Experts of the Center for Strategic Research commissioned by the Committee of Civil Initiatives Kudrin prepared extensive study, based on estimates of the participants formed focus groups of the broad-based.
Political analysts wondered how the revolution occurred in Russia — voluntary self-renewal authority or power of mass civil disobedience, writes "Kommersant". Alternative to political renewal respondents named a national scenario of extinction.
In the focus groups established the CSR, includes citizens of all ages — from pensioners to teenagers as well as with different levels of education (university or not). Group operated in Moscow, Samara, Vladimir, and other cities. In addition, the survey was conducted in a group of workers from Dagestan, who live in Moscow on 5-10 years.
All the aforesaid group considered the possibility of revolution as the only possible alternative to the renewal of power when power refuses voluntary upgrade. Experts stated that now "fears and fears of revolution with its possible excesses expressed much less frequently than in the spring," that is in March, when the presidential election.
Drop mass protest activity in Moscow should not reassure the authorities, since this protest movement gradually structured. CSR staff also notes decline of public confidence in the institutions of government and in the first instance to the president. PR activity is also president of the unanimous negative perception in the focus groups. Finally, respondents CSR "very negative attitude laws reinforce the rules of holding rallies libel laws, non-profit organizations, etc., hinder the action of the legal opposition."
If in spring 2012. interviewed often reminisced about the old merit of Vladimir Putin, now in Moscow and in the regions on the achievements of President did not tell anybody. Showed dramatic changes of the middle class: before they have a negative attitude to the head of state, and now their relationship became hostile and alienated.
Evaluation of the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev also undergone changes. If spring respondents perceived it with irony, but rather a good-natured, but now the figure of Prime Minister was not heard in the focus groups. Respondents expressed the unanimous negative attitude to the "United Russia", although spring estimates were not readily identified.
It was concluded that in this case it could be a transition stage between "dying ideology Putin's stability and those ideologies that come to replace it." CSR staff focus groups suggested 88 characteristics of power (44 positive and 44 negative), and according to the survey average of positive characteristics accounted for only 22% to 48% negative. Only 12% of Russians have concluded that the government works for the people, the opposite opinion to varying degrees hold 88% of the respondents. Worth to point out that given the characteristics of the 88, no focus group did not choose the following distinctive quality "power knows what to do next."
Assessment of the brightest people's attitudes to authority gives the perception of the concepts of "power" and "the people" through the characteristics of animals. Most often, the power compared to the "wild boar, which is only a little," and people with "a dog that is used for food from the master's table." Dagestani authorities respondents named the bear, and the people — foxes. Moscow teenagers felt the power goats, and the people — rats.
Of the perfect power even more symptomatic. If Dagestanis closer perfect representation of the State as an ant hill, where the citizens — the ants, and the government — their uterus, the Moscow teenagers characterize the best power leader, and the people — a pack of wolves. But the most common view in focus groups featured the "power-maid" and "nation-hero."
However, with increasing distrust of the authorities there and increasing fear of losing what we have today. If the Gorbachev and Yeltsin eras by strong people cope with instability, but now people want to change for the better, but it scares the fear of losing what is already there.
Similar sentiments can lead to the idea of "updating through a revolution," the expert concluded. However, the "classic" revolution based on an armed uprising in Russia is impossible, because the people on it is not ready and is not targeted.
However, the population does not believe in a bloodless, legitimate electoral change of government in the elections under the pressure of social forces. Remain two options, experts concluded CSR. Minority hopes that the government under pressure from mounting problems and people's distrust survive voluntary self-renewal, and the change of president is not required.
However, the majority considered this option utopia, naming a different, more realistic and tough scenario: "mass civil disobedience with the growth of economic and social problems, as well as updates of generations." But you may have unpredictable consequences, experts warn.
At the same time, you should pay attention to such "symptoms" as a total disregard for the concepts of "law", "election", "free enterprise," "private property", which are almost not mentioned in the focus groups, the absolute lack of confidence in political parties, demonstrate their own "inefficiency and futility," and the increasing helplessness, which plunges society. Last seen in the inability of citizens to act and learn skills that "can be quite effective." Coupled with a sense of the futility of their actions, the country remains the only perspective that can make a real alternative to all types of revolutions, "extinction of the nation under the influence of the loss of skills, depression and alcohol abuse."
CSR experts in their time to prepare the program for Putin's first term, but the high point came a center of expertise in this year, when the organization gave a very precise and correct prediction of events in the country. Experts drew four scenarios of the situation in Russia, the latter of which is assumed to deepen the "political reaction". As observers have concluded, the experts were remarkably accurate in his assessment.
In addition, a center of expertise provided to the public and harsh weather on a six-year reign of Vladimir Putin: In accordance with the plan, to the mid-term in Russia will have to hold early parliamentary elections by the end of Putin's government rating drops to 10%. The fields for maneuver in power no longer exists, the expert concluded.