In anticipation of the end of the world, or piquant flavor transience of life

November 1, 2011 17:08

Life is short?

In the last few years (the number is likely to approximately equal to 10) a certain part of society concerned about certain psychological stress due to the expectation of the "end of the world."

This voltage is fed expertly rogue-prophets, ancient prophecies, which somehow relies implicitly trusted, and many newer, almost today, myths — about the black hole, which will create the Large Hadron Collider, the planet Nibiru, the imminent arrival of hostile aliens (from just found out?) about the crash involving strange matter, and so forth — and hordes of hungry no matter what fame writing.

This creates an emotional atmosphere in which products are sold construction firms, for erecting a particularly active rich bunkers seekers whose owners hope, if anything, to have time to run and hide from the general sad fate. If it really helps them to live, as they say, God help them.

But what to do with this voltage is easier for people who do not have the money to buy such expensive sedative pills like bunker with a reserve life support for 100 years?

Apocalypse to choose

In the Soviet school I was taught that the "end of the world" — was invented by priests, obscurantist, serving the interests of our enemies. Then it suffices. My generation, though not lived up to communism, but has lived more or less peacefully. Now it is not enough. Now everyone, even got bolonizirovannoe secondary education, it is clear that the "end of the world" — not fiction, it could really happen on a scientific level, we can talk about his possible scenarios and the likelihood of this scenario.

All of these issues, for example, devoted a great book remarkable science fiction writer (and at the same time — a serious scientist and biochemist) of the twentieth century, Isaac Asimov's "Choice of catastrophes," in which he examines various scenarios and their probabilities from the death of the universe to turn the Earth into a place unfit for human habitation. But beyond it the question remains — when? Can occur when the "end of the world"?

Oddly enough, it was in this year, it became clear that his real "end of the world", we might have slept — he would come back in 1883. In 2011, someone pulled the light almost forgotten observations Mexican astronomer Jose Bonilla made on 12 and 13 August 1883. He observed a striking phenomenon: about 450 objects held in front of the Sun. And each of them was surrounded by some fog. Bonilla published a report on the observations in the journal L'Astronomie in 1886.

They were so amazing, that the editor of the journal found that Bonilla saw insects and dust. Otherwise treated them astronomers today. It is, perhaps, to remind the reader that in 1883 there was already a photo of the scientific method of observation and for Mexico it was already quite common: Bonilla was able to take a picture of objects passing in front of the Sun and included it in his report.

Hector Manterola at the National Autonomous University of Mexico and his colleagues believe that Bonilla must have seen just the broken fragments of the comet. This explains the "fog", and a plurality of objects, and the fact that they were so close to each other.

Using data submitted by Bonilla, Mexican astronomers were able to assess how much the fragments disintegrated comet and how close it was from Earth. The results were frightening: fragments was about 3300, their diameter from 50 to 800 km, and they were at a distance of 600 to 8000 km. That is, almost literally a comet crashed into the Earth. The size of each fragment — not less known to all the "Tunguska meteorite", and together they could easily arrange the world end of the world.

And anybody about anything like that did not even know. If it happened, it would happen very quickly and understand what is happening almost no one would be able to. So it would be and not scary and it does not hurt.

Supervolcanoes

This may sound strange, but sometimes it turns out that the physics of the universe is known to us is better than the physics of our own planet, and its threats may be completely unknown to man. Here is a quote from the site "Encyclopedia of Security", "Gregory Ruskin published in 2003 an article entitled" The ocean eruptions caused by methane, and mass extinctions, "which examines the hypothesis that the cause of many mass extinctions were violations of the metastable state of dissolved gases primarily of methane. The release of energy with 10,000 times the energy of all nuclear arsenals in the world. "

This is not a speculative assumption. An example of this kind of accident is not so long ago was sudden degassing of Lake Nyos in Cameroon, which in 1986 claimed the lives of 1,700 people. Ruskin said that the question of what is the situation with the accumulation of dissolved gases in the modern oceans, requires further research.

But degassing can be local and global, and supervolcanoes — it is always global. Have no supervolcano crater, no cone. He has a caldera — a cover of the lava, covering a huge mouth with tens of kilometers in diameter. Such monsters in the world just a few. One of them, the largest, called the Yellowstone National Park, United States. And it is about him, there is some concern that he will not be silent for so long.

Media reports that the U.S. Geological Survey predicted awakening supervolcano no earlier than 25,000 years. But on the basis of the data should a disaster waiting around 2075. However, according to the American seismological stations, things are moving much faster.

It is impossible to prevent this disaster. Therefore, the White House is preparing for the worst. CIA analysts believed that "the disaster die two-thirds of the population, the economy will be destroyed, disrupted transportation and communication."

As for working with the public, then power it considers it inappropriate, what will be, will be. Perhaps long-term winter quite like nuclear, which resulted in the world will die overwhelming majority of all living things. That's where the bunker and useful. To someone who does.

Theorem on the end of the world

However, the laws of human extinction is associated with complex and subtle, although seemingly simple (and possibly non-simple) to understand the moments, such as the theorem of the world. It has a lot — sometimes incompatible — the wording in the absence of agreement between the scientists investigate it. It has the status of a scientific hypothesis, dedicated to her work published in leading scientific journals, and is neither an apocalyptic fantasy or pseudoscience.

Theorem related to the so-called principle of Copernicus, formulating our plausible and quite obvious place in the universe. According to this principle, accidentally taken an observer present during the flow of a process, most likely, there is not at the very beginning and not at the end, but somewhere in the middle, and he himself lives in the world is not the first and not the last day and so on — all of it mediocre. It is quite obvious and quite correct.

The problem is that, knowing the last time the object's existence, to give a probabilistic estimate of how long it will last another — provided that we are seeing it in a random moment of existence.

Attention is drawn to the multiplicity of interpretations of the phrase "at a random moment of existence." Choosing among them — it is a problem which science? Semantics? Semiotics? Philosophy? Well, of course, not physics or mathematics. So we come to the realization that the problem of "end of the world", despite its apparent simplicity and accessibility, is actually a complex cross-cutting issue. And it is unclear whether there is a simple answer. Therefore, reference to the "exact date", like the predictions 12/21/2012 — is a direct indication of their fraudulent.

Et cetera, et cetera …

Of course, there is also a lot of "ends" resulted from activity of the person, it is predictable and controllable (and most — not controlled), more worthy of the name of the collective suicide than the "end of the world." On them we can not mention, but that's another topic in another context.

Valery Tyrnov

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