Report of U.S. National Intelligence Estimate: Putin will have big problems

March 12 report was made public the U.S. National Intelligence on the analysis of global threats to Washington. Rapporteur, James R. Clapper, the director of department, highlighted in the text, that intelligence every day engaged in providing an interdisciplinary level of protection of life of the American people and U.S. interests around the globe.

In the midst of global threats, the report highlights first cyberthreats. According to the views of the scouts, municipal and private agents increasingly densely populated spaces for the operation of the web to achieve their strategic goals. Growing use kibervozmozhnostey actually changes behaviors, closely engendering miscalculations and misunderstandings that can lead to unpredictable reactions. Ultimately, Americans feel that they are facing new cyberthreats that have critical importance for the economic and national security of the country.

In the United States now isolated cyberthreats 2 kinds: electric and cyber espionage. Cyberattack — offensive, aimed at creating a physical impact or access to data management, their damage or removal. It also includes and operation of so-called «denial of service» and such attacks on the network, which cause physical damage and equipment failure. Electric espionage — the invasion of the network in order to obtain fundamental diplomatic, military or economic of information.

All this creates and increases risk for U.S. infrastructure.

Among the «best» actors on kiberfronte intelligence director mentions in passing Russia and China, but here also notes that these countries are unlikely to go on «so devastating coming against the United States.» Mentioned in the text, and Iran.

Meanwhile, the independent municipal or non-state agents could deploy the least sophisticated cyber attacks as a form of retaliation or provocation. These relatively targeted agents, the report says, can turn their attention to some poorly protected South American network that controls the basic vital functions, such as the creation of electricity. James R. Clapper admits that these attacks are likely already for 2-years.

Part of the report is devoted to the so-referred to as «hacktivists» (hacktivists, hackers activists). It is said that the scouts did not watch essential configuration of their abilities or intentions during the past year. Most of them uses the short-term operations, «denial of service» or closed publish personal information — that is their form of political protest. Basically, Mr. Clapper admits appearance more constructive groups aimed at systemic exposure — such as the destruction of monetary networks.

In a subsequent section of the report it comes to terrorism and transnational organized crime.

Clapper said that the terrorist danger are now in a transitional period: global jihadist movement is becoming more decentralized and more than. In addition, the «Arab Spring» has generated emission threats to South American interests. This area of ​​the threat, it may be maintained until such time as the power after the political upheaval and stabilize security forces did not return their ability to maintain order. U.S. is also facing uncertain dangers from Iran and the Lebanese «Hezbollah» who believe the United States and Israel are the main opponents.

Threatening actor is here and «Al Qaeda»: This group continues to adjust its strategy, methods and acts directed against the West. Indicates that in 2011, «Al-Qaeda» and its affiliates have played a small role in the riots in the Middle East and North Africa. However, apart from AQAP (organization operating in the Arabian Peninsula), her group could not use the action in their own interests. But the emergence of new or transitional governments in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Libya, and now the ongoing unrest in Syria and Mali, given the ability of these subsidiaries to organize attacks on South American interests. Dispersed and decentralized nature of terrorist networks make considerable danger of the United States and the West in general, and unpredictable. Here are recent examples: the attack on the 2012 South American office in Benghazi; actions in 2013 in Algeria.

Transnational organized crime scares Yankees drug trafficking. Here it is first referred to Mexico, for which it follows on the heels of Columbia. South American drug trade undermines the interests and abroad; for example, it undermines stability in West and North Africa, and remains an important source of income for the «Taliban» in Afghanistan. So says the report.

Among the serious threats referred to trafficking. President Obama shows Rapporteur, recently noted that more than 20 million sold worldwide.

Consequent danger of America is considered to build the world of weapons of mass destruction. Intelligence community focused on the dangers and destabilizing actions against the spread of nuclear weapons, frisky increasing threat of chemical and biological war (CBW) and the development of delivery systems for weapons of mass destruction. In this section, including the rest of the states that chemical and biological materials and technologies, almost always dual-use, just enter the economy.

Here as carriers threats referred to Iran and North Korea, are developing a weapon of mass destruction.

Regarding Iran spy chief South American states: Assessment, Iran could build a nuclear weapon for their own security, prestige in the international arena and regional impact. Coupled with the fact Natsrazvedka knows decide whether Iran will eventually develop nuclear weapon.

Technical Merit Iran they say that this country has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapon. You only need the political will. Especially significant successes in the uranium field in Iran has made over the past year, and it has improved its position to produce weapons-grade uranium probable (WGU). Despite this progress, scouts believe that Iran is not able to produce weapons-based WGU before this his activity will be pinpointed.

Iranian ballistic missiles capable of delivering a weapon of mass destruction. Tehran considers its Missiles as an integral part of retention strategies, and in case of need and response against the attacking forces in the region, including the South American forces.

With regard to nuclear weapons in North Korea and its missile programs, the DPRK — a serious threat to the United States for security in East Asia. Scouts believe that North Korea could start exporting nuclear technology. As recipients of «goods» referred to Iran and Syria.

Syria itself for itself — a threat. Director of the State of U.S. intelligence says that the country has an active program from chemical war (CW) and maintain appropriate state supplies of sarin, VX and other poisonous substances. States that program from CW «precipitated mode» can be used against the Syrian people. In addition, groups or individuals in Syria can get access to the components of chemical weapons. The report states that the United States and its allies are kept under control Syrian supplies chemical means.

Consequent danger of a U.S. foreign counterintelligence activities. Foreign intelligence services, along with terrorist groups, transnational criminal organizations and other non-state agents, hunt for hidden state information and receive it than undermine economic and technological advantages the U.S.. Foreigners use classical methods of espionage and innovatorskie electrical hardware, the use of which is growing at an alarming rate.

In the midst of major foreign «ugrozhentsev» created report highlights Russia and China. They — the more massive and brutal practice of economic electric espionage carried out against the United States. Confront similar foreign threats — the highest value for Natsrazvedki during the current year.

As global threats and aqua highlighted the problem. There is danger of lack of fresh water or its poor properties. North Africa, Middle East and South Asia are facing specific difficulties generated by aqua neuvvyazkami. Lack of suitable water — a way to destabilize those countries which have no controls, financial resources or technical capabilities to solve their internal problems with water. Some countries have a strong dependence on the river water; unresolved prepyadstviya here are associated with the introduction of joint water that creates conflict.

However, historically tense affairs because of the water led to a large number of agreements on water sharing, if conflicts.

Yet water scarcity and pollution disturb the functioning of the economy principal U.S. trading partners, said in the report. In some countries, water shortages are already affecting the creation of electricity and frequent droughts lasting undermine plans to increment the output of hydropower. With the configuration of these climate conditions continue to worsen.

Regarding of minerals Natsrazvedku scares «monopoly» China’s rare earth elements (REE). Specifically, they — the base for civilian and military technology of the XXI century, including the development of «green» technologies and advanced defense systems. China holds a clear monopoly on the world supply of REE (approximately 95 percent). China will also continue to dominate the production output of the rarest and most expensive REE («heavy»), which are important in the production of just defense systems.

Energy resources of the following sections of the report. Notes that oil prices will remain very sensitive to political inconstancy in the Middle East, tensions with Iran and global economic growth. This year, the scouts are predicting growth of oil production in North America and Iraq. But the delivery of some major producers are likely to stagnate or even decrease — due to a policy that pushes investment.

Noted in the report, and demographic trends that seem too spies dangers America. By 2030, world population will grow from 7.1 billion to about 8.3 billion people. Of their middle class will expand from 1 billion to 2 billion with excessive Shred urban population will grow from 50 percent to 60 percent, which will increase the already «intense» pressure on water and food resources, for minerals and energy.

Special problem scouts believe so called «mass atrocities.» As an example, given the conflicts in Darfur (Sudan) and to the east of the Congo (Kinshasa). Next on the list is worth Syria. There is indicated in the report, 10’s of thousands of civilians have been killed in the course of 2 years. Syria is exposed in the report as an example of «mass atrocities» — as a reference that the ruling despots can use force against civilian persons to maintain or assert their authority.

In another chapter of the report examines the potential dangers of U.S. regional.

It says about the next outbreak impermanence: Egypt, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Libya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Sudan and South Sudan, Somalia, Mali, Nigeria, Central African countries, China (he dedicated a special section) and North Korea. Recount briefly the analysis of threats posed by these states, does not seem likely.

Rapporteur then crosses to Russia. She dedicated section is not less than the Chinese.

U.S. spy chief said that during the current year, a democratic political system in Russia will experience a «tension.» Kremlin will have to deal with growing public discontent. Society will boil. Political system in Russia, believes Natsrazvedka experiencing any real drawback pluralism and suffers from hideous and random control and endemic corruption. Economy of — «stagnant.» All this will create Russian President Vladimir Putin big problem where huge, if those he encountered during his own 2-past presidential terms.

Notes that «castling» Medvedev — Putin has spawned the largest political protests that beheld Our homeland, since the collapse of the Russian Union. Despite these unprecedented protests Russian favorite testified that he decided to keep the existing system. After initial recognition demonstrations and offers several political reforms in the hope of dividing the opposition, the Kremlin took the base over brutal approach. He took measures to restrict the actions of the opposition: the persecution of the opposition and implementation of legislative and judicial confrontation and intimidation enemies.

Moscow’s policy in the external speaker does not see future deviations from the current rate. Putin said in the text, is sensitive to at least some of the American domestic political criticism of Russian actions: he feels them as interference in the internal affairs of Russia.

Sensitive issue for Russia is missile defense. Russian favorites careful because they think: ultimately South American «missile shield» will lead to the creation of such a system, which will enable the United States to «prune» Russian nuclear deterrence capability enemy retaliation. Russian favorites behold the South American plans for European missile defense as a serious danger to their main interests of national security. Kremlin will continue to press the United States and its NATO partners to guarantee the system is not directed against Russia.

In the Syrian issue, the report says, Our homeland may remain strong nut. The Kremlin will be on preventing military intervention, which aims to crush the Assad regime. Moscow is concerned Libyan precedent, Clapper says, and believes that the West’s policy is to overthrow regimes in order to destabilize the region, which could be used against Russia itself. Russian indicate activation of «Muslim Brotherhood» in Egypt, the terrorist attacks on American diplomats in Libya and consider it a confirmation of their own reasoning.

Moscow is unlikely to change its own diplomatic approach to Iran’s nuclear program there, indicated further. Our homeland argues that confidence-building measures — the best method to convince Iran to cooperate with the IAEA.

Despite the disagreement over missile defense, nuclear problems of Iran and applets Syrian issue, Moscow supports the military action in Afghanistan. Our homeland but suspicious of the South American plans in Afghanistan and fears of all U.S. efforts to support small military presence after 2014 without a UN mandate.

Although bilateral deal with the U.S. will remain necessary for the Russian Federation, Moscow, more probably, will focus on foreign policy on strengthening its own impact in the states of the former USSR, linking them means initiatives Asian integration: Customs alliance of Russia and Kazakhstan or Eurasian alliance proposed by Putin. (Sic).

As for the Russian Armed Forces, from the end of 2008 the Kremlin has pursued a comprehensive military reform and modernization program from. The plan, according to the South American scouts, represents a particular break with the historical approach to the Russian in a human resources, force structure and training. Now Moscow is aimed at long-term modernization and professionalization. Hinder reforms bureaucratic and cultural obstacles, together with the need to maintain military-industrial base, which worsened over the last decade.

Further, the report refers to the countries — former Soviet republics.

Georgia, on the views of Clapper, after winning elections there Ivanishvili can normalize business with Russia. However, Georgia is on the verge of political transition and therefore overestimated the risk of internal political inconstancy.

Confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan over «occupied Nagorno Karabakh region by Armenians» (sic) — another possible «flash point.»

The threat of instability exist in the Central Asian states.

In Belarus, Lukashenko companion survived the economic crisis. Corrective measures and financial assistance from Russia eased some of the more pernicious effects of this crisis. Opposition movement there ended. Yet Lukashenko scouts promise new crisis in 2013.

As for Ukraine, under President Yanukovych she views on the speaker, «drifting towards authoritarianism.» Parliamentary elections in October 2012 did not meet the far western standards of free and fair elections, which is considered the creator of the report as a step backwards from the previous Ukrainian elections. Hate Natsrazvedke and Tymoshenko’s case. In addition, the shortage of «structural economic reforms» together «with a strange cash position» on views Rapporteur, increases the risk of economic crisis in 2013.

From other states, which drew attention scouts need the brakes on Venezuela and Cuba.

After the death of Chavez’s Venezuelan government, as projected in the report, will face the consequences more and more than a deteriorating business environment and strengthening of macroeconomic instability. Debentures will eat up the lion’s share of oil revenues, even if prices remain at her highest. The country will increase crime.

Raul Castro in Cuba continue usmotritelny course of economic reforms aimed at reducing the direct role of the state in the economy, but will retain its own regime and socialism. With the death of «patron» of Hugo Chavez favorites Cuba urgently trying to attract partners for foreign investment.


Surveyed and translated Oleg Chuvakin — especially for topwar.ru

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