hours before the opening of the Forum hotel was filled by journalists from many countries, who were waiting for fundamental political messages. Indeed, at a press conference, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey holds the same position on Syria, but will not support EU sanctions against Iran "not counting those that have been approved by the UN Security Council." In this — the essence created the modern intrigue, as the UN Security Council only our homeland and China oppose sanctions against Iran. So Makar, Turkey against Iran has decided to join the ranks not with its Western allies, which can be considered the main political sensation. Moreover, Davutolgu specially stressed that Turkey does not provide a ground for military operations against Iran. Since the official reaction of Ankara reacted to the publication in the American newspaper Wall Street Journal that the Pentagon wants to do in this country, the latest military base on the border with Iraq. It is no coincidence was the fact that at the time of the meeting of foreign ministers in Istanbul Ministers of the Council of Arab Gulf countries, U.S. State Department spokesman Victoria Nuland said subsequently: "We all know that a few weeks back the Minister of Foreign Affairs Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu was in Iran. Directly behind this visit Davutoglu was optimistic the issue that Iran will soon give us the right answer. But we have so far received no response. "It was an open allusion to the fact that the mission Davutoglu in Iran is estimated by Washington as" bad. "This is — in-1's. Vo-2, likely a pre-emptive attempt to implement the Turkish-Iranian arrangements Syria. At the same time, as the minister of foreign affairs said Salehi, "The United States began to call Iran to begin negotiations oboestoronnie hidden by owner", in other words to play with Tehran now and Turkish "card."

On Turkey at the moment is the active pressure to force her to join the so-referred to as the oil embargo against Iran. January 23, 2012 the EC announced the introduction of sanctions against Iran, involving the introduction from 1 July 2012, restrictions on the import of Iranian oil. But EU officials have not given up existing contracts with Iran in 2012. They want to come back to this issue on July 1, 2012. Earlier, as they say in the East, "or the Sultan dies, or donkey will die." Then why push Turkey to begin the first pull "Iranian hot chestnuts out of the fire", because Iranian oil provides nearly 40 percent of Turkey's economy needs?

So viewed a particular scenario of the West do except the Syrian and Iraqi confrontation, a system of contradictions is between Turkey and Iran and the Middle East to play labeled "map" of their own interests. As the creator of these lines at the "Konrad" in Istanbul on the sidelines of the Forum of Ministers of foreign affairs of the Council of Arab Gulf countries, a senior Turkish diplomat, "Ankara is that whatever was necessary to neutralize the sample involve them in any regional conflict because of this benefit only the "third force" … " With all that the other party does not conceal the fact that the main scenario played out in the region plays written in the West. According to him, the last time it should wait for the collapse of the Syrian position on the League of Arab States, which are formed on the basis of different resolution in the UN Security Council. Then, except for the Kurdish factor, the stage of high politics will display the "Armenian question". Immediately intensify pressure Israel has created a "cordon sanitaire" around Turkey, the method of forming military alliances with France, Germany, Greece, Armenia, Romania and Bulgaria.

In the end, instead of the expected joint pressure on Syria or Iran from the West, Turkey threatened to hit back immediately with a 2-or 3-lines, including the line Shiite-Sunni split. In the meantime, after the statement of Barzani and aggravation of the Turkish-Iraqi relations and on the approach of spring, you should wait for the revitalization of the Kurdish rebels in southeastern Turkey wilayats. It is possibl
e that warming at the same time, the regional ambitions of Turkish politicians, the United States will try to make the conditions under which the drawing of the country in the armed conflict will be inevitable. So the Turkish diplomacy a serious choice: one wrong step could lead to catastrophic consequences for the future of the country.

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