The strategy of the Russian Federation (Stratfor.com USA)

The collapse of the Russian Union in 1991, sent a process that came with the advent of Russian Empire in the 17th century. His task was to incorporate four key elements: Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Caucasus and Siberia. The axis of the St. Petersburg-Moscow had its nucleus, and our homeland, Belarus and Ukraine were the center of gravity. The borders were always busy, mostly expanding, but at times reduced when international situation worsened. They have gained greater expansion in the period from 1945 to 1989, when bowed central Germany, dominating the countries liberated during the second world war. Russian Empire had never lived in the world. Like many empires have always been part of it, that resisted (sometimes ruthlessly) and parts that have been sought out for adjacent states (as well as parts of other states, longed for RF).

Russian Empire refuted the assumption that the political and military power of asking a strong economy: it has never been prosperous, but was often severe. Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler, as more than forty years, Cool war resisted even richer America, without regard to the least developed and least a technological economy. Its financial weakness, of course, from time to time weakened its military power, but in order to understand Russia, principally to realize that things between economic and military power is not clear.

Economy and Security

There are many circumstances Russian economic dysfunction, but the main, if not the full explanation is geography and transportation. Russians and Ukrainians are the best in the world cereal land, comparable only to that of South American Midwest. The difference in transport, the possibility of carrying collect the rest of the empire, and remote population centers. In the U.S., there is the river system of Missouri-Mississippi-Ohio, which integrates the area between the Rocky Mountains and the Appalachian, Russian River are not uniting transportation arteries, and taking into account the distance and the shortage of other modes of transport, Russian steel roads have never been able to provide continuous, reliable transport of agricultural methods.

This is not the states that did not have the integration of the imperial economy and that it is not a factor that unites it together. It states that the shortage of economic integration, and the weakness of agricultural methods of transport and it is substantially limited the welfare of Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. At the same time, the relative underdevelopment Empire and the Union did not feasible for their successful competition with Western Europe. Because present financial motivation for different parts of the empire and the union to be integrated among themselves. It may be a synergy in the lower levels of development between these nations.

The economy was one of the reasons that kept the Russian Empire and the Russian Alliance together. The second factor was the military and security apparatus. Russian security apparatus that is playing a significant role in keeping the Empire at first, and then the union together, and in almost all directions, it was a more modern and efficient institution which they have been. Whatever the desire of constitutional republics to leave the empire or alliance does not appear, they were systematically repressed internal security, detecting and destroying opposition to the center. You can speak like this: Army creates an empire. Common economic interests were feeble force holding it together, and the security apparatus was her greatest strength.

That empire and the alliance survived, they had to strengthen economic ties between the regions, with all this, some regions would have been the worst, and the other in the best possible position. This could only happen if the government is pretty much to introduce a reality. Since the government in the main been limited in most areas, the security apparatus was answerable for all. When the security apparatus suffered a defeat (as at the end of the First World War, or in 1989-1991), the government could not resist. When he inquired — a country held together.

In the Russian Empire and the economy safety were subject vseobyatnoy ideology: Russian Orthodox Church, which provides a rational system. Municipal security apparatus worked with the church and against dissidents and other religions in the empire. In the Russian Union of religious ideology has been replaced by a secular ideology of Marxism-Leninism. Russian Alliance to use its own security apparatus to transform the economy and crush the opposition of high cost of this transformation. In some sense, Marxism-Leninism ideology was more effective, as the Russian Orthodox Church has made religious differentiation, and Marxism-Leninism was aggressive toward all religions and prototype treated all ethnic groups and nations.

The fall of Russian Union began with the crisis in the economy, which made the crisis in security in the KGB. Yuri Andropov, head of the KGB, the first to realize the depth of the abyss into which the Soviet economy was falling because of the growing corruption under Brezhnev and because of unnecessary spending on defense. KGB conformed two things. In 1-x, Russia had to restructure (Perestroika) or the abyss. In-2, is normally closed Russian Union had to be changed and the advice had to open up the western technologies and methods (Publicity). Russian favorite Misha Gorbachev was a reformer, but he was a Communist who tried to reform the system in order to save the party. It came from the KGB model. Andropov and his game was that the Soviet Union could survive and open to the West without decay, and can change their geopolitical interests (for example, the prevalence in Eastern Europe) on economic affairs, not sprawling Soviet Union. They lost the bet.

The fall of the USSR

The nineties were bloody period for the former Soviet Union. Apart from a few regions of the country and the collapse of the Russian security apparatus led to chaos, and privatization turned into theft. Not surprisingly, more experienced and well-organized part of the Russian system, the KGB, played a major role in the kleptocracy and retained more of the other institutions of its institutional identity. For a long time its control over the economy remains informal, while a representative of the security, Vladimir Putin, has not become the head of the country.

Putin has developed three principles. First principle is that the security system is the heart of the country. Second, that Moscow is the heart of. Third, that our homeland is the heart of the former Soviet Union. These principles did not appear in a moment. The strength of the KGB, renamed the FSB and SVR, slowly moved from the predominance of the informal system with kleptocracy to a periodic dominance of state apparatus and security services, recreating an old model. Putin took control of the regional government, appointing governors and controlling industry outside of Moscow. And more fundamentally, he carefully began to promote Russia equal to the first in the middle of the former Russian Union.

Putin came to power in the wake of the war in Kosovo. Our homeland is insisting that the West did not go to war against Serbia, the rest of the former Yugoslavia. Russia ignored, and the lack of impact has left President Boris Yeltsin humiliated. But the "orange revolution" in Ukraine, Putin assured that the U.S. will try to divide Russia into parts, if someone like Yeltsin came to power. Ukraine economically and geographically crucial for the Russian national security, and Putin beheld attempt the creation of pro-Western government, wanting to join NATO. And beheld that Washington is using the CIA-fund
ed non-governmental organization promoting the change of government, trying to permanently weaken Russia. When the Orange Revolution took place, Putin has begun to correct the situation.

The first step he gave to understand that our homeland regained much of its strength and is ready to use it. The second step, he showed that South American guarantees are worthless. Georgian-Russian war in 2008 and made the first and second. The Russian had a spirited counter-offensive, the Americans and the related wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, could not answer. The lesson was not only for Georgia (which, like Ukraine, wanted to become a member of NATO). He was also for Ukraine and all other countries of the former Soviet Union, showing that our homeland again becomes heart of Eurasia. Also, one of the last projects of Putin, the Eurasian Alliance, linking together Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, a large economic and military part of the former Soviet Union. Throw in the Ukraine, and the last Russian Alliance there even more.

Recreating Alliance

For the reconstruction of the Union of the Russian Federation — a strategic necessity. Putin said that the fall of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical disaster. RF need financial integration, namely obtained through the recent economic strategy of post-Soviet Russian Federation, consisting in the export of raw materials (the main energoelementov). Union with countries such as Kazakhstan and Ukraine energy for grain provides Moscow leverage on the rest of the world, especially in Europe. And fundamentally, it provides strategic depth.

The whole world knows that the invasion of the Russian Federation is unimaginable. The Russian can understand it. They remember that in 1932 Germany was in ruins. By 1938, she was very strong. 6 years — is not enough, and although this evolution is unlikely, with the Russian point of view, it should be taken seriously in the long term (to plan for the worst and hope for the best).

Because heart Russian strategy, after the restoration of state authority in Russia, is the creation of a system of relations within the former Soviet Union that will provide economic ownership and strategic depth, but for all that the Russian Federation will not allow the undisputed right to ignore the internal laws of other nations. In contrast to the Russian Empire or the Russian Union, Putin's strategy is to obtain the benefits of the relationship on a common basis without the responsibility for other people.

To achieve this goal the U.S. war in Iraq and Afghanistan were God's gift. Before September 11, the U.S. was deeply involved in the separation of parts of the former Soviet Union, for example, the Baltic states and their integration into the Western system. After September 11, the U.S. wars have become obsessed with the jihadists, giving the RF window ability to stabilize and grow their own regional power.

After the United States withdrew its forces from Afghanistan, Russia is worried that Washington will cooperate own focus on China with a renewed focus on Russia. The likely upshot of these conflicts is not in the interests of Russia. Because one part of the Russian external strategy — is to extend and to increment the South American obsession with Iran. At present, for example, our native land, Iran — the only big country that supported the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Our homeland wants to build pro-Iranian Syria — not as long as it is in the interests of Moscow, but as of now, all that distracts the U.S. from the Russian Federation is working to extend the capabilities perevossozdat last Russian Alliance.

The crisis in Europe similarly favorable Russia. The difficulties that Germany has with the EU until it grew to the size of a complete rupture, and may not be increased. But these difficulties mean that Germany will find other partners to lower the tension of their own position and that creates power. Germany is heavily dependent on Russian energy exports, and although this relationship may be reduced in the coming years, our homeland is working with the current variant of the future. Germany seeks out potential economic partners and, more fundamentally, while European problems Germany does not want to be caught off the U.S. attempt to redraw the boundaries of Russia. The missile defense system is not significant, as it does not threaten Russia, but the South American presence in the region worried about Moscow. For Germany, the Russian Federation belief that the U.S. is a destabilizing force, may be a great achievement.

Other issues are secondary. In China and Russia have questions, but China can not represent a significant danger to the basic interests of, yet fails to perform maritime invasion of Russia, and he can not. Also, of course, there are also economic and political issues, but China is not in the heart Russian strategic problems.

For Russia the main strategic task is the predominance of the former Russian Union without becoming its patron. Ukraine — the main missing element, and a long, difficult political and financial game is already underway. Second game in Central Asia, where our homeland systematically promotes its strength. Third in the Baltic Sea, where the course has not yet made. And there is a never-ending conflict in the North Caucasus, which always creates a door for a new promotion Russian forces to the south. Russian foreign policy is built around the need to buy time to complete its evolution.

To do this, Russia must keep the Yankees in the abstract, and the RUSSIAN strategy in the Middle East serves the purpose. The second part of the strategy — to secure the western direction, drawing Germany into a mutually beneficial economic relations without creating significant resistance in Poland and resisting South American presence in the region. Will it it depends equally on Iran and Russia.

Our homeland has gone very far from the place where it started Yeltsin. Security Services were again heart of the country. Moscow dominates Russia. Our homeland is moving to the predominance of the former Soviet Union. The main enemy, the United States, distracted, Europe is weak and fragmented. Naturally, our homeland economically dysfunctional, but it was hundreds of years and do not always mean that it is weak. On this day, our home wants to be strong in the near abroad, consisting of the republics of the former USSR. Having come this far, it does not try to solve the unsolvable problem of.

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