While in the Middle East and North Africa are trying to lose weight long-term authoritarian regimes in the former Soviet Union reigns "deafening" silence, says columnist site The Global Post, David L. Stern.
Many experts doubt that the protests will spread to the north, given the passivity of the population and its distrust of the democratic process, with one side, cruelty and authoritarian governments — on the other. There is also a view that "the seeds of discontent is already there, you just have to wait," the author writes.
However, at the moment democracy movements in the former Soviet Union did not allow even arise, he said. Lukashenko "almost crushed in their home country anti-government sentiment after, reached a very dubious victory presidential election. "Azerbaijani authorities on the weekend before last dispersed small unsanctioned rally in Baku, zbivshy demonstrators and arresting dozens of people. Kazakhstan Nazarbayev won the election with 95% of votes in the 90-percent turnout, with the OSCE observers noted" serious violations. "
"But do Nazarbayev and other repressive regimes of the former republics of the USSR are immune to the desire for change?" — Ask the author. According to him, Kazakhstan suffers from many of the very diseases that brought people into the streets of Cairo, Tunis, Sana'a and Damascus. "In Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Armenia, not to mention Russia, the situation is even more pronounced. Corruption has reached epidemic proportions. Much of the country's wealth into the pockets of a handful of oligarchs (which, according to some claims, owned by members of the" first family "). Hospitals, schools and other sotsuslugi remain neglected. At the press wearing a muzzle, and a young educated middle class do not allow the political process," — says the article.
However, most experts are predicting mass uprisings. In the past decade in the former republics of the USSR had their revolution. "The fact that many of them generally do not meet expectations, leading many people in the region to look at the people's protest movements with suspicion and cynicism" — the author writes. In addition, opposition groups are ineffective — either because of their own inability, or as a result of persecution by the authorities. "And if the demonstration will reach a critical mass, the power to break up its most ruthless methods" — the author writes, recalling the shooting of demonstrators in Andijan in 2005.
But other experts say that forbidding facade of the regime — perhaps an illusion. "The objective reality of poverty, repression and corruption dictates that one day people will demand change." Eric McGlinchey, of George Mason University (USA) said that the uncertainty surrounding the followers of nursing leaders in Central Asia generates instability, which can vyplyuhnutstsa on the street. "Nazarbayev and Karimov needs a clear line of succession, or Puig happen, and sooner rather than later," — he said. As shown Egipet, Tunisia and Libya, the leaders of this type seem to be omnipotent almost up to the moment when they lose power.