Famous Russian economist, former advisor Andrei Illarionov, Putin said that Moscow would obviously require certain conditions for the Minsk loan. "Russia threatened economic and political sovereignty of Belarus", — said Illarionov.
April 8-10, Andrei Illarionov made in Minsk during the first forum of Liberal Youth EU "Eastern Partnership". After participating in the forum, Mr. Illarionov gave an interview to Liberty.
TsigankovHow do you assess the current financial crisis in Belarus? Or is it, as we are assured of power, a small episode, and everything will be fine in a few months, or it is a sign of more profound negative effects in the Belarusian economy?
Illarionov: Both. There are elements of the system and the general crisis of nerefarmavanastsyu the Belarusian economy, napavplyanavym, parastatal management. And then there is an element that now came to the fore — this is a currency crisis. This zavyshanasts of the national currency against the currencies of major trading partners, the inability to ensure the stability of the national currency at current volumes of foreign exchange reserves and will trade balance. This is a classic question for first-year students of economic faculties.
Tsigankov: And your recipe?
Tsigankov: Despite all its negative consequences?
Illarionov: There are no negative effects. From an economic point of view, it is quite obvious, natural and necessary decision. Any sensible government should take it. If the Belarusian authorities have no such desire or understand, then it simply means to increase the number of issues on its head. If the Belarusian authorities want to increase the problems in my head and on the head of all Belarusians, let them get on with it.
Tsigankov: In recent years, the authorities held the course through foreign loans. Minsk considers the current situation improve with the Russian loan. According to you, or to determine the Moscow granting this loan any serious demands?
Illarionov: I do not know what decision the Russian leadership, but I have warned in their place a loan with some conditions. They can be very diverse — from economic assets in Belarus (pipelines, businesses) to any political commitments. This is quite natural, and it is impossible to accuse Russia of some insincere approach.
Tsigankov: You're just talking about what many fear Belarusians — that Russia now threatens the economic sovereignty of Belarus. In your opinion, is there a purpose at the Kremlin?
IllarionovYes, not only economic, but political. And why not? If the partner (or client) is so stupid that bring the condition of the house to collapse, and then turns to a neighbor for help, then, of course — "we are ready to provide this assistance, but it is necessary for us to get something." This is standard, which can be seen by any State or entity. Imagine that the loans are not without conditions. And it does not come up in the East, it came up with the West. But in the East, learned how to use it
Tsigankov: On the basis of this association schemes, no "friendship" and "union state" does not exist?
IllarionovWhat is friendship? Friendship can be between two people. But what friendship can be between the states?
Using your question, I would say about the attitude of the current Russian authorities to Belarusian. I think for anybody no big secret here that Lukashenko — not "soft Hard". But he has to deal with.
Ceteris paribus the Russian leadership would like to have in his place someone else. But I am reminded of the quote Lukashenko, who once promised to go to the dugout and shoot from there. And to some extent he succeeded, he quite firmly located in the dug-out and "fired off" and from Russia and the West, and from its own citizens.
People in the Kremlin are pragmatic and understand that if it is not currently possible to smoke out of the dugout to this, we have to deal with him. And it's easier to do if you have some compelling arguments. And if Lukashenko himself, creates a situation rout of civil society than the cuts currently possible contacts with the West, it complicates their position, since it leaves only channel of foreign contacts — is Russia. And the Russian government has nothing against it, it says — "go on, we will not disturb you weaken your position." If Minsk worsen their economic situation, declining devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, causing an economic and monetary crisis in the country, Russia will only say — "aslablyaysya, and the glory of God. We use it for their own purposes." And rightly so.