October 9, 2012 21:37
The most famous futurist and inventor of the world have made their predictions for the next hundred years, having met in Yekaterinburg.
Scientists have predicted this, in that it is impossible to believe.
Do you believe that in 20 years in the human body will run mini-robots, a kind of "doctors", smaller than a blood cell? And the fact that almost any thing can be sent by e-mail and print on the other end of the network to the 3-D printer? Well, say, a blouse, or even a complex musical instrument?
And the fact that in 10 years the Chinese "do" of all, becoming the main generators of new technologies in the world, far ahead of the U.S. and Japan? And the fact that the whole Earth in 2050 will turn into a giant computer? With barely fit in the head? But it is 40 years ago, no one imagined that any current boy with dirty heels, but with an electronic gadget in hand somewhere in a remote African province will have a million times more information power than the rulers of the United States and the Soviet Union combined. Analysts seriously believed that the personal computer will be absolutely no need for everyone, and the depth of sales is the strength of the 5 pieces in the world. Today, their implementation in the hundreds of millions.
This is not fiction — it's our life today. But what will happen to the planet and all of us in the future? The most famous futurist and inventor of the world have made their predictions for the next century, meeting in Yekaterinburg in the international industrial exhibition "Innoprom." What are they — read the details in today's article "SD".
We are already "open" Stradivarius violin
Ray Kurzweil, the world-renowned inventor, holder 19 doctoral degrees, people who once predicted the advent of the Internet:
— Do not over 100, and has 20 years the future will be based on math, not minerals. In mathematics Russia holds leading positions. About 50 years ago, when I was a student I was reading the works of Russian scientists. Especially Andrei Markov — the famous mathematician of the 19th century. Then, in the 1980s and '90s, I used his technique of language recognition systems. It is called — a Markov model. Turns out, it works fine! In general, the technology of the cerebral cortex — a kind of mathematical equivalent of what opened Markov.
Sometimes I say, what are you, clairvoyant? How do you predict what will happen in the future? The question I asked myself and myself 30 years ago. Yes, on the one hand wisdom says that the future can not be predicted. But if you identify technology trends, as did your Markov, we find many fantastic discoveries of the future become visible at a glance. Today in the world of technology are evolving so rapidly that it seems incredible. Just think, at the time it took mankind 400 years to learn how to use the printing press. Telephone "earned" much faster: it took only 50 years to use it all — and the Americans and the Europeans. For mass launch mobile took 7 years, social networking — only 3-4 years. But Facebook and Twitter have gained a global audience in a couple of years. Acceleration Law return in action.
And if you look ahead at least for a few years, then surely we will see that blogs and social networks are already history. We live in exciting times: we see how the world is changed because of our eyes. The computer that I used 50-60 years ago when I was a student, was almost a million times more expensive, and a million times less efficient. Why there was such rapid growth? The thing is that the technologies do not develop linearly but exponentially. That's the secret of my "clairvoyance." Linear — it is like to imagine that the animal is moving at a certain speed, and we are down to the minute can imagine where it will appear at some point in time. In a move exponentially operates entirely different principle: it is desired to double up. We think that's all any will do 30 steps, 30 years old, it's so small, but each step — a 2, 4, 16, and, finally, on the 30th step we reach a billion. This fantastic trend reflects the current development of computer technology. When Martin Cooper invented the mobile phone, you had to be insanely rich to become the owner of the machine. Now mobile 6 billion worldwide. And a small child in Africa is now more information than of the U.S. and the Soviet Union 50 years ago. This is a very powerful thing. What is important, very powerful democratizing technology. Each new level of technology today is a thousand times higher than the previous. Look at how many types of wireless communication in recent starts.
What was moving a project to study the human genome, you know? It started in 1998, halfway through the allotted time for research, 7-8 years, scientists have deciphered only 1% of the information — it seemed that everything's risen, received a measly one percent of the information. But according to the principle of doubling the information obtained on the basis of traffic exponentially, the project completed a year before the end of studies. Now we know about the genes, if not all, the incredible amount.
Each gene — a small program. Let's say there is a kind of gene "refrigerator" — the one that is responsible for the accumulation of fat in the body. He needed a man in the distant historical times. After all, hunting was not always good, and fat reserves was vital. Today, hunting is not necessary. And consequently, the gene "refrigerator" is not needed. It can be "off" if you want. And experiment on how to disable this "refrigerator" in animal already being held. In other words, the DNA and the genes can function as a computer program. And this process is moving exponentially, which portends a lot of amazing discoveries.
It is estimated that the number of Web information doubles every 13 months. If you look at a line graph, starting from the 1990s, it seems, from where it came from — all of these incredible discoveries in the field of electronic technology. But if you go and look at the exhibitor, everything becomes easy to understand. Once we were able to send an email to a piece of music, and it seemed to us hardly any wonder. But today, with 3-D printer, we can "print" a real violin. And not just as a clone of a Stradivarius violin. Scientists have already done it. And tends to get quite good quality, the violin is played by professional musicians — were quite happy, though, and prefer a more "old-fashioned" tools. So, this way you can replicate any complex system — electronic, mechanical. Note the spatial resolution of the printer increases around 100 times every 10 years. This means that in 20 years we will be able to print and complex biological materials. For example, clothing made of natural fabrics. Say, a blouse or dress. This technology is evolving at an unprecedented pace. We are in front of this fantastic storm. The world of physical things evolve.
And in medicine is expected revolution. Already conducted mass experiments on animals, when introduced into the body mini-robot. In size it is smaller than a blood cell. These technologies will lead to the fact that our immune system, which is now experiencing so much suffering to be able to get real help. This technology will be a panacea for so many kinds of diseases. By the way, your Russian mathematician Mark this rapid development of technology envisioned in the 19th century at the level of models. Mathematics — a great thing! Based on the Markov models, it can be predicted that with the help of artificial intelligence, you can create a whole new reality. In 1998, the computer won the first game of chess against Kasparov became world champion. But it seemed to us, the computer will never be able to "tell" stories, to understand irony, joke answer outright. This is a very thin category. But here and beat the computer in the two best players in the world, he "butchered" their just three seconds to read the entire Wikipedia and being able to easily fend off a joke on the joke. You will see that in 15 years in front of us will open even more perfect, wonderful world.
The company changed the world
Guy Kawasaki one of the ideologists of Apple, a friend and colleague of Steve Jobs:
— Steve was a great predictor and a great personality, but, unfortunately, he had recently left us … His innovation has always proceeded from the main thing — how to make the world a more pleasant place to live. How ever different Apple smart head around asserted: iPhone you do not succeed, iPods, aypad — too. But this is a typical practice: to predict the future, and most importantly — do it yourself, you need to have a special gift. And not everyone, even the most eminent scientist is given. Thomas Watson in 1943 said: "I think that the depth of the market for computers will be only 5 pieces in the world." Today, at my house 5 "Macs." They are not in the world — they are in my apartment! Want a second example? "Western Union" at the time to an internal memorandum on the phone. They said, this device too many shortcomings to be people started using it as a means of communication. Experts said that no personal computer just does not want to have a home, because "it makes no sense." How wrong they were! You have to understand, innovation, ideas will succeed. If someone says no, never, it is not possible, you should not believe them. This is the first lesson I learned, working and talking with Steve.
The second lesson from Steve: your client will never be able to say what he wants — be it coming. People can not express it themselves. The genius of innovation lies in the fact that to create what will people need. From which they will be ecstatic.
Here's an example: at the end of the 19th century, there was an entire industry, which collected ice. In cold areas, cut the ice into blocks and transported. Then came the next step: to open a factory, where frozen water. This could be done in any city. It was a technological breakthrough. Finally, stage 3: the appearance of this refrigerator. That is "factory" is already in your home. Feel each new stage — is a fundamentally different level, not improved by some 15-20%.
More from Steve, I learned that the greatest difficulties just leads to the very good result. When I came into the division of Mac, we had to achieve world domination. Do not just make Apple 2, and make it so that we have leadership over IBM, on this "monster", and by becoming the first in the world. We invited them to compete on our terms. Welcome back! We were incredibly difficult, but we were the first.
What I understood from Steve yet? Here, for example, a laptop, it's so delicate and beautiful. It would seem that the design is not so much can affect a person's choice. But in fact it is very important. Design results in a very strong difference — this is important!
Another lesson learned from Steve. It is the ability change your mind. If you change your mind, it does not mean that you are stupid — it means that you can rethink the data and make a different decision. A classic example of Apple. When Steve worked on the iPhone, he revised twice their original settings. And basically, there was a turn of 180 degrees. And the experts say, "Steve, you're right, you're so smart."
Another rule of a successful company: the players 'A' class players hire class "A-plus." That is your excellent workers hired more than workers. When bad hire workers, and they employ more bad, very quickly you find yourself surrounded by workers class "E", and this is what we call the "explosion boobies." This company runs the risk of easily slide to the bottom.
And it is important also that the real leaders of companies — are the people who can show to the public a product that it produces. Steve was a real CEO, he does not subcontract to other people demonstrating products Apple. He argued, what is their value and uniqueness. By the way, this is a sacred game of marketing — to prove the value of our products.
Not least, I learned from Jobs: some things you just need to believe! Because usually they say: I first need to see. Some had to see aypad, iPhone, Google. Special gift, intuition suggests that we must take and believe in what you do — then do it. And the most important lesson from Steve and the company Apple: the real innovation is to make the world better.
By the way
— What phone do you use? — Guy Kawasaki asked Leonid Parfenov in the days of "Innoprome." — I have no iPhone — smiling, said Guy Kawasaki, in a time when nearly half of the thousands of people sitting in the audience, proudly raised iPhone as proof that they are a happy owners. I use a Samsung, Galaxy-3, based on Android, — confessed Guy Kawasaki (by the way, had flown to Yekaterinburg on a private jet.) — For one more lesson that I learned from Steve: you have to always think differently, break down stereotypes, do not go with the crowd. Android — better working system than the iPhone, and I'm not afraid to admit it.
I do not want to be Baba-Yaga, but still …
Susan Greenfield, Baroness, world renowned biotechnologist, a member of the UK House of Lords, the author of many cutting-edge work on the physiology of the human brain:
— You know, we need to ask ourselves how we will create a future, not what it will be. We should not wait for a goldfish, we just have to do to make the world the way we want it to be. Finally, we differ from goldfish? I fish a very narrow repertoire of behavior, and we are unique, one takes more ecological niches. And the main thing is that a person can think. Moreover, systems of thought, the relationship between brain cells are constantly evolving, which allows a person to adapt to all new unpredictable conditions. A feeling that the brain "locked" incredibly powerful generator. Here is just one example of how the human adaptation to unexpected situations new to him. Researchers took three groups of volunteers who had never played the piano. The first group of five days just was allowed to play the piano. Second — shows a simple exercise and let's play. A third had to imagine that they play the piano. Brain scans of volunteers later showed that there were changes in all three groups. And in the third, no less than in the other two. Our brain is changing from what we represent, what we feel.
We were born in the world of the senses: delicious, cold, hot. We have developed a system of feelings. So advanced that we experience emotion, just looking at an object. And the emotional state with respect to the same subject matter may vary depending on the circumstances. Here, for example, the wedding ring. It is cold, hard, when it is a simple thing for us. Feelings change as we walk down the aisle with this ring. And if it goes to a divorce, a person may experience in relation to the ring and do diametrically opposite feelings. There is a unique configuration of the connections between the cells, which is determined by our unique life. That makes us unique.
The real world around us is unprecedented. And the fact that it seems so simple, everyday, has on the development of our brain's amazing effects. For example, my late father could just walk up and hug me by the shoulders, look me in the eyes, and we understand each other without words. There was a non-transferable range of feelings and sensations. This happens to all of us. Us it is enough to look for a second at each other to "scan" that each one of us at heart. It is now, in the real world. But, please note, we are no longer remain in the virtual world. Some "live" in it prohibitively much. There are statistics: the average U.S. resident spends at the computer and TV for 4-5 hours a day. This is an average, some — more. What happens if we iterate through this "diet"? You see, I would not like Baba Yaga, oppose technology. But we must do so in order to serve us, not destroy us.
What will happen if we do not train our senses, so we need for normal, healthy development? If we spend all the time in the cyberworld? You see, there is a very dangerous trend. There are studies that say that empathy, sensitivity decreases human by 48%, he is constantly in the cyberworld. And this is very dangerous — we actually get acquired autism, constantly using the computer, not getting out of social networking and being isolated. And the closer the computer connection, the more isolated people. Studies show that increasing the percentage of children with autism, a growing number of people taking drugs to improve attention. I think this is a result of including the loss of a living, personal communication. It can not be replaced. Smell pheromones, look, movement of the arms, head rotation, physical contact — its history, humanity has developed a unique language. Having lost his or making flawed, it will be very difficult to understand each other. Ask today that, for example, the meaning of "honor", and it will take a lot of information — from the concept of the girl's honor to honor the officers. And we all understand it perfectly. But if we understand the Martian? Yes, it will read in the "Google", which it is, but do not understand the metaphors associated with this concept. To understand the game of words, metaphors, jokes, you need to communicate with each other, you need to read classic literature. In other words, you just need to live in the real world.
We should not lose. You see, technology has always been a means to an end. And not vice versa. And now the part of "blanket", which they have won over, we need to pull back. To prevent the uprising machines. We need to be clear, then, what goal we are trying to achieve by applying technology. What knowledge, what skills? And it will allow us to replay technology, subdue them. We need people to have the opportunity to develop their identity, uniqueness. Still, the apotheosis of the human brain was the work. And if the process is twisted to the opposite direction, it can become dangerous.
Elena Matsiong — "Ural worker", "Voice of Russia"