Society members: economist Leonid Zlotnikov and columnist for "The Belarusians and Market" Vladimir Tarasov.
There will be two exchange rates
Valery Karbalevich"Alexander Lukashenko promised for a few days or weeks," stabilize the situation "in the foreign exchange market. From anonymous sources released information that during the meeting with the president last week decided to move on to the two exchange rates. One — the official who is determined administratively, and the second — a market that will be formed on the alternative trading session of the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange. What is the meaning of this decision? What problem does it unleashes? . "
Leonid Zlotnikov"At the auction will be more" fair "rate for this segment of the market. After all, if each bank separately making the deal with the buyer, we get a large range of courses. And then there is already some kind of order. "
Vladimir Tarasov"Two courses should help the authorities to keep the prices. Part of the currency will be bought at a low rate of National Bank. So do not be so quick to raise prices for gas, medicine.
In addition, the National Bank seeks way to rescue commercial banks from losses. Because a lot of companies take foreign currency loans from banks, and the goods sold in the domestic market for rubles. And in the case of devaluation, they lose the opportunity to buy rubles at the old rate. And therefore will not be able to return the foreign currency loans to banks. As a result, banks will deteriorate performance, there will be bankruptcy.
In the OTC market, there were no clear rules. Each bank negotiated with the individual customer. It was uncomfortable for both parties to the transaction, even though banks and could generate more revenue. A common stock trades allow us to understand, to identify a single price. Moreover, this price is lower than the one on which banks are now selling the currency. Now she comes up to 5-6 thousand rubles per dollar. And on the stock exchange is expected that the course will be at the level of 3700-3800 rubles per dollar.
Why government does not decide to go to the official devaluation?
Karbalevich"What is happening in the foreign exchange market, economists estimate as the de facto devaluation. Why not make this the devaluation of the official, legal, high-grade? It seems that the negative consequences that the authorities were afraid of the devaluation has already come. The people scared. What can we be afraid? . "
Zlotnikau"The authorities are trying to maintain a low exchange rate for strategic imports and to state-owned enterprises and banks to roll over its foreign loans. On Jan. 1, 2011 Short-term debt was $ 12 billion. This is the one that must be repaid mostly this year. In addition, Lukashenko promised that devaluation will not. And so it is trying to save face. "
Tarasov"Devaluation — a tool that affects the entire economy. And the presence of two courses separates good businesses from bad. It seems that the president has this idea that there is a normal business, which is engaged in the production, export. And apart from that there is still almost a parasite, importers who use the currency. So you need to create different conditions for these subjects. A limit imports through import tariffs can not, because it is contrary to the agreements with trading partners. "
What are the prospects for overcoming the currency crisis?
Karbalevich"And what are the prospects for overcoming the currency crisis? How long will survive the current situation? Whether the authorities will soon return to a single track? We can assume that when you see the Russian loan, everything will return to normal again, the situation will return to the state that existed before the crisis? . "
Zlotnikau"The measures that have done authorities on the foreign exchange market will worsen the economic situation. After all, they constrain the inflow of foreign exchange in the form of investments and loans. Neither Russia nor the IMF did not have much desire to support a country that does not want to move to a market economy. It takes a lot of currency (over $ 1 billion per month) in order to repay loans, offset the negative balance of payments, and at the same time fulfill the grandiose plans for this five-year period. In this intermediate state can not last long. "
Karbalevich"In fact, this scheme, which now come up with the government and the National Bank, is seen as temporary. But she did not unleash any problem of shortage of currency in exchange, nor the problem of attracting foreign investment, nor the problem of economic liberalization, which has recently been much discussed. "
Tarasov"The prospects are not the best. After all, our government wrongly assess the causes of the crisis. They see the reason in some temporary reasons: rising energy prices, the growth in demand for cars.
And in fact, the fundamental cause of the crisis lies in the fact that for the production of the final product has to import a lot of intermediate goods. Due to this growth is the foreign trade deficit. "
Karbalevich"You're saying that they do not understand. But populist statements to the public advocacy function is performed. Maybe it does not mean that they do not really understand? . "
Tarasov"The last performance Lukashenko at a meeting on April 15 leaves no such hopes. He was amazed at the paradoxical situation. Like, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 11%, and the currency is not enough. But at current prices for imports and exports will be more than the GDP growth, the less the country will pay. "
Zlotnikau: "The main cause of the crisis — is the low efficiency of the economy and the desire to live beyond their means. Consumption by 13-15% higher than the capacity of the economy. And this life is not ensured by means of foreign loans. Now the external support has decreased. Currency revenue was less, and the demand for foreign currency increased. Such "scissors" and caused a currency crisis. And in order to unleash it, you need to bring consumption in line with the possibilities. "