# Predictor of disasters

14.03.2005

From St. Petersburg Alexander Zakharov created a mathematical model to predict the occurrence of various kinds of emergency situations, from fires to terrorist attacks.

Three years later he checked the calculations and found that their accuracy is not less than 95%. The researcher tried to introduce his theory, but the official agencies involved in preventing any kind of emergency, until recently, only fended off Zakharov.

Alexander became interested in the predictions of disaster more than 15 years ago. After the institute was an intern at the Kirov factory. There's some life and made Zakharova to study methods of forecasting events.

— For the last two years of work at the factory I was faced with so many different kinds of emergency, which was reluctant to collect everything that could relate to the predictions, — says Alexander. — He studied numerology, astrology, and other sciences, and in 1998 received the method of calculation. Three years I have them checked. It turned out that my model can make predictions with a probability of not less than 95%. And no other psychic and witchcraft is not here. I can teach anyone to use them. Basic Course — only 10 hours, after which a person begins to understand what's what.

The meaning of the theory Zakharova is simple: all the catastrophes occurring in the world for a reason, and in a well-defined laws. Shahid did not even blow himself up when he pleases. Bring your "belt" in the action it can only after the forces of nature will be ready to neutralize the effects of the explosion. So it turns out that all emergency situations arise precisely in those days, when nature is ready for this. This is the so-called days of "W", which is quite accurate method allows to determine Zakharov.

— Payments can be made for anything: people, houses, airplanes, or the country, — says Alexander. — Just laying in the formula data objects of interest and get a concrete timetable for his days of "W". This chart gives an overall picture, which can be transformed to "decode" in more detail. For example, to see when to expect fires, floods, terrorist attacks and. etc.

Officials fear of forecasts.

Back in June of last year Zakharov sent a letter to the FSB, which warned of a series of attacks. Alas, his predictions: the explosions of two aircraft, flying to the south, to the hostage crisis in Beslan, have come true, but none of the law enforcement agencies is still not interested. Moreover, it seems that the officials are afraid of the predictions Zakharov.

— Where am I just not addressed, all the same, — complains researcher. — For example, to make the schedule for the St. Petersburg metro, since they avoid me. And my predictions continue to come true: a day of "W" since the accident. It seems interested in developments in the administration Tuleeva. Data sent back by the end of the year with the explanations for each mine, people are not communicate. Officials do not want to know about the future troubles.

Furthermore, they do not know how to react Zakharov projections. Researcher asks: check method and give the official conclusion that they work. One such experiment at the beginning of last year did the MOE. Alexander sent them to forecasts from January to April. Each day a special employee took the attendant data. When it became clear that the real picture of events repeats graphics Zakharova, the experiment immediately stopped. Paper showing that the technique works, the researcher, of course, was not given. And without a formal opinion nowhere.

With his projections could avoid many accidents.

— Some experts agree that the graphs are correct, but to use them in their work, they can not, because the forecasts are not official — said Zakharov. — There are some who insists that unscientific methods, and then asks for them. But resentment at no one got it. I'm myself, making sure that my model is working, a long time to recover, which is to require the officials. I understand that the country is not yet ready to implement the system, but to move in this direction is necessary.

Logically, techniques Zakharova deserve close attention of specialists. With his projections could avoid many accidents. Suppose you can not prevent a methane explosion at a mine some, but it is possible to avoid loss of life — just a day "H" to suspend work in a hazardous area. Or take the aircraft. Today in Russia 20,000 aircraft, and large boards — only about 500. Are they difficult to count the dangerous periods, as well as for two thousand ocean liners? For example, when such things were to introduce the Japanese accident transport them for the year decreased by half. Have a department that before each flight calculates the plane and its crew, and U.S. Navy. There, if the prognosis is poor, the crew just did not produce on the job.

— While I'm forecasting calculation itself — continues Zakharov. — If it will make your computer will be able to cheat more options. This in turn will improve the accuracy of predictions, counting the days, "W" can be for individual homes and even apartments. Should appear and the appropriate state program, and then everyone will be able to come to the MES and order schedule days "W" for their homes.

According to the researcher, the cost of the monthly forecast for St. Petersburg is only about 10 thousand rubles. Back in 20,000 would cost the city treasury detailed transcript of graphics, which days should be prepared for serious fires, when will the flu epidemic, etc. That's just Zakharov calls as quickly as possible to implement the method in his life. In fact, according to his calculations, in the next five years, our country is plunged into a crisis that no tale to tell, nor pen describe.

Ivan Zhukov