April 19 National Bank allowed the market rate of the Belarusian ruble in transactions between entities, but it had no effect on the situation with the existing currency. Currency exchange offices are still there, and the people at greatest risk zvyazvayuchysya with money changers. Meanwhile, experts believe that the actual legalization of multiple exchange rates will lead to a dangerous chain reaction — a sharp rise in inflation, slowing the rate of growth of gross domestic product and, consequently, reduce the standard of living of the population.
It is expected that next week the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange will hold a tender for the alternative definition of "adequate" market rate depreciated (as is obvious) of the national currency.
Thus on the spot currency market, this measure does not apply, which means that the government is actually legalized mnozhnasts courses. State financial experts say that despite the excessive demand for foreign currency had to apply control measures in the domestic market in order to ensure the preservation of international reserves. In particular, the National Bank stopped selling currency exchange offices, banks and official exchange rate could not exceed more than 10%.
Director of the Research Center "Institute for Privatization and Management", PhD Igor Pelipas said about the negative effects of multiple exchange rates:
"Yesterday we held a special seminar to foresee the development of the Belarusian economy for 2011-2012. And just all of these issues were discussed — regarding multiple exchange rates, etc. Our position voiced quite clearly, a lot of predictions about the negative consequences of such a multiplicity of courses such a measure is considered from the point of impact on the trade balance and so on. "
According to experts, the objective of the ruble's exchange rate to the dollar may exceed the official 20-30%, which means it is a razbezhku will lay the importers in the cost of production, which they will deliver to Belarus. Thus, the declared "stability" will have to pay directly to consumers. This will inevitably lead to higher inflation. In particular, analysts predict IPM Center: in This year, inflation will reach 17% at the projected 7.5%. In turn, the record inflation reduce the rate of GDP — an increase of 3.5% against the planned 9%. This chain reaction will be the logical result of the slowdown in economic growth and, consequently, adrezanue the living standards of the population.
In fact, many experts believe that the recognition of the necessity of devaluation — the most scary prospect for the Belarusian authorities, although it is inevitable. In such a case, have reportedly reached goal — to 500-dollar average salary of Belarusians — again becomes unattainable. Meanwhile, experts are convinced Belarusian Economic Research Center BEROC Catherine Barnukova, the situation has reached such a limit that even politically authorities devaluation is beneficial:
"I understand that people take the devaluation of the negative. But do not think that even in a political sense, the situation that is emerging at the moment, more profitable. Even if a person receives $ 500, it just can not buy certain products because of their is not there. This time, and secondly, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the inability to import largely blocks the production of many. When this situation will soon begin to stop some plants, and people will be forced to lay off, or at least correct on indefinite leave. Therefore, in political terms, this situation is not favorable, and will continue to become even more unfavorable compared to the devaluation. That's surprising is acute failure of the authorities to devalue, because at the moment it makes sense to have both politically and economically. "
Meanwhile National Bank has foreign exchange rates for April 21 — 3055 rubles per $ 1. The best course of buying and selling dollars at banks lined — 3135 rubles. But for such a course money can only pass, currency dealers also take dollars from people in much better conditions — 3500-3600 rubles. However, the risk of becoming an accomplice of illegal operations is as high.