Enemies of the Belarusian economy: price shocks, panic and bad weather

Society
During his address, Alexander Lukashenko called external and internal factors that have led to an acute financial crisis in the state. On the one hand, this global crisis, price shocks and rising prices for oil, gas and metals, on the other — the panic on the food and the foreign exchange market, the outflow of currency to buy cars, negligence of local officials and bad weather. And on the proposals of individual members of the government to let go of the Belarusian ruble Lukashenko responded categorically: such a government we do not need.

In his speech, the president acknowledged, Belarus consumes a lot more than can be sold, so a negative foreign trade balance reached a "formidable dimensions":

"Revenue from the export of manufactured products does not cover domestic demand for foreign currency. Largely situation is caused by external factors: the rise in prices of oil, natural gas prices jumped significantly to the metal, other raw materials and resources. And money from our products, we sell, not enough to pay for the resources consumed. As a result — high trade deficit with low inflows of foreign capital. certain role in the economic situation also played a significant outflow of currency to buy people cars and other imported goods abroad. These and other factors have led to the fact that today foreign trade imbalance becomes rampant. This one of the most tender points of our economy and one of the reasons for the difficult situation on the foreign exchange market. "

Competitor Alexander Lukashenko in the election race, the economist Victor Tereshchenko says that the whole structure of the economy in the current chapter of Belarus was based on Soviet patterns. So Mr. Tereshchenko surprising: what other effects expected from Lukashenko zaadministravanay farming system, which he imposed on the country?

Victor Tereshchenko

"For the sake of healing is not done nothing. I believe that Lukashenko never manages processes, especially in recent times. Simply ruined the state, although it continues to fall apart. And the fact that he is somewhere to come and all the" build ", then, sorry, nothing joyful in this for anybody not. Also, there is now the head of the government, not the head of the National Bank. void, otherwise I can not! who sits in power? boys. Some Head, a student yesterday, Losers, today in that an industry manages the processes in the state. These are the students and dakiravalisya. Hence, the fall in real incomes. We, Belarusians, silent, as they say, reasonable people. But one day we will say, assholes, down from the fifth floor, to see what going on here! And it will relate to any official, and even the country's leader. finish to what will be a blast! ".

Alexander Lukashenko also criticized the "too soft" monetary policy of the state, which finally led to chaos: people getting bank loans or other income in rubles, and tried to convert them amyartsvits — rather than further put into circulation:

"We are indifferent to the use of currency coming into the country. Its implementation should be directed to vysokaefektyvnyh, profitable projects, the expansion of production vysokarentabelnyh. Failure to comply with the requirements of simple causes that to maintain a stable exchange rate of the ruble bank must spend foreign exchange reserves, which negates the" do not "All government efforts to build up their capacity in previous years. So far we have carried out a very loose monetary policy. lend and businesses, and the public. But at the same time people had a certain mass of superfluous money rubles. abnayavvalasya After all of the loans, and this affected in the domestic foreign exchange market. People went to buy the currency. And you saw what came of it. "

Economist Sergei Balykin believes that resentment at the head of the country's people are groundless. On He said, power for fifteen years and has not been able to convince the public of the reliability of the Belarusian currency, and the recent developments in financial markets have only strengthened suspicions — you can not trust the ruble. Therefore, in his opinion, the wait reciprocity in stabilizing the situation, do not:

Sergei Balykin

"It is theoretically possible that Belarus to release any loans and the money accumulates. But this scenario is not for our country. Been to another country, it is quite possible that there would be financial instruments, government bonds, and the people who trust the state, would lend her money. But not in this case, because our people more confidence in American money. Somehow I said that Lukashenko and Prokopovych — the most pro-American policy in Belarus. They condemn U.S. imperialism, but no one else has raised their rating of the U.S. currency in the eyes of the Belarusian people. So do not rule out that there will be devaluation, the more that it is actually already happened, if you look at the prices on the part of the market that is not regulated by the state — the so-called black, gray market. devaluation took place there — and, incidentally, much stronger than it would otherwise take place if the state controlled and if it would actually let go of the dollar. "

While the authorities are trying to hide the rapid depreciation of the national currency, the market is doing its job. According to the official exchange rate of the ruble no operations are carried out. And if entrepreneurs in the markets with the recalculated rate razbezhkay 3500-3800 rubles per dollar, a number of entities have officially announced that the basis of a rate of 5,000 rubles per dollar. OTC trades that should define "adequate course of" the Belarusian ruble, the National Bank has promised to spend the next week.

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