Members: Boris Zheliba economist and former chairman of the National Bank of Belarus Stanislav Bogdanovich.
Actions of the authorities in a crisis
Valery Karbalevich"The currency crisis in the country escalates. Not only the National Bank does not release the currency of reserves, but commercial banks do not sell it. How to evaluate in these circumstances the authorities? It seems that the National Bank and the government took a bystander. Lukashenko blamed the currency crisis of citizens who want to buy foreign cars. As far as adequate to the situation of the authorities? "
Boris Zheliba"The deficit currencies paralyze economy, which serves imports. Importers can not buy the currency. The result is higher prices for imported goods. And people can not buy the currency in exchange. Legal and natural persons to take currency bank deposits. It threatens to leave banks without resources. Banks have restricted the issuance of ruble-denominated loans to households even to ease the pressure on the foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank.
As for the actions of the authorities in such circumstances, they are wrong. We had to listen to the IMF and the devaluation of several steps. And so to avoid a multiplicity of courses. The refusal of the official devaluation has led to the fact that we got the actual devaluation, got a panic fear which the National Bank. That is, the negative effects of devaluation, which would prevent the National Bank, they come. National Bank has thrown in one direction or the other, and the situation is getting worse. Government inaction. Premiere can not hear. "
Stanislav Bogdanovich"The main mistake is that the government did not recognize the existence of the monetary and economic crisis in the country, the inefficiency of the administrative management model.
Some steps are being made in the right direction, but haphazardly and without giving the public for their actions. Is it right that asking loans in Russia are going to cut the budget deficit from 1.5 to 3%, increased the refinancing rate to 12% (and you need at least 15%, as inflation in the annual calculation of the 13%), National Bank increased the reserves.
The share of imports in GDP is 65-70%. Therefore, the presence of a civilized exchange market — a necessary factor for our economy. "
What's wrong with mnozhnasts exchange rates?
Karbalevich"De facto, the country has developed mnozhnasts exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. Belarus back in the 1990s. Explain what's wrong with this situation for the economy? . "
Zheliba"When a multiplicity of courses economy looks like a distorting mirror. The economy comes disorder, distortion. There are no real coordinates to determine the economic condition of the company. Here, for example, how to make out the accounting documents? It should be at the official rate, at which the currency is bought. This is very bad for the economy. "
Bahdankevich"It dezarganizatsyya entire market, deterioration of the investment image of Belarus. This destruction of small businesses, because it is most difficult to acquire currency. Worse can not think of. This leads to increased corruption and the gray market, devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. It was impossible to prevent the destruction of such an achievement, as a civilized monetary and foreign exchange market. "
As the currency crisis affects the economy?
Karbalevich"Here there are reports that some segments of the economy simply paralyzed. What is happening in the country — it is only a currency crisis, or is it a full-blown economic crisis? As the currency crisis affects the economy? Does it lead to the strengthening of the administrative methods of management? Feels the crisis ordinary citizens, who do not need the currency, because it is not engaged in the business ceased to travel abroad? "
Zheliba"Our economy has long been in permanent crisis, which has now entered the stage of exacerbation. Now the pace of economic growth will slow down. This also applies to ordinary citizens. Because prices rise. Raising the refinancing rate leads to what will be expensive denominated loans. This will result in a decline in real wages. The next year, we need to return billions of dollars of debt. Where to find them? I think the economic situation will get worse. "
Bahdankevich"There will be a large negative social consequences of the crisis. Need a recognition of the crisis, the devaluation of no less than 20%, receiving investments this year by $ 6 billion. It is necessary to budget cuts. That is unpopular measures required for the recovery of the economy. "