What could be the political consequences of the explosion?


Members: a former KGB lieutenant colonel Valery Kostka and political columnist for "Belarusians and Market" Pavljuk Bykovskii.

Valery Kostka

Pavljuk Bykovskii

Valery Karbalevich

Political action?

Valery Karbalevich"If an explosion of 4 July 2008 the police have qualified as" hooliganism ", the current explosion of investigation under" terrorist act. " Judging by the power of the explosion, it seems that it committed professionals. It is hard to imagine that it could do some mentally ill people. The place and time are chosen so that there is a maximum number of victims — that is, to cause great public interest. This encourages the idea that the goals of the explosion — political. Do you agree with this opinion? . "

Valery Kostka"Under the Criminal Code, the attack — is especially dangerous crime against the state. Therefore, it is always a politically motivated action. But the motives and objectives of the crime will be known after some time.

Of course, the explosion made by professionals. Alone make it hard. There are organizers or customers, there are people who have made an explosive taken place. "

Pavljuk Bykovskii"There are political consequences of the explosion. But this political campaign? Need to wait for the results of the investigation. Terrorist attack always influences politics has political objectives. Usually after a terrorist attack or force the people who committed it, make statements that explain what they require. In this case we do not have. "

Who will benefit?

Karbalevich"While the criminals are found, no one has claimed responsibility for the blast. But all build different versions. We put the question another way: who benefits? Who would benefit from this tragedy? . "

Bykovskii"I want to see that the one who benefits is not always the culprit. In an authoritarian state after such events wins power. After all, for the safety of people agree to limit freedom.

That is not looking where lost, and where the light.

Here's the first bell — a search of the newspaper "Nasha Niva". That is not looking where lost, and where the light. Our law enforcement agencies are used to search for criminals there. It is hard to imagine that among the opposition, which is dedicated to good intelligence, could have survived the radical groups are able to act of terrorism. "

Karbalevich"But, on the other hand, an explosion destroys the myth of stability. A stability — is the main ideological foundation of power. Therefore hardly won power? . "

Bone"So, the attack deals a blow to the government, undermining its credibility. There is a question about the professionalism of the security services, which are intended to prevent such actions.

But the temporary positive effect on the power of the explosion can get. First of all, it provides a basis for restrictions on political freedoms, the attack on the opposition and civil society. Then, it diverts attention from other, for example — economic, problems.

But it gives a temporary effect. By and large, the attack in one country does not give a positive result to any party. We have to wait and see whether the fear in the community, which will make the power, find the perpetrators. Then it becomes more clear who benefits from it. "

The base for an attack on the opposition?

Karbalevich"The experience of previous investigations of such crimes shows that the first law enforcement agencies looking for criminals among the opposition. Because they are focused primarily on the fight against political opponents of the regime. But what now? With whom will now declared Lukashenko "sweep"?

Guards, that the first one to come to the KGB, was the newspaper "Nasha Niva". Surprising Announcement of the General Prosecutor's Office, which alerts the media about the so-called "irresponsible publication." Instead of searching for criminals prosecutors began to fight with the media. A pro-governmental "political analyst" Musienko said the cause of the explosion was the liberalism of the government in relation to the opposition. So begins the new "witch hunt"? "

Bykovskii"This is the easiest way for services dealing with issues of national security. But it is inefficient. A majority of society can not believe in the theory that it has made opposition. Will switch focus from economic issues to security issues. Now the authorities can be manipulated by social thought for the sake of their goals. "

KGB must be freed from the task of political investigation. Let it is committed, for which it was created, that is, the protection of national security.

Bone"Look at those organizational skills, which found opposition in the presidential election, it is not able to do so. In addition, it is under the control of the security services. So look for criminals among the opposition — fighting windmills. But the authorities can use to blast pressure on the opposition or the media to finish those remaining after December 19.

During my service in the KGB 18 years ago after such incidents dismiss the big bosses. Let's see whether punished KGB Chairman, Head of Minsk and Minsk region. "

Karbalevich"After the explosion, July 4, 2008 Lukashenka dismissed the Security Council Secretary Viktor Sheiman. The current explosion is more tragic. It has caused great public interest. It is reasonable to expect that the resignation will now. "

Bykovskii"The amazing thing is that the explosion of 4 July 2008 was classified as" hooliganism "and investigated by the police. Now blast qualified as a terrorist act, but the investigation of the Prosecutor's Office, and the KGB only attached to it. Meanwhile, the law places the responsibility for national security in the KGB. "

Karbalevich"The KGB is no time. He fights with the opposition, and not with the terrorists. "

Bone"Much has been said that the KGB should be relieved of the tasks of political investigation. Let it is committed, for which it was created, that is, the protection of national security. And really it does not have time to deal with acts of terrorism. "


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