April 8-10 in Warsaw hosts regular session of the East European School of Political Studies. This part of the project of the Council of Europe, registered in Ukraine. The theme of the session was the political situation in Belarus after the presidential elections in Belarus place between the EU and Russia, the state of the Belarusian economy.
Here is the abstract of some Polish speakers.
Professor Marek Dabrowski, Chairman of CASE — Center for Social and Economic Research.
In 2002, in Minsk, I gave a talk, "Can Belarus remain non-market enclave in the heart of Europe." My response was rather negative. I predicted the evolution toward greater rynkavastsi with Lukashenko or his care. For me it was a surprise that this economy has survived.
Which of Belarus took place? The Belarusian economy has become more market-oriented than it was 9 years ago, but it is still lack of market. Belarusian model — is not unique in the world, you can find historical analogies — the economy Tito's Yugoslavia, Hungary's economy 70s, Poland in 1982-1989. Weakness of an economy: low competitiveness, difficulties in achieving macroeconomic balance.
What factors ensured sustainability of the Belarusian economy:
- Russian subsidies (an important but not the only factor).
- The favorable global environment — at the beginning of zero years growing economies around the world, and those who have made reforms, and those that did not make them, including Belarus.
- Yet there was some evolution of the Belarusian economic system toward greater rynkavastsi.
I believe that a resource of this model have been exhausted due to the following reasons:
- Not the best prospects for the Russian economy, the fact that in globally conditions will be worse than it was before the crisis.
- Rather, in This year, or next year Russia will join the WTO, which significantly changes the perspective of the customs union.
- With political reasons, the EU is hardly possible to expect the initiative to liberalize bilateral trade.
Wojciech Boroditš-Smolinsky, a member of the board of the Foundation "Center for International Relations."
It is said that the EU should improve its relations with Belarus. And why, why? Maybe, Belarus is interested in this? The main question — the one that Alexander Kozulin asked Lukashenko during his famous TV air: "Where's the money, Sasha." The case is really about the money.
European money — not as big as the ones that can give and give Russia. And Russian money easier. For the European money necessary to make reforms, Russia can give money only for the fact that Belarus is not "run away" to the West. But the Belarusian authorities need a balance to maintain its state.
Eastern Partnership — is a competitive Russian space integration. Although it is not stated directly, but all the countries of partnership in the future may become members of the EU.
But if Belarus is not necessary, there may be a question of the exclusion of Belarus from the Eastern Partnership. The Belarusian authorities must understand that they are not the most important in the world.
Anna Dyner, expert of the Polish Institute of International Affairs.
Necessary transmission system Belarusians European experience. What would have happened if the Belarusian regime collapsed now? Realistic reform program is not visible. The country is expected to serious economic problems can not be ruled surge in unemployment, as in Poland, where the rate during the worst years reached 20%.
In the EU should set up an agency that would work with the unregistered Belarusian NGOs. Should be set up a European system of care that would continue to work overseas scholars, representatives of the Belarusian research centers who, for political reasons, were forced to emigrate from the country, as, for example, the head of the sociological laboratory "Novak" Professor Andrew Vardamatski.
Belarusian Eastern European School of Political Studies — Sixteen of such institutions in other countries, these schools operate in Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania and other countries.
Each school shall annually set a minimum of 35 students from young (usually up to 35 years) leaders, scholars in the social sciences, journalists, entrepreneurs, employees, local government and public administration. The idea of schools is to open new horizons and new opportunities for young leaders, facilitating their cooperation with each other, with experts and colleagues from foreign schools.
Director of the Belarus Eastern European School of Political Studies — Alexander Dobrovolsky — Former Deputy of the USSR, member of the Supreme Council of the Republic of Belarus XIII convocation, deputy chairman of the United Civil Party (1995 — 2006).