November 29, 2011 5:35
In New York completed the "Singularity Summit", which were the leading Western futurologists. First among the speakers were scientists from Russia
We want changes
The summit focused on the singularity. We will understand — it is. Recently, more and more futurologists predict: that in the very near future, humanity is waiting for such an incredible breakthrough in the development of civilization, which will change our lives beyond recognition. Even the promise of a new offensive "posthuman" era. That will bring a new era — even the present difficult. Back in 1993, American mathematician and science fiction writer Vernon Vinge, in his report on the VISION-21 Symposium, held the Space Research Centre at NASA's Lewis and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, attempted to outline the future:
— Today we are on the verge of change comparable to the appearance of man on earth. Fervent reason for these changes is the fact that the development of technology will inevitably lead to the creation of an entity with intelligence greater than human … and then changes that were thought to require "thousands of centuries" will likely happen in the next hundred years. It was appropriate to call this event a singularity. This is the point where our old models will have to drop, where reigns the new reality.
According to science fiction, there are four possible options for achieving the "technological singularity." They are essentially similar to the methods of artificial intelligence, which is described in the science fiction novels for half a century.
1.Kompyutery will find "consciousness", and there will be a superhuman intelligence.
2.Krupnye computer networks (and their combined users) can "see themselves" as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
3.Svyaz between machine and man will be so tight that the intelligence people can reasonably be considered superhuman.
4. Bioengineering and Nanotechnology will artificially increase human intelligence.
When mankind reaches a "point of singularity"? Host of the current New yrkskogo Summit — the world famous futurist Ray Kurzweil has no doubt that it will happen in 2045. Moreover, the coming technological revolution will be the most rapidly of all before we know.
And there is every reason to believe that his prophecy will come true. The fact that Kurzweil — unusually smart. It is compared with Thomas Addison Total inventions and award such epithets as "thinking machines" and "gushing genius." He is also famous for its many predictions that come true. For example, long before the events he predicted the appearance in the 1980 World Wide Web WWW, linking together the 100 million computers, computer victory over world chess champion in 1996 and decoding the DNA in the 2000s. Now he sees a change in the world.
— Today discoveries in astrophysics, high energy physics, nanotechnology happen almost every month, and as long as the scientific community manages to spread new knowledge on the shelves — confessed in his speech at the summit Kurzweil. — But come the day when the highest and minds will be powerless to explain what is happening around, even theoretically. The volume of our knowledge is growing exponentially, and over the next 30-35 years, people simply can not be learned all that will offer him a science.
In 2045 should occur "singular points" where even narrow specialists in various fields will cease to understand the speed and complexity of technological progress. There will be technology that dramatically change the very concept of our world and the universe. A machine intelligence will grow billions of times the combined intelligence of all people. If there is fundamentally different from the human mind, the future of civilization will be impossible to predict, because based on human logic becomes meaningless.
But what about the man himself on the planet after it ceases to keep up with technological advances by their own? Exit the scientist sees the replacement of artificial biological body.
— In any case we have to change to be a match for the machines, possibly by increasing their expense our own intelligence — offers a futurologist. — Biotechnology will enable us at the molecular level to change their bodies and the world. And the human genome will be one of the computer programs to be tested and optimized and, if necessary alteration. And when he changed so dramatically, it will curb their biological nature and become virtually immortal.
A basis for the creation of cyborgs will … Russia.
FROM surrogates to the avatar
For the first time in this year's summit was attended by representatives from Russia. One of them — the initiator of the Strategic social movement "Russia 2045" and corporations "Immortality" Dmitry Itskov. In the motion included prominent specialists in the field of artificial organs, bionic systems and systems in place for the exchange of information between the brain and the electronic device. Most scientists — from the institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences. On his ambitious plans — with the help of high technology to make people practically immortal by 2045 — Dmitry told "Komsomolskaya Pravda" in April 2011 (see the "KP" here). And now shared their projects with futurologists around the world.
— We offer a completely new approach to the problem of achieving immortality humanity — told delegates Itskov. — The first project under the name "Avatar" is aimed at creating a robot — a copy of the person controlling via "brain — the computer", as in the film "Surrogates" with Bruce Willis. In this fantasy action film people got into the capsule, put on a helmet with sensors and strength of nerve impulses run your android — with full presence. Prototype "Surrogates" should appear in 2015. In 2020, an artificial body will be publicly available and easy to operate, such as cars. In parallel experiments go to transplant the brain — first in animals, then in terminal patients. Then you should see the first commercial copy of an artificial body with a living brain inside. In 2030 it is planned to create an artificial brain. And in 2035 — its combination with an artificial body. And we still have a dream project for 2040 — 2045 years — is to create a hologram of the body, which can be projected anywhere in the world and which will be transferred to consciousness.
According Itskova, create avatars help in emergency workers, firefighters, police officers. Avatars will replace the fragile human body in space industry. Avatar can even perform representative functions — business trips, to sign treaties. And his constituents will no doubt be used to help people with disabilities. And when scientists create artificial intelligence, artificial brain and take a completely artificial body of a person, then get a unique creature — superman with superpowers.
— Do not believe those who say that the creation of an artificial brain, and the transference of consciousness into an artificial medium impossible — called Dmitry. — And nuclear power once seemed impossible, and space travel — far-fetched. But no self-respecting scientist can say with confidence that in 5-10 years there will be opening idea and will not make the impossible possible. It's a matter of time. We plan to transform our movement into the world, which we call "Neochelovechestvo 2045". With the help of the government or without it, but either way we will open a dedicated center in Russia, and it will develop technologies cybernetic immortality of man. For the first time in the world.
What else to dream of scientists?
Will live in a floating city
Innovative Entrepreneur 44-year old billionaire Peter Thiel is known for the fact that he first noticed the project "Facebook" and invested in it. Now he develops the project of floating ocean city — to create a small independent state.
— It is floating in the ocean, incorporated city needs to generate new ideas for the usual, "land" governments — persuaded the rostrum Thiel. — Floating self-governing republic, the disposal of which — 70% of the planet's surface — can create their own laws and act as incubators for technological and policy innovation.
Nanobots will live inside our bodies
Professor, Institute of Rice James Maklarkin spoke on "The Future of Robotics — in swarms. Why Thousands of robots are better than one? "Professor brought to the stage a swarm of small cubes of robots, who made incredible maneuvers. According to him, they can be regarded as a distant analog future nanobots in the body.
Stem cells will be saved from an incurable disease
Deputy Director, Institute for Regenerative Medicine named McGowan (McGowan Institute for Regenerative Medicine — MIRM) Stephen Badilak spoke about the prospects of using stem cells to restore the internal organs in cancer patients.
150-year-People change the world
Futurist writer and political analyst Sonia Harrison presented his book "One Hundred Plus". In it she outlined a future in which human achievement 150 years to change everything: business, family relationships, politics, religion. And protects the longevity of his critics, arguing that it will be a place to live and what to do.
Starships to conquer the universe
Two U.S. agencies — the defense and scientific DARPA NASA — are working to create the first in history of interstellar spacecraft. Start starship assigned to 2111. According to the Director of DARPA Tactical Technology David Neyland, during the implementation of this project will have to be a scientist "to find answers to questions that even today it is not clear how to ask."