First is the question of the United States. This is the only country, whose ambitions are of planetary scale. NATO and other allies of the State (as, for example, Israel, South Korea, Australia, etc.) and 737 military bases around the world (2007) — Impact of Washington covers the entire Earth. In regard to the United States, on the first plan out a strategy dominoes.
The second will be considered by the state Our homeland: it defends its position in the near abroad and can rely on a few friendly countries in Asia and Latin America. Its strategy can be compared to a game of chess.
In the end, we must not forget about China. This new player just starting to set their pieces on the board. Stones from the first.
This article is not in front of you to hold a thorough analysis of global geopolitics. It all just makes it easier to understand the behavior of 3 of these states on the example.
Domino and the U.S.
This game is relatively ordinary, she has only one exact rule to force the largest number of dominoes to fall, causing a blow to a weak knuckles that drag away for an own neighbors. All fallen dominoes number of wins. The goal — to get all the dominoes and so makarom be an absolute winner.
All the same, the player can wait and several nasty surprises.
• There is a knuckle, which can not be touched directly. In the unlikely event all of the dominoes will fall and all players lose.
• If badly hit count, dominoes will start to fall in the wrong direction, and player spendest a lot of effort for the sake of miserable results.
• Do not let the fallen dominoes up. This can happen if the player is very engrossed in another area of the party.
In other words, USA put in front of him to force the puzzle whole world to follow their economic and political model thanks to globalization and the justification of the spread of "Western democracy".
Trumps the U.S. dollar, the army with ultramodern equipment, all-knowing and sprutoobraznaya diplomacy, media and the support of the vast control over cyberspace.
Feeble the U.S.: huge debts, the lack of prospects for economic growth, the strategic failure in Iraq and the Middle East, the growth impact of the BRIC countries.
After the collapse of the Union of Russian, many countries have moved to the South American camp. First, there should be noted Central Europe, the former Soviet republics (the Baltic states and Georgia), and Côte d'Ivoire and Libya. In addition, the sights are a lot of other countries. First, it concerns countries rich in raw materials. In this regard, the brain comes Iran, Middle East, Algeria, Angola, Venezuela and Africa.
The U.S. strategy, apparently, is to get control over the creation of raw materials, and transportation corridors, which also serves as the inventory pressure on China and Russia.
Every time the U.S. used part or a complete set of trump cards in order to achieve their goals.
The obstacles that they will encounter in the past or that they could not escape.
• Direct collision with Russia should be avoided at any cost. Given the current state of helplessness army, the Russian Federation has no choice other candidates apart from an early use of the nuclear arsenal, which means the mutual destruction of enemies (even if there will be a favorite, he was mortally wounded). For this reason, the United States try to achieve the set goals in other ways: the policy environment of the Russian Federation, the neutralization of its nuclear arsenal with a missile defense system or even verbovanie Moscow in their own camp. At the moment we are talking about a reddish faster reload button.
• Some initiatives were poorly prepared and did not give the expected results. Knuckle Iraq and Afghanistan did not fall in the direction of want. In Iraq, democratic elections brought to power by the Shiite majority that supports the faster the Iranian enemy, while in Afghanistan, NATO troops are in geographically isolated region and surrounded by aggressive states. Conduct combat actions they can only longish and expensive supply chain. The situation is only slightly resembles the French position in Vietnam's Dien Bien Phu. In the U.S., were not prepared for such a long war, which caused a severe blow to their budget. They did not wait on their own opponents and similar adaptability. Asymmetric warfare, suicide bombings, improvised explosive devices ….
• Excessive concentration on the hard nuts such as Iran and Iraq, and the lack of financial resources to enhance the results achieved in some cases, and led to the regression. This applies to most of Latin America, Ukraine, Lebanon, … all of which are further away from the United States.
U.S. and especially their armed forces do not want to lose or even share its world leadership. At the moment, the new looms, mainly relying on allies approach that President Obama presented during the election campaign.
France acts in Côte d'Ivoire, France and England are at war in Libya, Turkey, apparently, will soon appear in Syria, and in the end all stand together against Iran.
In addition, European countries need to prepare for the of strongest pressure for a significant increase in their military budgets in the coming years to protect the interests of its South American ally. Europeans will have to choose «butter oder kanonen», guns or butter.
Chess and Our homeland
In this case, refers to the much more challenging game. Its aim is to topple the enemy king, until the enemy has put to you checkmate.
A few important rules.
• You can play multiple simultaneous games. The strongest player is fighting with many opponents on several boards, which increases the chances of achieving the result.
• The game will not necessarily be the favorite. Even if your position is left much to be desired a lot of the best, the party can still bring in a draw, creating a stalemate or having achieved a threefold repetition of the 1st turn.
• When you go on the defensive, the smallest mistake can lead to the defeat of the party.
As a result, made in the 1990s, the strategic mistakes Our home was on the defensive, and with virtually no chance to beat your own primary opponent, the United States, unless, of course, he did not allow a hard boner.
Our homeland enjoys started to interfere in the neighboring countries for the creation of defensive lines in their own "fiefdom." It is a question of the first countries of the former Soviet Union and the Arctic. Syria also looks reasonable trial lunge, which can allow the RF to get a naval base in the Mediterranean. But it should be remembered that the passage of warships of the Black Sea through the Turkish Straits is determined by the Montreux Convention, which forbids him for several types of vessels, such as, for example, aircraft carriers.
Military alliances with distant countries also are on the agenda forward to. Sale of tools does the government client, not an ally.
Before the Russian in real time task is to bu
y time for economic recovery and the country's armed forces. At the moment it comes into the top-10 of strongest economies in the world and intends to climb to fifth place by 2017. In the Army began the process of modernization. Soon the military will have a new tool, for example, the helicopter "Mistral" aircraft "Sukhoi T-50" missile systems S-400 and S-500 class submarines "Northwind", and strategic missile "Topol" and "Bulava". We should not forget that the GLONASS satellite navigation system was developed initially for the army. In addition, it should be noted, and new directions in real time ongoing research work, such as mind-boggling watery armor on the practical application of which is still only speculate.
Our homeland is not intended to create a frisky response forces outside near abroad. So, for example, there are no plans to build new aircraft carriers before 2020, or open military bases in remote parts of the world.
Our home can count on a number of friendly countries in Asia and Latin America, Syria, Vietnam, Venezuela, Nicaragua …
Rules that should be our home.
• In the confrontation with the United States that adhere to the strategy of coming immediately to several players, Our homeland is betting on the depletion of U.S. forces.
• Our homeland trying to get out of a nasty situation by consolidating its own zone of influence and the rate on the formation of a multipolar world in which the United States will become palpable weight less.
• For a long period of recuperation Our home is on a feeble defensive positions and to adopt new conquest of the NATO side, if those affected by its strategic zone.
Trumps Russia: terrifying arsenal, large supplies of raw materials, unimportant debt, cash reserves of more than 500 billion dollars, the military-industrial complex, a significant potential for economic and industrial development.
Feeble hand of the Russian Federation: the dependence on commodity prices, inherited from the period of Russian reflexes, as for example, low productivity, corruption and parallel markets, also organized by the oligarchy capital flight.
In the President's chair very soon again be experienced player Vladimir Putin which will change very malleable (in dialogue with the West), Dmitry Medvedev, who has passed the position on many issues. It is a question of Libya, Iran sanctions and refusal to implement it S-300 missile system, NATO, etc.
All this leads to the idea of future tensions in relations with NATO at a time when Europeans are stronger than ever in need of Russian gas.
Go and China
Task of the game is in the balance of pebbles at the intersection of the lines Gobana (board with razlinovkoy 19 to 19 lines) for the greatest number of stones surrounding the enemy and prevent their own environment. In other words, some passages are used for defense, and some for coming.
It's hard to play with the best by ordinary rules.
• The uninitiated or novice player can not understand the real purpose of placing stones. This starts to become clear only at regular intervals during the party, but then avoid encirclement is already very late.
• Favorite — the one who manages to isolate the largest number of stones opponent. The loser in turn, also captures the captives, but at the least.
Then we could hide behind the lack of deep understanding of China and its nedavneshnego naikrupneyshey approval as an economic power, so turn away from the analysis of its strategy. Yet, there are many components, which can rely on.
Chinese — a civilization of traders, not conquerors. Since the creation of the People's Republic of all wars took place inside its borders (in Aksai Chin in 1962 and Xinjiang in 1968 due to inherited from the colonial era border disputes), or else resulted in a punitive expedition against Vietnam in 1979.
From what we understand about the Chinese military program that can come to the conclusion that the Chinese navy does not intend to plow the seas on the planet. Total of 3 aircraft carriers for this exact enough.
At the same time, research in the field of anti-ballistic missiles indicate that China is going to make a threat to its coastline held by U.S. aircraft carriers.
As our motherland, China spirited pace makes up for the lag in service with high quality. Aircraft fifth generation J 20, the construction of aircraft carriers, submarines assembly of all types and the satellite navigation system "Beidou" are the main features of the modernization process.
• China puts the figure around the world. He is confident that his strategy will not bring of success everywhere. Yet it is difficult to find out which countries will be in his camp. All of this will depend on the arrangement of figures and the United States. Here you can name a few possible candidates. Iran, Pakistan and Central Asia — these countries are making significant investments in China and might be happy to change their own patron saint today at least more closely associated with Israel Beijing. It is also necessary to note a few African countries where barter to build infrastructure in exchange for raw materials, appear to have been successful.
• Possible U.S. retreat in South Asia can be considered to have success. The emergence of allies in Central Asia, in the midst of the Arab countries and in Africa would be a real triumph.
China Trumps: cash reserves of more than three trillion dollars, an unusual growth and style candidacy USA.
Feeble from China: with military backlog, critical dependence on imports of raw materials, the threat of separation remote provinces such as Xinjiang or Tibet, the fact that the United States realized that the main contender for their leadership position is China.
China is uniformly expanding its naval activity in the area a large part of the Indian Ocean in the criteria of the competition with the United States.
China's expansion in the rest of the planet will be limited to the business.
Expected confrontation China and the U.S. in the Arabian Peninsula and Africa, is the first time will, no doubt, emerged in favor of the United States.
If Iran will avoid a war, it certainly will be on the side of China.
The overall conclusion
Whatever the chosen game, it's safe to say that the world is entering a period of terrible changes that await us in the coming decades. In addition, develops a feeling that those who have effective armed forces will not hesitate to use them as an argument in the absence of other means of persuasion.
In the future, it is entirely possible that the BRIC countries are all often stand on common positions in the face of the "international community," the South American bloc.
Finally wish to paraphrase incorrectly attributed to André Malraux sentence: I think XXI will be multipolar and tolerant, or not at all.
As for the spiritual, will have to wait XXII century.