These and other questions are answered by the political scientist Yuri Chausov and editor in chief of the magazine "Arche" Valery Bulgakov.
"I was in this speech, Lukashenko was surprised such a general helplessness of the head of state"
Tsigankov: Let's first state the general impression of the presentation today of Alexander Lukashenko. Did he have any signs or messages of strategic Belarusian president is more responsive to the specific political situation?
Chausov: I was in this speech, Lukashenko was surprised such a general helplessness of the head of state. For the first time there is nothing to say Lukashenko to the Belarusian people. No strategic approach was suggested — it was not stated nor preservation of the old course and the new course.
At a time when society is maturing sense of crisis, a feeling that something is going on (line at exchangers, food shortage) is a "no" it would have made sense if it was based on some sort of quiet confidence leader, broadcast confidence reliance. But just this confidence Lukashenko's speech was seen. Thus, the general lack of clear message superimposed on the uncertainty of what was heard in the words of the Belarusian president.
Tsigankov: We did actually did not say anything about the currency crisis. At the very least, those who expected to hear some concrete answers were clearly frustrated. Why Lukashenko chose this option — or because it has no positive solutions, or it is a sensitive issue that Lukashenko decided to just bypass it?
Chausov: The economic component of Lukashenko's speech was very unclear. The only thing that can be said that the policy of "grassroots economic liberalization" will be sustained, private business on a small level — that is what is accepted by the state. But in the rest of the economic bloc in the speech was a set of contradictory and used stamps from the administration to reduce the duty reduction thesis inspections of businesses. A lot of creativity, there was no such "raisins" in the speech.
Lukashenko has nothing to say on the exchange rate, so he says, to increase the role of agriculture.
"Very foundations of Lukashenko model placed under the sign of demand"
Bulgakov: The message is to reduce, to temper public expectations for improved welfare. The main idea of the speech is the observation that Belarus has entered into a deep systemic crisis, and we can not expect an easy way out of it soon. I was very struck by the words Lukashenko that the housing program will be adjusted and that the rate of 15 square meters per person is a "disgrace."
Translated into normal language this means that Belarus tightens belt, and spending such amounts of public money to build, as it was a few years ago, will be gone. This is only one of the samples the total figure. A sense of crisis, that the very foundations of Lukashenko model placed under the sign of demand, was present in the whole spectrum of applications president.
Belarus is now actually closer to the exhaustion of the ideological framework of Lukashenko's model. We have systemic instability in the economy, fever in the foreign exchange market and the explosion in the subway. To all this, Lukashenko was forced to react. It seems that he did not try to explain it by another witch hunt. Certainly, the theme of the "fifth column" to be present, but it seems that in this speech, she did not carry out such a role useabsyazhnay. This could mean that the Belarusian regime, trying to escape, sutsishvae confrontational rhetoric and will bet again on zaigryvanne with Western financial and political institutions.
Tsigankov: Indeed, during a speech at the Lukashenko sounded conciliatory notes about Europe. "We are not going over the fence to look at the Europeans," "our relationship to take time out, but it will not last long." What explains these notes, you can do with today's speech conclusions about what will be in the future the Belarusian foreign policy?
ChausovI would not rate this as a conciliatory notes. Rather, it is lack of confidence in the correctness of the course, which was elected on 19 December, when Belarus found itself in a situation of cessation of dialogue with the West and bright split within the country. I think that Lukashenka's speech, we can see such a simplistic understanding of what, according to Lukashenko, is a political process. This means the pressure on the opposition and resistance, respectively, to pressure from the West. Between these lines and is a political laviravanne Belarusian leader.
It seems to me that waiting ambulance thaw, reduce political repression — a sign of this speech was not. On the contrary, it was more focused on the protection of elected policy-making, not the designation of any new emphasis in public policy. Lukashenko, in fact, did not give the command "face", but it is unlikely to be taken as a sign of readiness for reconciliation in Belarusian society.
"There is too much more to freeze the Belarusian political and media field"
Tsigankov: Is there any meaning of the words of the Belarusian head of what excessive democracy has led to the tragic events of April 11 that Belarus will face new freeze in the political sphere?
Bulgakov: No way to freeze the Belarusian political and media field. Is fire remains publicly on the areas of the opposition or refer them en masse in a concentration camp somewhere in bear areas. In fact, the last months of treatment after December 19 passed all their previous ideas about the scope of their own internal political struggle and cleaned the internal political field with great initiative and enthusiasm.
But despite the escalation of force, this system is the first kind of monolithic, pragapila, pravochyla group of terrorists, who will present the so-called "ordinary Belarusians." Therefore, the most simple, but on the other — a cynical and went to model an explanation of what happened on April 11 — is to sweep away the responsibility of the opposition.
Returning to him, I would say so — there's nowhere to smooth out, and as a rational policy, saying these words, Lukashenko primarily argues that he will continue to set the rules. They may vary depending on the situation, but the authoritarian model of development — it is the sacred cow, the revision of which is out of the question for the coming days.
"Feeling Lukashenko fact that its policy from it no longer depends on the fate"
Chausov: I would not agree with Valery that Lukashenko really trying to position itself appropriately as the entity that determines the rules of the ga
me. On the contrary, it is a politician who realizes that he is no longer master of his own political fate, it policy, which is not subject, and the subject policy. And this was the result of a political decision, which was adopted on December 19 Lukashenko forceful resolution of the political problem.
All the rest — it's tinsel, which is to hide nyavpenenasts and a sense of power and the fact that from him his political fate no longer depends