What are the political consequences could bring an explosion in Minsk subway? Will the authorities to respond as and 3 July 2008, when an explosion at Prospect Winners detained dozens of political activists of the opposition, and then all were released? Which foreign political forces may be beneficial to what happened at the station of October? These questions are answered political analyst Yuri Chausov.
Tsigankov: What are the political consequences can be predicted from the explosion in Minsk subway? It is the largest terrorist attack in the history of the sovereign Belarus (of course, if it is confirmed version that is attack). Which political shake it lead?
Chausov: Indeed, the version of the attack seems the most reasonable, although, of course, the necessary investigation materials to make more evidence-based evaluation. I would divide the political impact of the incident on several levels.
I think it could happen redistribution of influence within the ruling elite. And not the fact that it will be in favor of redistribution of security forces. They too have increased in recent years, power has become too dependent on them. Perhaps the role of the explosion will be similar to the role played by the explosion of 3 July 2008, when an act of terrorism has been used to eliminate a number of security forces.
Tsigankov: If you have remembered July 3, can we say that the government can respond in the same way as it was then — detaining dozens of political activists? They are, however, all released, and the perpetrators have not found until now.
ChausovI would have remembered the bombings in 2005 in Vitebsk. Like an explosion on July 3, they were accompanied by, we can say rampant, mass arrests of opposition. Therefore, we can assume that, regardless of the increase or decrease security officials, the procedure is the reaction to the attack and implementation of investigative activities will be similar — not rational. Otherwise they simply do not know how, our security agencies.
TsigankovQ: Can I now do political implications of how foreign forces may be needed this explosion?
Chausov: Honestly, just this explosion of foreign forces can be beneficial. It is not a secret that such actions are usually associated with the Russian vector in politics. That is to say, Russia's "grand style" of political struggle. It was there that blow up the house on the eve of the election campaigns.
On the other hand, perhaps a different design events. The explosion on July 3 was the reason for the dismissal Shejman, got into bed reconciliation with the West. Possible, and the result of the explosion in the subway can be a demonstrative removal of the security forces, which are responsible for the suppression of post-election protests, which in combination with light sentences or release of political prisoners could open the way for a dialogue with the Belarusian regime to the West.