Formally, the National Bank keeps the previous binding of the Belarusian ruble against the major currencies. But in reality acts mnozhnasts rates, and banks are moving to contract work with clients. Buy dollars or euros at exchange points is not possible, the dollar exchange rate of non-cash transactions exceeded 4,000 rubles.
More and more experts agree that the causes of persistent desire of the authorities to keep the ruble should be sought in the political arena. Even a 10 percent devaluation again makes unrealistic promised a salary of $ 500. In this case, it at least about 30 to 40 per cent devaluation of the national currency. And, according to a doctor of economic sciences, Professor Gennady Lych, this can only delay the inevitable:
"For a smart person here everything is clear. 'Cause I think that the devaluation will be carried out from anywhere authorities did not disappear …".
"And what if the authorities are waiting for? Logically, you had at least a month ago announcing the devaluation …".
"And waiting is clear that — if the main boss will give the command" face. "And even when promised, but obviously impossible task to bring the salary up to $ 500 he will have no alternative. Present situation objectively is that there is simply no other option. Perhaps when Russia will give money, hold out a bit more, but then again, will that indefinite period of "X".
Despite the financial state of near collapse, the National Bank to continue declares that everything remains under control. The official exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar remains at around 3,046 rubles in banks — 3111. But such currency at exchange rate of no more than a month. On the interbank market is considered good luck when the dollar sold for 4,400 rubles. There is evidence that in some cases dealers list items already on double rate — more than 6000 rubles.
Experts say that in this case the application of the "control of the situation" look exaggeration. Deprived of the opportunity to maneuver, the banks essentially entered into a kind of cartel. The Central Bank makes its subordinate agencies to sell the currency to the population, but none of it does not even think. Moreover, banks have virtually declared the devaluation, entering contractual rates. For example, the repayment of foreign currency loans can be made in rubles, but not at the official rate, but in terms of — of up to 3,800 rubles.
Expert Belarusian Economic Research and Education Center Catherine Barnukova says that such steps indicate one thing: the devaluation process started without the consent of the authorities:
"In a sense, the process of control, but on the other hand, it is actually
the first steps toward devaluation. The fact that banks impose so-called treaty course, it really is a market and a fair rate of the Belarusian ruble. Of course, this situation is very bad in the first place so that the uncertainty in the market and mnozhnasts courses hurting the real economy much more than devaluation. So devaluation is needed and is not very clear what is expected of power. After all, Russian loans also will not solve the problem at its root. Even if they last for six months, it is not clear what to do After those six months, when we find ourselves in the same situation again. That is, the problem should be solved more radical way, and not try it all the time to delay. "
According to the financial analyst Ekaterina Smirnova, the situation can be saved only by radical transformation. Otherwise, even the salvation of the devaluation will not be as difficult times come, and for the public sector, which is tied to imports, but does not have a currency to acquire components for the production of:
"With regard to the devaluation, it may be has placed everything in its place in a short term. So are the people who, say, want to exchange half their salaries in dollars and thus would provide some reserves, probably would not do that. As for not even a long-term perspective, and even within one year, it would not solve anything at all. Cash market accounts for only 3% of the country's currency market, so even in the case of satisfaction with the presence of demand does not solve the problem of the remaining 97%. "
The uncertainty in the financial sector has caused paralysis of other sectors of activity. So, actually frozen transactions in the property market. Without the free convertibility of the sale of houses and flats has become impossible — all the operations in this area are traditionally carried out in dollars. Determine the prices in dollars too, has not taken — especially due to the fact that it is unknown to what course to tie the calculations.