November 13, 2011 23:30
Modern technology now allows forensic scientists to calculate the probability of the time and place of the crime. Through the use of high-tech technology and the fundamentals of mathematical analysis in the U.S. city of Memphis, the number of crimes began to decline sharply. In the future, we are waiting for the laser scanning, radio frequency identification and implanted chips.
If science is able to predict earthquakes and tsunamis, as well as any other natural disaster, why not use the gadgets to prevent crime. With this statement in principle agrees Professor Eugene Spodarev (Evgeny Spodarev) from the University of Ulm (Germany). According to Internet resource Welt-online, the director of the Institute for stochastic processes teaches there and applied statistics in cooperation with the Bavarian Land criminal investigation (LKA) directs the pilot project "Statistical space-time analysis of crime data."
Its purpose, according to the statement Okona Gunter (Gunter Okon) of the Munich branch of LKA, is the "identification of structures, patterns and unknown relationships with large volumes of information." Thus, having data on criminal behavior and suspicious accidents, and analyze this information, you can confidently predict trends and the development of future criminal behavior. Mathematical modeling includes "a lot of statistical methods and models in which the data are compiled from existing models to forecast," according to his page "Die Welt".
Simply put, it is a response to questions: When and where will the next crime and from whom in the future, we can expect. Frankly, the first such statement is alarming — it was too obviously smells like science fiction. As we remember, in the thriller Steven Spielberg's "Minority Report» (Minority Report) employees of crime prevention Precrime reduced to zero the number of serious crimes. If not mistaken, the duration of the popular movie was relegated to the distant for us in 2054. Yet a look at the calendar of today. I assure you, any sayensfikshn just resting!
Look into the future of modern forensics can with a kind of mathematics predictions — Predictive Analytics. Predictive analytics has been used successfully in the financial services, insurance and retail trade, tourism, telecommunications and healthcare. Why would it not serve in solving crimes? Fundamentals predict crimes were laid outstanding mathematicians XIX century, among others, and the German mathematician Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss (1777-1855). Improved in the 1990s, in 2007 they were successfully applied in practice.
British corporation BBC developed an interactive map for the police in Oxford. Thanks to this map now you can find out what time and which days of the week are the most common offenses, such as vandalism or illegal parking.
Related software produced by IBM, became the police of Memphis (Tennessee). This allowed her to easily identify the places that are likely to be expected of the crime. According to the information received, these "hot spots" with the police patrol cars arrived not long after, and not even to the denouement of the crime, but before it was committed.
In 2005, launched the operation to reduce the number of crimes involving statistics Blue C. rush (Criminal Reduction Utilising Statistical History) with the use of maps in real time, which the police Memphis developed in collaboration with the local university. The average annual cost of the project is 395 249 dollars. Meanwhile, the average annual benefit from the use of (directly and indirectly) of more than $ 7 million, said resource civsourceonline.com. As a result of the measures taken, it was noted that since 2006 the number of street crimes has decreased by over 31 percent. The situation is similar in California, Florida and Canada.
RFID, which is used with the 1960's, however, only recently made here to stay. For example, in reading a bar code on products. The information obtained from the use of RFID systems to track citizens, released on bail pending trial. They write that this bracelet was put on WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.
It is likely that the criminal world is also to answer some technical innovations gimmick. By type of caller ID-anti-ANI (automatic number identification and its opposite). But while this is something for the future, but the information on the hot spot, so called thieves raspberries, and their inhabitants, it is necessary to collect old "old-fashioned" methods — introduction agency.