Bloody challenge

Details of the tragedy are still unknown, so can only be called a field, a set of options, who is behind the crime. Whoever it was, his purpose was not to kill or injure those random people who at that moment were to October, the goal was to challenge society and sow fear in him. Objectives — political.

Technical options seem unlikely accident and reckless hooliganism. Too high a price that mischief.

If we talk about political purposes, there can be two, and the opposite.

The first — the destabilization and the discrediting of authority. Saucy blast in broad daylight in the center of the capital — a challenge to the authorities. Moreover, the explosion took place against the background of a severe economic crisis, the queues outside the exchanger when the population sweeps the products from store shelves. Message from terrorist attack — the power lost control of the situation, and not only in economics but also in the field of security. People immediately come to the memory of the explosion at the celebration of Independence Day in 2008, artists who, despite persistent, but unsightly efforts have not been found.

Theoretically, the organizers of such an attack could be any radical opposition groups, certain circles in government and foreign forces interested in destabilizing Lukashenko. Radicals could be outraged that the government started a war to destroy the opposition, they might be willing to take revenge for the fact what's going on in the country after December 19. Although, if people in Belarus and there, they would rather attack directed at officials than normal, any innocent people, it would be the type of terror Italian "Red Brigades", but not a mass, a blind terror of the Islamists. Minsk is more like an explosion of similar explosions in the Moscow subway, which made the Islamists.

The probability that didand some people from the security forces, then to "solve" the attack and prove his nezamyanyalnasts, it is still low. Price disclosure in this case — guaranteed bullet.

The second possible target of a terrorist attack — to discredit the opposition. Put the blame on her, they say, fell coup, and so she went to the open terror. It legitimizes repression, gives authorities the image of defender of the people of madmen who are ready for power at all. The explosion not only distracts the attention of the people from both repression and economic hardship, but also directs the popular anger at those who did this massacre.

Such a scenario, in general, is possible, and expressed a similar version of the explosion July 4, 2008. Although its credibility is questionable: the opposition leaders are either in prison or under house arrest or under close surveillance by the KGB. Well, I do not specifically what they are organized and a fortiori they did not.

It's hard to argue rationally when you see the photos of the victims, blood, dead, read the stories of people in including and their colleagues, when you realize that this horror came and the Belarusian land. But this is not an element did a geek with a cold cynical calculation. And the real answer Belarusian society he will — if he miscalculate when not only appear in court performer or performers, but if the script is broken customers.

After all, this blood is not worth any political purpose.

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