"At the press conference, Nixon said that he is not a liar. Clinton said in court that had no relationship with the sexy lady. Prior to the invasion of Iraq, Bush said that he understood where the weapon of mass destruction. As it seems to me , South American presidents, these very pochetaemye people might just win at least some in the international competition of liars. "- Richard Gere
Yesterday the head of the Pentagon warned Iran against any attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is an important communication to the export of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.
In an interview with the South American television Panetta said that it would be below the limit at which Washington will not tolerate, reports BBC BBC.
As you know, Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in the event of the imposition of sanctions on oil exports because of its nuclear programs from.
In turn, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. Army General Martin Dempsey acknowledged that Iran has the ability to carry out their own risk, but the United States has enough resources to offset such move.
The radicalization of Iran's behavior was a result of sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU's readiness to ban the purchase of Iranian oil because of Iran's nuclear applets.
This situation resembles an inverted chart of U.S. actions in respect of the Land of the Rising Sun in the spring of 1941. Then Roosevelt pushing through a ban on the sale of oil to the Land of the Rising Sun, which is due to the island status was in critical dependence on imported fuel. Japan was at war in China, and was dependent on the supply of raw materials from Korea, which was its colony since 1919, because the overlap of the import of fuel has put it before the fact of defeat on the mainland troops Chai Kai-shek.
Japan could act within the framework of the strategic reserve, which 8 month old was in store fuel. After the embargo, the war in the Pacific was imminent and Roosevelt is well aware. He pushed the Japanese to the war, as it was necessary breathless from depression majestically USA. With the economic potential is 20 times superior to Japanese and protected from enemy attacks economy Roosevelt proved himself a brilliant strategist, as such, the course, apart from the rest, carrying another advantage — in the event of an attack the Land of the Rising Sun America looked like a victim, which gave a strong moral foundation. This is a broker in the upcoming mobilize people to participate in the fighting in Europe and the Pacific. As you know, before the Yankees were strong isolationist sentiment and Roosevelt was a constant battle with Congress which did not want to draw the United States into World War II.
So Makar, putting the enemy in advance unprofitable position headed for Roosevelt from his actions, which were strategically profitable in the U.S. and brought them coming in the top league of world politics.
Who will analyze the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. As Roosevelt In 1941, Obama now has a strategic advantage and is able to impose that Iran or any other game.
In order to understand a few numbers:
Iran ranks second only to Saudi Arabia in the middle of the level of OPEC oil production 3.59 million barrels a day.
80% of exports are mineral resources, with all this in their busy producing only 1% of the population.
In 2008, about 55% of the budget funds received from the export of oil and natural gas.
So Makar, the behavior of the Iranian elite is determined by several factors.
Oil provides the main inflow of foreign exchange. The government subsidizes many sectors of the industry and pay billions of dollars for social programs from without petrodollars it would simply not able to do what eto.Hot lowering social benefits destabilize the political situation in the country as an unlimited number of unemployed young people. Unemployment is around 14% among young people around 30%. Government has already forced went to minimize social benefits, which angered naseleniya.V top of a struggle between the secular and modernizing wing headed by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and clerical — led to the stately Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This struggle is resolved in the parliamentary elections in March (!) This year. So Makar, the cost of this or another political step in Iran at the moment the most high.
Americans perfectly understand this and after stirring up the situation radicalize the political agenda in Iran. They understand that the sanctions weaken the position of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and make the possibility of destabilizing the country, which will give a chance to change the political regime in Tehran at a priklnny.
In addition, in the event of civil unrest Israel and the Arab satellite could strike Iran's nuclear facilities and kill them as it did with Iraq in 1981. In this case, the Iranian management will be diverted to domestic objectives and, consequently, its ability to retaliate will be reduced.
Naturally, in Tehran understand these dangers, so are on the verge of foul play. With all this war for Ahmadinejad is completely acceptable, as in this case, it can be a massive mobiliziruschim factor which will allow to throw social tension and redirect the attention of the people on the outside enemy.
From this point of view, entirely logical for Tehran will not only be limited to operations to block the Strait of Hormuz, and the destabilization of Iraq as a Shiite, in order to make the field of tensions along the Arab allies of the United States and in their ability to destabilize them. This will allow young people to take part of the war, in the medium term will reduce the demographic pressure on the authorities.
Yank it perfectly, as they try to deal with Iran through their own Arab allies and Israel (which, in general, perfectly understands that Iran — is not Libya, and even Syria). By the way, you know that just this week the U.S. sold its Arab allies guns on 36000000000. Bucks!
With all of this must be realize, that the purpose of the Yankees, as with Roosevelt in 1941 are outside the local conflict. If Roosevelt's war with Japan was seen as the last step, legalizing claim to global hegemony, for Obama to war Iran is a course aimed at maintaining the position of leader in the criteria for the growing conflict with China. Specifically, China and the wider Asian region are the main victims of destabilization in the Gulf.
China buys 11% of Iran's oil imports and disruptions in its supply can play a critical role in its economy, which can not lose the pace of growth due to the danger of social destabilization. China may fall in civil strife as it was more than once in its history.
In this article it is impossible to reveal all aspects of the disposition of the opposing forces — the U.S. and China, it will be made in a subsequent article, "Iran's casus belli: Why the Gulf War is inevitable," but from the above it follows that a large regional war in the Middle East is becoming more What possible.
War just fits into the agenda of the United States, where the bow and languid election situation in the economy, and the agenda of Iran, where elections and languid economic situation. If you have the
motivation, means it will find its own way out in the respective actions.
My prediction: The main points will be Jan. 30, when the EU will decide on sanctions and the March elections in Iran. This gap is likely to escalate the conflict and begin.
Scheduled for the end of February the Iranian Navy exercises in the Persian Gulf might be a trigger in the recent regional war that would entail a global impact.