The Belarusian government promises to "stabilize the situation" in the currency market in the next few days. Meanwhile, experts are convinced that in a deep financial crisis, which turned out to Belarus, no stabilization would not be possible without the devaluation of the national currency. Will such a step senior management?
April 16 Alexander Lukashenko said that in the crisis situation in the financial sector, and then adrezanavala in the consumer market, primarily to blame themselves Belarusians:
"People have created a situation. What was to rush to the exchangers? You pulled out a huge amount of currency and finance from the banks at all, when they started to take deposits, etc. I can not give you these contributions? Do not have enough currency to banks started to use gold reserves. then see that it is in general can lead to serious, unpleasant consequences. issue I have forbidden foreign exchange reserves. Who now offended?
Next. Well, why rushed to buy this sugar, hear? Okay, you have created a home depot in the kitchen under a hundred pounds of sugar. But in the garage! He also dampen, what do you do with that sugar? Now you have bought a huge amount and amyartsvili currency. You did not listen to me, the Lord is with you, it's your choice. Destabilized the foreign exchange market, destabilized the food … . "
The Belarusian government hopes to stabilize the situation, due to, among other things, the Russian loan of $ 1 billion. Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin expressed hope that negotiations could be completed within a month, but it will depend on the nature of cooperation and possible misunderstandings during the consultations. However, Herman Gref, Chairman of the Board "Sberbank of Russia", which owns one of the largest in Belarus, "Belpromstroibank" believes that Minsk should not rely only on external borrowing. He expressed the view that it would be wiser to Belarus to devalue — with the increase in the trade deficit and a significant reduction in international reserves.
Comments on the situation economist Sergei Balykin:
"Lukashenko dumps on the people — are to blame for the country have created a headache. But who actually made all of these problems? Mr. Lukashenko himself and his team. Indeed, to make the figures on wages, on the other parameters, he threw a lot in the Belarusian economy Belarusian rubles. And if too much of the national currency, of course, they put pressure on prices, put pressure on the exchange rate. Humans have income — and, quite naturally, rushed them to invest: Who in new cars, those in sugar, who is in dollars and euros, at the other.
Therefore fully responsible Lukashenko and his government — his ill-conceived financial policies, only populist. Now that extra money you need Belarusian mass balance with foreign money. Therefore, if Gref said that the devaluation is inevitable, and Lukashenko — he in a few days will bring order in the foreign exchange market, it does not exclude one another. The devaluation is inevitable, the only question is how it will be madeand — at one time or continuously. Or, it may be even worse scenario than devaluation. "
Experts note that Belarus was already a gray market of cash and non-cash currency exchange rate than the official 30-50%. But even at that price to buy dollars or euros problematic. One the leaders of the movement of entrepreneurs Alexander Taustyka says that this is the best reflection of the general situation in the financial sector: while the authorities think, the market reacts to all the processes of their own:
"Of course, that was installed in exchange rate devalued, that, accordingly, the people would have understood the situation, it is not from us, from entrepreneurs is that it allegedly overcharged us a digital course. They would see that there is a currency in exchange for 3600 and, realizing the situation, that everyone should live, most likely, the goods we would buy. However, in view of their salaries as people would restrict themselves to something. But in this sense the situation is, of course, would have calmed down. "
Reporter: "There have been reports that the car market listed at all for 6000 rubles per dollar. Or is it an exaggeration? ".
"Most likely, this is an exaggeration, because at that time we started to list on 3500, they comforted themselves with the thought that nothing happens: a day or two, and everything will be normalized. And now they are ahead of us realized that by 4000 it is necessary to enumerate, as the driving season begins. lot of people want to go to the country, to leave Minsk and to live in a peaceful atmosphere. So people need to repair a car to pass inspection. Accordingly, the demand for auto parts, because without inspection is not zaedesh. "
From sources in government reach information that the government and the National Bank may legalize the "shadow" exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble, which has evolved into a shortage of foreign currency. Like, the market rate will be formed on the alternative trading session of the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange.
However, experts say that the absurdity of such steps as the exchange rate to be determined by one and the ratio of supply and demand.